614
FXUS61 KAKQ 181511
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1111 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING
NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT LINGERS
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED
INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1110 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT.
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NC FOR PEAK HEAT
INDICES OF 105-109 F THIS AFTERNOON.
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW SITUATED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA,
ROUGHLY FROM THE CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE VA
EASTERN SHORE. A REMNANT MCV OVER OH/WV CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH SOMEWHAT ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW
(30-35 KT AT 500MB) JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THAT FEATURE OVER WV/VA.
TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S-MID 90S (HIGHEST IN NE NC WHERE HEAT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM)...BUT THE MAIN STORY TODAY
IS THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
THESE STORMS WILL BE FORCED PREDOMINANTLY BY THE APPROACHING
MCV/SHORTWAVE ALOFT, WITH STORMS TENDING TO FOCUS ALONG AND SW OF
THE SFC BOUNDARY AS THEY MOVE SE THROUGH OUR CWA. THE INCOMING 12Z
CAMS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND CONVECTIVE
MODE. DRY WX CONTINUES THROUGH 2-4 PM (OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SEA/BAY BREEZE STORM). TSTMS THEN QUICKLY DEVELOP/MOVE INTO
THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTN BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 3-
11 PM (ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LATEST CAMS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION
MOVES FASTER/EXITS BY 9 PM). THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR STORMS IS 2-
6 PM IN THE PIEDMONT, 4-8 PM ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR, AND 6-10 PM IN
SE VA/NE NC. ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY NEAR
THE POTOMAC AND OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, WITH THE LOWEST TSTM CHANCES
IN OUR MD COUNTIES. WITH EPS/GEFS MEAN PWAT VALUES OF ~2.2", HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN DESPITE MEAN
STORM MOTIONS ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KNOTS. RAIN RATES WILL LIKELY BE
2-4" PER HOUR WITHIN THE STORMS. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, FLOODING
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EXACERBATED IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL VA. 1" OF RAIN IN 30-60 MINUTES WILL BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN THESE AREAS, AND 2-4" WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING. THE 12Z HREF STILL HAS 10-30%
PROBS OF 3"/3 HOUR ACROSS CENTRAL/SE VA AND NE NC LATER TODAY...SO
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3-4" ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WPC HAS MAINTAINED
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MOST OF
THE AREA (OUTSIDE OF THE EASTERN SHORE), WITH A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL
3 OUT OF 4) JUST NW OF OUR CWA. THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF OUR AREA (EXCEPT THE EASTERN SHORE AND NORTHERN NECK)
UNTIL 12-4 AM.
THERE IS ALSO A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN AMPLE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 2000-
3000 J/KG) AND 25-30 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR (THANKS TO THE ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA). THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO
ORGANIZE INTO (OUTFLOW DOMINANT) CLUSTERS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. THE
MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG OUTFLOW AND WITHIN
DOWNBURSTS. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF WIDESPREAD STORM ACTIVITY AND
THE STRONG-SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL, SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OUT 5) ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD DROP OFF TONIGHT GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING.
HOWEVER, LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS NE NC AND
POTENTIALLY ON THE EASTERN SHORE. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP
INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 320 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY ALONG WITH
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUING.
- A LOWER COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN VA AND NORTHEAST NC.
SIMILAR STORY FOR SATURDAY AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOCAL AREA. W-NW FLOW ALOFT ALSO ALLOWS FOR REMNANT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO SPILL INTO MID-ATLANTIC REGION, TRIGGERING
ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION. POPS ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS
TODAY, BUT AM STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS AGAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN, ESPECIALLY SINCE
ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 2-3" (ON TOP OF WHAT FALLS TODAY) ARE
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. IN FACT, MEAN ENSEMBLE PWAT VALUES FROM THE
LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INCH UP EVEN FURTHER TO 2.2-2.3". WPC
CONTINUES A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AND ADDITIONAL FLOOD WATCHES MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR SATURDAY.
WHILE A STRONG STORM OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE, THE OVERALL SEVERE
RISK APPEARS LOWER WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR A TAD WEAKER. REMAINING HOT
AND HUMID WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S. ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR NE NC WHERE HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 F
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE. UP TOWARDS THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE,
TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER AND IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER-MID 90S, RESPECTIVELY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 70S.
WARMER AREAWIDE FOR SUNDAY AS THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS INCREASE.
FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH A FEW MID 90S POSSIBLE IN
NE NC. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY AGAIN BE REQUIRED FOR SRN VA AND NE
NC. WITH THE HEIGHT RISES, A LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, CHANCE POPS (30-40%) ARE STILL IN PLACE
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA GIVEN THE HOT/HUMID/UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S N
TO MID- UPPER 70S S. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE FAR NW.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- GENERALLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY FOR THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER SUNDAY
AND THIS SHOULD ACTUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DECENT PUSH OF
COLD/DRY ADVECTION AND HIGHS MONDAY MAY "ONLY" BE IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WOULD ALSO MAKE IT FEEL MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE COMPARED TO THE OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY WE'VE SEEN FOR
MOST OF JULY. SIMILAR TEMPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.
WITH TROUGHING PERSISTING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A SFC HIGH
SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES, MAINLY DRY WX IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, N-NW FLOW ALOFT ARGUES WITH KEEPING SLIGHT CHC POPS
AROUND DURING THIS TIME. A LARGE RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO
EXPAND OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND DEEP SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE-
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 605 AM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD TODAY. BY 14-15Z, EXPECT CU
DEVELOPMENT WITH BASES 3-5K FT AGL AS WINDS BRIEFLY TURN N-NE
NEAR A COLD FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT W/NW OF RIC AND MOVE SE LATER
THIS EVENING TOWARD THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THE COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOWER ON THE EASTERN SHORE, INCLUDING AT SBY.
GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/STORMS, WILL HAVE PREVAILING
SHRA AT RIC, PHF, ORF, AND ECG AND PROB30 GROUPS TO HIGHLIGHT
POTENTIAL IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM STORMS (MAINLY DUE TO
VSBY). HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT SBY, THOUGH, AGAIN,
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER HERE. STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED
STRONG WIND GUSTS. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP OFF
AFTER 00Z, WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY LIKELY ACROSS THE SE. LOW
STRATUS OR FOG COULD DEVELOP CLOSER TO 06Z SATURDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AND DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION.
FOR NOW, WILL SHOW SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS (EXCEPT ECG) WITH MVFR
VSBY AS WELL AT RIC TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS/STORMS. A LOWER COVERAGE
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY-TUESDAY. PRIMARILY VFR OUTSIDE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
MARINE
AS OF 205 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING.
- WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF BRIEF
SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER BAY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WITH BUILDING SEAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES.
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL TUESDAY-FRIDAY WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OUT IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. TO THE NORTH, A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ AND JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DROP TOWARD THE DELMARVA EARLY THIS MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SSW 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO
~ 20 KT. SEAS AVERAGED 2-3 FT, WITH WAVES ~1 FT ON THE BAY, SOUND
AND E VA RIVERS.
THE PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS LATER THIS MORNING, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE
W THEN NW ~10KT BY 8-10 AM, THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
DEVELOPING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE, BRINGING WINDS ONSHORE WITH WIND
SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KT. AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE TODAY, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF SMWS ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
WINDMILL POINT.
THAT FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH S-SW FLOW RESUMING OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ALSO
EXPECTED TO PERSIST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN ZONES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE N THEN NE AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT. NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE THEN FORECAST THROUGH
TUE. WHILE THE GRIDDED FORECAST DOESN'T DEPICT SCA CONDITIONS, CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCAS DURING THE
MON/TUE TIMEFRAME.
1-2 FT WAVES AND ~2-3 FT SEAS PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. IF THE
STRONGER NE SURGE DOES COME TO PASS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, SEAS
COULD INCREASE TO ~3-4 FT IN STRONGER SE SWELL MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES. FOR NOW, HAVE
MAINTAINED 2- 3 FT SEAS IN ANTICIPATION OF A WEAKER FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY
AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 1110 AM EDT FRIDAY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER RIVER IN
DENDRON. RIVER LEVELS HAVE STARTED TO RISE AGAIN, SO THE WARNING
HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING (AND WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER).
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032-102.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR VAZ084-090-092-093-095>098-523>525.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-
079>083-087>089-509>520.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...ERI/SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...KMC/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...ERI/MAM
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
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