614
FXUS61 KAKQ 180738
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
338 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT LINGERS OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND A RETURN
TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED INTO THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 305 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NC FOR PEAK
HEAT INDICES OF 105-109 F THIS AFTERNOON.
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED JUST N OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. STRONG BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ALSO REMAINS
OFFSHORE. THE FLOW ALOFT IS PRIMARY WESTERLY/ZONAL WITH A RIDGE
SITUATED JUST OFF THE SE COAST. NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGHER
CLOUDS FROM LEFTOVER CONVECTION TO OUR W. A VERY MILD NIGHT IS
ONGOING WITH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S INLAND AND LOWER 80S AT THE
COAST AND ON THE EASTERN SHORE.
THE MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION. HOWEVER, BEFORE INITIATION OCCURS,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WARM QUICKLY INTO THE 90S. THE WARMEST
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN NE NC WHERE THE BEST OVERLAP OF TEMPS IN THE
MID 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S IS EXPECTED. HEAT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM-8 PM FOR NE NC WITH PEAK HEAT
INDICES OF 105-109 F. ELSEWHERE, IT WILL STILL FEEL QUITE HOT AND
HUMID BEFORE STORMS DEVELOP WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 98-105 F.
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE, STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL FORCED
PREDOMINANTLY BY AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE/SHORTWAVE
ALOFT, WITH STORMS TENDING TO FOCUS ALONG AND SW OF THE SFC BOUNDARY
AS THEY MOVE S-SE THROUGH OUR CWA. HOWEVER, THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
DISCREPANCY ACROSS THE HI-RES GUIDANCE AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS FOCUSES AND THIS SEEMS TO BE TRACED TO
THE POSITIONING OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. STILL, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
DEPICTS STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W/NW BY 2-4 PM, TRACKING S-SE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE COULD ALSO BE EARLIER-DAY CONVECTION
(12 PM-3 PM) ACROSS THE SE ALONG THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY, AS
DEPICTED BY THE 00Z HRW-NSSL AND EXPERIMENTAL MPAS MODELS. THIS IS
ALSO WHERE IT WILL BE HOTTEST AND MOST HUMID (AND THUS WHERE THE
MOST INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE). WITH EPS/GEFS MEAN PWAT VALUES OF
~2.2", HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. FLOODING IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EXACERBATED IN AREAS
THAT HAVE RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL VA. LOCALLY
CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH SOME
GUIDANCE DEPICTING ISOLATED SPOTS SEEING UPWARDS OF 3-6" IN AREAS OF
LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. WPC HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2
OUT OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE AREA (OUTSIDE OF
THE EASTERN SHORE), WITH A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 4) JUST NW
OF OUR CWA. DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY, THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THE MODERATE RISK COULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED
FURTHER SE. IN THIS VAIN, THE PREVIOUSLY-ISSUED FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT TODAY AND HAVE EXTENDED IT ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES ON
EASTERN FLANK TO MATCH SOME GUIDANCE (HRRR/RRFS) SHOWING HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS. LASTLY, GIVEN AMPLE
INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG) AND AROUND 30 KT OF WESTERLY
FLOW AT 500 MB, SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS GROW UPSCALE INTO
CLUSTERS. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG OUTFLOW
AND WITHIN DOWNBURSTS. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF WIDESPREAD STORM
ACTIVITY AND THE STRONG-SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL, SPC HAS UPGRADED
MOST OF THE AREA TO A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT 5) WITH THEIR
LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD DROP OFF TONIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING.
HOWEVER, LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS NE NC AND
POTENTIALLY ON THE EASTERN SHORE. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP
INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 320 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY ALONG WITH
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUING.
- A LOWER COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN VA AND NORTHEAST NC.
SIMILAR STORY FOR SATURDAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOCAL AREA. W-NW FLOW ALOFT ALSO ALLOWS FOR REMNANT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO SPILL INTO MID-ATLANTIC REGION, TRIGGERING
ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION. POPS ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS
TODAY, BUT AM STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS AGAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN, ESPECIALLY SINCE
ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 2-3" (ON TOP OF WHAT FALLS TODAY) ARE
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. IN FACT, MEAN ENSEMBLE PWAT VALUES FROM THE
LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INCH UP EVEN FURTHER TO 2.2-2.3". WPC
CONTINUES A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AND ADDITIONAL FLOOD WATCHES MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR SATURDAY.
WHILE A STRONG STORM OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE, THE OVERALL SEVERE
RISK APPEARS LOWER WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR A TAD WEAKER. REMAINING HOT
AND HUMID WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S. ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR NE NC WHERE HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 F
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE. UP TOWARDS THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE,
TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER AND IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER-MID 90S, RESPECTIVELY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 70S.
WARMER AREAWIDE FOR SUNDAY AS THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS INCREASE.
FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S POSSIBLE IN
NE NC. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY AGAIN BE REQUIRED FOR SRN VA AND NE
NC. WITH THE HEIGHT RISES, A LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, CHANCE POPS (30-40%) ARE STILL IN PLACE
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA GIVEN THE HOT/HUMID/UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S N
TO MID- UPPER 70S S. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE FAR NW.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- GENERALLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY FOR THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER SUNDAY
AND THIS SHOULD ACTUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DECENT PUSH OF
COLD/DRY ADVECTION AND HIGHS MONDAY MAY "ONLY" BE IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WOULD ALSO MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE COMPARED TO THE OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY WE'VE SEEN FOR
MOST OF JULY. SIMILAR TEMPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.
WITH TROUGHING PERSISTING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A SFC HIGH
SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES, MAINLY DRY WX IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, N-NW FLOW ALOFT ARGUES WITH KEEPING SLIGHT CHC POPS
AROUND DURING THIS TIME. A LARGE RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO
EXPAND OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE-
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 225 AM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING PERIOD TODAY, WITH SW WINDS AVERAGING ~5
KT. BY 14-15Z, EXPECT CU DEVELOPMENT WITH BASES 3-5K FT AGL AS
WINDS BRIEFLY TURN N-NE NEAR A COLD FRONT. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT
W/NW OF RIC AND MOVE SE LATER THIS EVENING TOWARD THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER ON THE EASTERN
SHORE, INCLUDING AT SBY. GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS/STORMS, WILL HAVE PREVAILING -SHRA AT RIC, PHF, ORF, AND
ECG AND PROB30 GROUPS TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IFR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS FROM STORMS (MAINLY DUE TO VSBY). HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT SBY, THOUGH, AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER HERE. STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED STRONG WIND
GUSTS. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP OF AFTER 00Z, WITH
LINGERING ACTIVITY LIKELY ACROSS THE SE. LOW STRATUS OR FOG
COULD DEVELOP CLOSER TO 06Z SATURDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
AND DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION.
OUTLOOK: UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS/STORMS. A LOWER COVERAGE
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY-TUESDAY. PRIMARILY VFR OUTSIDE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
MARINE
AS OF 205 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING.
- WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF BRIEF
SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER BAY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WITH BUILDING SEAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES.
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL TUESDAY-FRIDAY WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OUT IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. TO THE NORTH, A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ AND JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DROP TOWARD THE DELMARVA EARLY THIS MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SSW 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO
~ 20 KT. SEAS AVERAGED 2-3 FT, WITH WAVES ~1 FT ON THE BAY, SOUND
AND E VA RIVERS.
THE PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS LATER THIS MORNING, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE
W THEN NW ~10KT BY 8-10 AM, THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
DEVELOPING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE, BRINGING WINDS ONSHORE WITH WIND
SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KT. AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE TODAY, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF SMWS ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
WINDMILL POINT.
THAT FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH S-SW FLOW RESUMING OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ALSO
EXPECTED TO PERSIST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN ZONES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE N THEN NE AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT. NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE THEN FORECAST THROUGH
TUE. WHILE THE GRIDDED FORECAST DOESN'T DEPICT SCA CONDITIONS, CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCAS DURING THE
MON/TUE TIMEFRAME.
1-2 FT WAVES AND ~2-3 FT SEAS PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. IF THE
STRONGER NE SURGE DOES COME TO PASS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, SEAS
COULD INCREASE TO ~3-4 FT IN STRONGER SE SWELL MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES. FOR NOW, HAVE
MAINTAINED 2- 3 FT SEAS IN ANTICIPATION OF A WEAKER FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY
AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 205 AM EDT FRIDAY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER RIVER IN
DENDRON. HOWEVER, THE GAUGE INDICATES THE RIVER HAS CRESTED AND
WILL FALL BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS MORNING.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
VAZ084-090-092-093-095>098-523>525.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-079>083-087>089-509>520.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...KMC/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...ERI/MAM
HYDROLOGY...
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