563
FXUS61 KAKQ 171909
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
309 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND
LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MID-WEEK. THE FRONT FINALLY CROSSES
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATER THIS WEEK. HURRICANE ERIN WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IMPACTS WILL BE FELT WELL OUTSIDE THE
FORECAST CONE INCLUDING LARGE WAVES, DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS,
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
WATERS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
AS OF 130 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH
100 DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
A BIT OF A UNIQUE SET UP OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
"DRIEST" AIR LOCATED ALONG THE COAST AS DRIER AIR IS GETTING
WRAPPED INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST (SEEN IN GOES WV IMAGERY). DEWPOINT ARE IN THE 60S TO
EVEN UPPER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
70S FURTHER INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO SITUATED SOUTH OF THE
AREA. SKIES RANGE FROM CLEAR/SUNNY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA TO MOSTLY SUNNY FURTHER INLAND. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
TRIED TO DEVELOP OVER CHARLOTTE AND HALIFAX COUNTIES JUST WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT WOULD NOT EXPECT THESE TO MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS FURTHER EAST WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR THE LOW TO MID 90S MOST OF
THE AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
100 ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE WE ARE SEEING THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
MOST 17/12Z CAMS STILL DEPICT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DROPPING INTO CENTRAL VA, THE NORTHERN NECK, AND THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE THIS EVENING, WITH THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATING
OVERNIGHT. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE WELL
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT, WITH THE BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. POPS FOR THESE
LOCATIONS ARE 20-40%, WITH 20% OR LESS ELSEWHERE. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER WIND GUST AND/OR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT THE OVERALL THREAT IS LOW. FORECAST
LOWS TONIGHT ARE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COLD FRONT LINGERS OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY LEADING TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
THE COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND STALLS OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
FRONT ON MONDAY LEADING TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE TRICKY AND
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY (AND HOW FAR SOUTH) THE FRONT DROPS
INTO THE AREA. WE MAY SEE A SCENARIO WHERE TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE
70S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND MAY EVEN FALL DURING
THE DAY AS A WEDGE SETS UP OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH
THE NBM, WHICH HAS HIGHS AROUND 80 NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH, BUT WE
WILL MAY SEE THIS TREND DOWN ON FUTURE FORECASTS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE
AREA, BUT THE BEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD MAINLY BE LIMITED
TO FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DIP BACK IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST. COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LINGER
INTO TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT STILL STALLED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE
MID 80S SOUTH (THESE COULD TREND LOWER). ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HURRICANE ERIN IS LIKELY TO STAY WELL OFFSHORE OF THE LOCAL AREA
AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH LATER THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, IMPACTS
WILL HAPPEN WELL OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST CONE, WITH LARGE WAVES,
STRONG RIP CURRENTS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
COAST ALL POSSIBLE.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COMFORTABLE BY THE LATER PORTION OF THE
WEEK.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE HURRICANE ERIN AND JUST
HOW CLOSE IT TRACKS TO THE LOCAL AREA. THE GENERAL 17/12Z
ENSEMBLE/MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SYSTEM RECURVING WELL
OFFSHORE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THIS IS THANKS TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF
A TROUGH TO OUR NORTH BY MID-WEEK WHICH WILL SHUNT THE UPPER RIDGE
BACK TO THE WEST. AS THIS TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD, IT WILL CREATE A
WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW ALOFT AND STEER ERIN TOWARDS THE NORTH THEN
NORTHEAST. WE DO HOWEVER WANT TO STRESS THAT IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM
WILL OCCUR WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER DUE TO AN EXPANDING STORM/WIND-
FIELD AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO HIGHER LATITUDES. THE MAIN THREATS ARE
STILL FOR LARGE WAVES, DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS, AND COASTAL FLOODING
(SEE MORE DETAILS BELOW), BUT WE MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS
TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST (ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF VIRGINIA BEACH) LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION,
IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OUTER RAINBANDS MAY CLIP FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, POTENTIALLY BRINGING LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN OR STRONGER WINDS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FROM NHC IN
REGARDS TO HURRICANE ERIN.
OTHERWISE, A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY (HELPING TO PUSH ERIN OUT TO SEA). COOLER/MORE
COMFORTABLE WEATHER LATER IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN THE 20-30% RANGE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THURSDAY
IS TRENDING DRIER BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. THERE IS A 20-40% CHC OF
EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS AT RIC AND SBY (BEST TIMING ~02 TO 06Z),
WHICH MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE, DRY AND VFR TONIGHT WITH A CALM TO LIGHT WIND. MVFR
CIGS TRY TO DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING/LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS IS AT SBY AND RIC.
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR CIGS DEVELOP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW
MORNING AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING
DUE TO CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. IN ADDITION, PASSING AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 335 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING INCREASING NE WINDS.
- LARGE SWELL AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY AND CONTINUING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
HURRICANE ERIN TRACKS THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS
ONGOING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
HAS MOVED FURTHER OUT INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC, WHICH HAS
ALLOWED THE GRADIENT TO RELAX ACROSS THE AREA AND CAUSED WINDS
TO DIMINISH. GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE BEING MEASURED
BY MARINE OBSERVATION SITES. WAVES IN THE BAY ARE AROUND 1 FT,
WITH SEAS OF 2- 4 FT IN THE OCEAN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS
THE FRONT STARTS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY, WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME DEVIATION IN JUST HOW
STRONG THE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. HAVE NUDGED WINDS UP A LITTLE BIT ON MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT HAVE KEPT WINDS GENERALLY
BELOW SCA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY TRENDS IN GUIDANCE
FOR POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND ADJUST THE
FORECAST AS NECESSARY.
HURRICANE ERIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING WNW AND IS LOCATED NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO. THE CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK WITH ERIN
TURNING FAR ENOUGH NORTH PASSING BETWEEN THE COAST AND BERMUDA,
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE THE US COAST. THE WIND FIELD OF
HURRICANE ERIN IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUITE EXPANSIVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NE AND
HURRICANE ERIN WILL CAUSE NE WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED ON TUESDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. AS ERIN SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH OFFSHORE, THE
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE STRONGEST MID TO LATE
THIS WEEK WITH SCA WINDS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE THURSDAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ERIN WILL BE THE INCREASED
WAVES. 4-6 FT SWELL (POTENTIALLY UP TO 8 FT) WILL APPROACH THE
AREA TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING, PEAKING AT 8-12 FT (4-6 FT IN THE CHES.
BAY). WAVES GREATER THAN 5 FT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEK IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE SWELL AND MODERATE PERIODS, A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL BEACHES TODAY. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK
IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK BEGINNING TUESDAY AS LARGE LONG PERIOD
SWELL (12-16S) ARRIVES AHEAD OF HURRICANE ERIN. HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE WEEK AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ650.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/AJZ
LONG TERM...AJB/AJZ
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...KMC/NB
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