519
FXUS61 KAKQ 200558
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
158 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
HURRICANE ERIN WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY, BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING FARTHER OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. IMPACTS WILL BE FELT WELL OUTSIDE THE FORECAST CONE
INCLUDING LARGE WAVES AND TIDAL FLOODING, DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS,
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, AND
POTENTIALLY A FEW OUTER RAIN BANDS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND ERIN INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 938 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER CONTINUE TO PERSIST THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
ALOFT, A TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE E CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN NEAR/OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE
BAY WITH HURRICANE ERIN LOCATED WELL OFF THE COAST OF FL.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
LOW. THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY .5" OR MORE OF RAIN OVER
AREAS. ADDITIONALLY, LOCALLY TO LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SE VA AND NC THIS EVENING. EXPECT HEAVIER
SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, SOME
OVERNIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE INLAND. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS, PORTIONS OF NE NC, AND PORTIONS OF SE VA.
- HURRICANE ERIN IS LIKELY TO STAY OFFSHORE OF THE LOCAL AREA AS
IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, IMPACTS WILL HAPPEN WELL OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST
CONE, WITH LARGE WAVES, STRONG RIP CURRENTS, COASTAL FLOODING,
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST ALL POSSIBLE.
HURRICANE ERIN IS FORECAST TO TRACK N WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WEDNESDAY, BEFORE TURNING NE ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, A COASTAL
TROUGH LINGERS NEAR/ALONG THE COAST. AS SUCH, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS (AND ISOLATED STORMS) ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
WED AFTERNOON INTO THU WITH A GREATER CHANCE ON THU (35-50% POPS).
WHILE THE BULK OF HURRICANE ERIN'S RAIN REMAINS OFFSHORE, THE OUTER
BAND OF SHOWERS MAY REACH E PORTIONS OF THE FA ON THU. GIVEN THE
TROPICAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS NE NC TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS RISK ON THU.
SHOWERS QUICKLY TAPER OFF BY THU EVENING AS ERIN MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE AND DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
WHILE HURRICANE ERIN REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE, THE WIND FIELD WILL
LIKELY BE LARGE ENOUGH TO REACH FAR E PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH
TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE LATE WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THU WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF VIRGINIA BEACH, ACCOMACK, NORTHAMPTON, AND
CURRITUCK. GIVEN THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS (MAINLY IN THE FORM OF GUSTS) ALONG THE COAST, HAVE ISSUED
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR VIRGINIA BEACH AND CURRITUCK WITH
ADDITIONAL EXPANSIONS INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES POSSIBLE
IN FUTURE UPDATES. WILL NOTE THAT GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST (INCLUDING ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY),
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN REACHING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN
THESE AREAS WAS TOO LOW TO EXPAND THE WATCH FARTHER INLAND OR UP
THE BAY AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
POSSIBLE WILL INLAND TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. OTHER IMPACT FROM
ERIN INCLUDE VERY LARGE WAVES OF 10-15 FT OFF THE COAST,
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING (SEE MORE DETAILS BELOW). CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FROM NHC IN REGARDS TO HURRICANE ERIN.
OTHERWISE, A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ON WED WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S EXPECTED. TEMPS COOL THU AND FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BOTH DAYS. WILL NOTE THAT IF CLOUD COVER
MOVES IN QUICKER ON THU, HIGHS MAY REMAIN BELOW 80F ALONG AND N OF I-
64. LOWS COOL FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WED NIGHT TO THE LOW-MID
60S FOR MOST THU NIGHT. THE COOLEST TEMPS LOOK TO ARRIVE FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST, MID-UPPER 60S
ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS MAY DROP LOCALLY INTO THE UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND. DRY
CONDITIONS/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE
OVER THE AREA (DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND POSSIBLY UPPER 50S) WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, LEADING TO INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME, ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, EVENTUALLY CROSSING THE
LOCAL AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWER AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST (35-50% POPS). CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE NW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
1023MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TO ATLANTIC CANADA AS OF 06Z, AND CONTINUES TO RIDGE SW INTO
THE VA PIEDMONT. IFR/MVFR STRATUS COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION
ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY BR/DZ. STRATUS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
12-15Z. CIGS ARE LIKELY TO FALL TO IFR/LIFR FOR MOST SITES, WITH
THE LEAST CONFIDENCE AT ORF. VSBY IS EXPECTED TO FALL TO 2-5SM
IN BR/DZ, ESPECIALLY AND RIC, SBY, AND PHF, AND COULD FALL TO
LESS THAN 2SM AT RIC. CIGS LIFT AND SCATTER AFTER 15Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY THE AFTN. THERE IS A 15-30% CHC OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM DURING THE AFTN. THE WIND WILL
MAINLY BE ENE 5-10KT AND 8-12KT TOWARD THE COAST. HURRICANE ERIN
TRACKS NNE WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. BECOMING BREEZY AT ORF AND ECG LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A NE WIND INCREASING TO 15-25KT.
HURRICANE ERIN TRACKS NE WELL OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY,
WITH THE STRONGEST WIND AT ORF AND ECG. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURNS
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MARINE
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES. BAY, AS HURRICANE ERIN PASSES
OFFSHORE WITH PEAK CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
- DANGEROUS SEAS OF 10-15 FT AND SHORELINE/DUNE EROSION ARE LIKELY
ON THURSDAY.
- SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THE WEEKEND.
THE CURRENT WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK MESO LOW PRESSURE NEAR
THE MOUTH OF THE CHES. BAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR
THE AREA. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE, WINDS VARY OVER THE AREA WITH THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AT E 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT, THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATER AROUND 5 KT, THE NORTHERN CHES. BAY AT 10-15
KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT, AND THE SOUTHERN CHES. BAY AT N 10-15 KT.
WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT (AROUND 5-10 KT) AND TURN TO BE
MORE EASTERLY. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY ELEVATED AT 5-8 FT AND WAVES AT 1-
2 FT.
NOW CAT 2, HURRICANE ERIN REMAINS WELL SE OF THE AREA MOVING NNW
NEAR THE BAHAMAS. THIS STORM WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE MARINE
FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ERIN WILL TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY
APPROACH TOMORROW BEFORE TURNING TO THE NE AWAY FROM THE US COAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. DESPITE THE OFFSHORE TRACK, THE LARGE (AND
EXPANDING) WIND FIELD IS LIKELY TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT MARINE THREAT
AND DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS AND PARTICULARLY
OVER OUR OCEAN ZONES. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. WAVES WILL BEGIN BUILDING TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THEN PEAKING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING AFTER. PEAK SEAS
WILL BE 10-15 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND 5-7 FT IN THE CHES. BAY.
THE OTHER ASPECT WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS AS THE LARGE WIND
FIELD PASSES BY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, STRONGEST TO THE S. PEAKING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, NOW N WINDS WILL PEAK AT 30-35 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS, 25-35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 KT IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY, AND 20-30 KT WITH GUST UP TO 35 KT IN
THE BAY. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES. BAY.
ONCE ERIN MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE, THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE,
ALTHOUGH LINGER ELEVATED WAVES AND LONG PERIODS ARE LIKELY WELL INTO
THE WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, MOSTLY BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.
RIP CURRENTS: WITH LONG-PERIOD (12-17S) SWELL BUILDING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH FOR THE ENTIRE
WEEK. THESE RIP CURRENTS AND NEARSHORE BREAKING WAVES OF 8+ FEET
WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND SWIMMERS SHOULD
REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...
AS HURRICANE ERIN APPROACHES OFFSHORE, STRONG NE WINDS WILL HELP
FUNNEL WATER INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN REACHING MINOR FLOOD IS HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY, INCLUDING ALONG THE TIDAL
POTOMAC AND RAPPAHANNOCK. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THESE AREAS. FURTHER S/ELSEWHERE, ONLY NUISANCE FLOODING (OR
LESS) IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. ONCE ERIN APPROACHES CLOSER OFFSHORE
MID WEEK, WIDESPREAD MODERATE FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT MOST
GAUGES. SOME AREAS COULD ALSO APPROACH MAJOR FLOOD. COASTAL FLOOD
WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH TIDE CYCLES THAT EXPERIENCE MINOR OR
MODERATE FLOODING, AS THE HIGH ANOMALIES FROM ERIN'S SWELL LINGERS.
ADDITIONALLY, SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
EXTENDED DURATION OF THE LARGE, BREAKING WAVES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR NEARSHORE BREAKING WAVES OF 8-12 FT FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR MDZ025.
NC...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NCZ017-102.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR NCZ102.
VA...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ098>100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ075>078-085-521-522.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ075>078-082>086-089-090-093-095>097-518-
520>525.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ANZ632>634-650-652-654-656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/RMM
NEAR TERM...HET/RMM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/RMM
LONG TERM...AJZ/RMM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...KMC/SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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