088
FXUS61 KAKQ 191946
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
346 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
HURRICANE ERIN WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY, BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING FARTHER OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. IMPACTS WILL BE FELT WELL OUTSIDE THE FORECAST CONE
INCLUDING LARGE WAVES AND TIDAL FLOODING, DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS,
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, AND
POTENTIALLY A FEW OUTER RAIN BANDS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND ERIN INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 1000 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
ALOFT, A TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE E CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A
SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR/OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH
HURRICANE ERIN LOCATED WELL OFF THE COAST OF FL. WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW. PORTIONS OF THE
VA EASTERN SHORE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED UP TO ~5" OF RAIN TODAY WITH
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUING TO FALL. THESE SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY 1" OR MORE OF RAIN OVER AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN
FLOODING. AS SUCH, FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL AFTER 5
PM FOR ACCOMACK AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY, LOCALLY
HEAVIER RAIN AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT HEAVIER SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING
WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME OVERNIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE INLAND.
TEMPS AS OF 3 PM RANGED FROM THE LOWER 70S N TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS
NE NC (WHERE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WERE NOTED). LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS, PORTIONS OF NE NC, AND PORTIONS OF SE VA.
- HURRICANE ERIN IS LIKELY TO STAY OFFSHORE OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, IMPACTS WILL HAPPEN WELL OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST
CONE, WITH LARGE WAVES, STRONG RIP CURRENTS, COASTAL FLOODING,
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST ALL POSSIBLE.
HURRICANE ERIN IS FORECAST TO TRACK N WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WEDNESDAY, BEFORE TURNING NE ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, A COASTAL
TROUGH LINGERS NEAR/ALONG THE COAST. AS SUCH, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS (AND ISOLATED STORMS) ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
WED AFTERNOON INTO THU WITH A GREATER CHANCE ON THU (35-50% POPS).
WHILE THE BULK OF HURRICANE ERIN'S RAIN REMAINS OFFSHORE, THE OUTER
BAND OF SHOWERS MAY REACH E PORTIONS OF THE FA ON THU. GIVEN THE
TROPICAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS NE NC TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS RISK ON THU.
SHOWERS QUICKLY TAPER OFF BY THU EVENING AS ERIN MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE AND DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
WHILE HURRICANE ERIN REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE, THE WIND FIELD WILL
LIKELY BE LARGE ENOUGH TO REACH FAR E PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH
TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE LATE WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THU WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF VIRGINIA BEACH, ACCOMACK, NORTHAMPTON, AND
CURRITUCK. GIVEN THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS (MAINLY IN THE FORM OF GUSTS) ALONG THE COAST, HAVE ISSUED
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR VIRGINIA BEACH AND CURRITUCK WITH
ADDITIONAL EXPANSIONS INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES POSSIBLE
IN FUTURE UPDATES. WILL NOTE THAT GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST (INCLUDING ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY),
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN REACHING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN
THESE AREAS WAS TOO LOW TO EXPAND THE WATCH FARTHER INLAND OR UP
THE BAY AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
POSSIBLE WILL INLAND TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. OTHER IMPACT FROM
ERIN INCLUDE VERY LARGE WAVES OF 10-15 FT OFF THE COAST,
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING (SEE MORE DETAILS BELOW). CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FROM NHC IN REGARDS TO HURRICANE ERIN.
OTHERWISE, A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ON WED WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S EXPECTED. TEMPS COOL THU AND FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BOTH DAYS. WILL NOTE THAT IF CLOUD COVER
MOVES IN QUICKER ON THU, HIGHS MAY REMAIN BELOW 80F ALONG AND N OF I-
64. LOWS COOL FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WED NIGHT TO THE LOW-MID
60S FOR MOST THU NIGHT. THE COOLEST TEMPS LOOK TO ARRIVE FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST, MID-UPPER 60S
ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS MAY DROP LOCALLY INTO THE UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND. DRY
CONDITIONS/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE
OVER THE AREA (DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND POSSIBLY UPPER 50S) WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, LEADING TO INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME, ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, EVENTUALLY CROSSING THE
LOCAL AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWER AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST (35-50% POPS). CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE NW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SE VA/NE NC LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY IMPACT ECG. AS
SUCH, HAVE ADDED A PROB30 AT ECG TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
ADDITIONAL DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. CIGS WERE IFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN A STABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND NE WINDS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
LIFR/VLIFR LATE TONIGHT WITH 100-400 FT CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN
6-13Z WED. THE LOWEST CIGS LIKELY REMAIN INLAND WITH RIC HAVING
THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIFR (OR LOWER) CIGS. HOWEVER, IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE AT ORF.
WINDS REMAIN NE 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, THEN BECOME NE/E 5-10 KT AGAIN ON WED.
CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WED MORNING WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR STORMS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ON WED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE N LATER IN THE WEEK AS HURRICANE ERIN TRACKS N THEN NE WELL
OFF THE COAST. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS S
OF CAPE CHARLES AS HURRICANE ERIN PASSES OFFSHORE, WITH THESE
CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
- DANGEROUS SEAS OF 10-15 FT ALSO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY.
- SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THE WEEKEND.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS LOCATED NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER THIS
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA. NE WINDS ARE 15-25
KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT NORTH OF THE FRONT, PARTICULARLY
IN THE UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS N OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS SOME. THEREFORE, THE SCA FOR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY IS ONLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10Z/6 AM THIS MORNING.
THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE
TO ELEVATED SEAS. FOR THE REST OF TODAY, EXPECT A CONTINUATION
OF THE NE WINDS, WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT IN THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY (HIGHEST N) AND 15-20 KT IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
POSITIONING OF THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IMPACTS THE
WIND FORECAST AS WELL. AT THIS TIME, WINDS SPEEDS IN THE BAY
APPEAR TO BE PREDOMINANTLY SUB-SCA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO LATER YESTERDAY, SCAS COULD BE RAISED IF
THERE IS AN OVER-PERFORMANCE IN THE WIND SPEEDS. WINDS THEN
DECREASE TO ~10 KT (OR LESS) LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
MEANWHILE, CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ERIN REMAINS WELL SE OF THE
AREA IN THE EASTERN BAHAMAS VICINITY THIS MORNING. THIS STORM
WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE MARINE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ERIN IS FORECAST TO TAKE ON A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION
LATER TODAY AND MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE NC OUTER BANKS
COASTLINE THURSDAY MORNING. BY THIS TIME, A NORTHEASTERLY MOTION
IS ANTICIPATED AND ERIN SHOULD BEGIN ACCELERATING WELL OUT INTO
THE OPEN ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DESPITE THE
OFFSHORE TRACK, THE LARGE (AND EXPANDING) WIND FIELD IS LIKELY
TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT MARINE THREAT AND DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE WATERS AND PARTICULARLY OVER OUR OCEAN ZONES.
THE TIME LINE OF GREATEST IMPACTS IS FROM LATER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 5- 8 FT BY
WEDNESDAY AND THEN 10-15 FT BY THURSDAY. WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 6-8 FT, WITH 4-6 FT
ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWER, MIDDLE, AND UPPER BAY. THE OTHER ASPECT
WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS AS THE LARGE WIND FIELD PASSES BY.
THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SLOWED ERIN'S
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION A TAD AND, THEREFORE, THE TIME LINE OF
STRONGEST WINDS. E-NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN 20-30 KT THURSDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS (25-35+
KT) ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE WIND DIRECTION BECOMES N/NNE AND WIND GUSTS PEAK AT
40-45 KT. LOCAL WIND PROBABILITIES ALSO SHOW SOME CHANCES FOR
50 KT WIND GUSTS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN S OF CAPE CHARLES AND,
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THESE
TS WATCHES WILL AT LEAST NEED TO EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO COVER THE
REMAINING OCEAN ZONES. THERE IS ALSO SOME POSSIBILITY FOR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER BAY.
SEAS/WAVES AND WINDS SHOULD (GRADUALLY) SUBSIDE BY FRIDAY AS
ERIN PULLS FURTHER AWAY. HOWEVER, LONG-PERIOD SWELL AND SEAS OF
5-7 FT LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. RATHER BENIGN/SUB-SCA
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE WIND DIRECTION
SHIFTS TO THE S.
RIP CURRENTS: WITH LONG-PERIOD (12-17S) SWELL BUILDING OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH FOR
THE ENTIRE WEEK. THESE RIP CURRENTS AND NEARSHORE BREAKING WAVES
OF 8+ FEET WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND
SWIMMERS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...
AS HURRICANE ERIN APPROACHES OFFSHORE, STRONG NE WINDS WILL
HELP FUNNEL WATER INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN REACHING MINOR FLOOD IS HIGHEST IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY, INCLUDING ALONG
THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND RAPPAHANNOCK. HOWEVER, WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME DUE TO TRANSIENT
NATURE OF THE THREAT WITH THIS INITIAL CYCLE, BUT THEY MAY BE
REQUIRED EVENTUALLY. FURTHER S/ELSEWHERE, ONLY NUISANCE FLOODING
(OR LESS) IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. ONCE ERIN APPROACHES CLOSER
OFFSHORE MID WEEK, WIDESPREAD MODERATE FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED
AT MOST GAUGES. SOME AREAS COULD ALSO APPROACH MAJOR FLOOD. WITH
THE CLOSER TRACK TO THE COAST AND HIGHER WIND SPEEDS, THE
"HIGHER" SOLUTIONS ARE LOOKING MORE PROBABLE. A COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS SOON AS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
THE HIGHER ANOMALIES FROM ERIN'S SWELL WILL LIKELY LINGER AFTER
ERIN MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE.
ADDITIONALLY, SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
EXTENDED DURATION OF THE LARGE, BREAKING WAVES. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NEARSHORE BREAKING WAVES OF 8-12 FT
FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
MDZ025.
NC...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NCZ017-102.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NCZ102.
VA...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ098>100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ075>078-
083-085-086-518-520>522.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ075>078-082>086-089-090-093-095>097-518-
520>525.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ANZ633-634-650-652-654-656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/RMM
LONG TERM...AJZ/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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