323
FXUS61 KAKQ 200847
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
447 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
HURRICANE ERIN WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY, BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING FARTHER OUT TO SEA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOCAL IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE LARGE WAVES AND
COASTAL FLOODING, DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS, AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND ERIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 355 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOTTER TODAY WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND A MINIMAL CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GOES WATER VAPOR CHANNELS DEPICT AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC, WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES, AND
HURRICANE ERIN CHURNING NORTHWARD WELL E OF THE FL COAST (OR
ABOUT 495MI SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS, NC). AT THE SURFACE, 1023MB
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO ATLANTIC
CANADA, WITH A WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW IN VICINITY OF
THE VA WATERS OF THE CHES. BAY. STRATUS COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HURRICANE ERIN TO ACCELERATE N WELL OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE WEAK SURFACE LOW DISSIPATES TODAY, BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY THAT GRADUALLY PUSHES
INLAND TODAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. THE PERSISTENT ENE
FLOW OF THE PAST FEW DAYS SHOULD BE DISRUPTED BY THE APPROACH OF
ERIN AND THE UPPER TROUGH. THEREFORE, STRATUS CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER AND LIFT THIS MORNING. WARMER TODAY AND HUMID WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOCALLY UPPER 80S (LOWER 80S AT THE
COAST), AND MAX HEAT INDICES OF 90-95F.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CURRITUCK COUNTY, NC, THE COASTAL
WATERS, THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER, WITH
WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF SE VA.
- HURRICANE ERIN IS LIKELY TO STAY OFFSHORE OF THE LOCAL AREA
AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, IMPACTS WILL HAPPEN WELL OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST CONE, WITH LARGE WAVES, STRONG RIP CURRENTS, COASTAL
FLOODING, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST ALL POSSIBLE.
HURRICANE ERIN BEGINS TO TAKE AN NORTHEASTERLY TURN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS IT IS INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC
UPPER JET DEVELOPING TO THE N OF ERIN. THIS WILL CAUSE AN
EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELD TO THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE
HURRICANE. THEREFORE, BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ARRIVE FROM THE NW. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WARNING FROM DUCK TO THE VA/NC BORDER (CURRITUCK
COUNTY), WITH REMAINING TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WHERE CONFIDENCE
FOR 34KT TS WIND IS LOWER. ALL MARINE ZONES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED
TO TS WARNINGS WITH THE CHES. BAY ADDED FROM NEW POINT COMFORT
TO SMITH POINT AS WELL AS THE LOWER JAMES RIVER. LESS FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS OVER WATER YIELD HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR TS/GALE FORE
WIND. ALSO, A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ADDED FOR THE MD BEACHES.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WHERE THE RRQ COULD ENHANCE SOME RAIN BANDS,
BUT OVERALL THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/RAINFALL FLOODING THREAT IS
QUITE LOW AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL OCCUR AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS (IN ADDITION TO WIND ALONG
THE COAST) CONTINUE TO BE COASTAL FLOODING, HIGH WAVES/BEACH
EROSION, AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. THAT IS COVERED IN MORE
DETAIL BELOW. FARTHER INLAND, A NORTHERLY WIND SHOULD GUSTS TO
20-30 MPH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, AND 35-40 MPH CLOSER TO THE
COAST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FROM NHC IN REGARDS TO
HURRICANE ERIN.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BOTH DAYS. LOW TEMPERATURES
COOL FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE LOW-
MID 60S FOR MOST THU NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 355 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AFTER MORNING LOWS
IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE OVER THE AREA
(DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND POSSIBLY UPPER 50S) WHICH WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE
SUNDAY, LEADING TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. DURING
THE SAME TIMEFRAME, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY, EVENTUALLY CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA LATER SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY SLIDE UP
THE COAST AS WELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST (35-50% POPS).
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH
DIGGING IN FROM THE NW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
1023MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TO ATLANTIC CANADA AS OF 06Z, AND CONTINUES TO RIDGE SW INTO
THE VA PIEDMONT. IFR/MVFR STRATUS COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION
ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY BR/DZ. STRATUS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
12-15Z. CIGS ARE LIKELY TO FALL TO IFR/LIFR FOR MOST SITES, WITH
THE LEAST CONFIDENCE AT ORF. VSBY IS EXPECTED TO FALL TO 2-5SM
IN BR/DZ, ESPECIALLY AND RIC, SBY, AND PHF, AND COULD FALL TO
LESS THAN 2SM AT RIC. CIGS LIFT AND SCATTER AFTER 15Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY THE AFTN. THERE IS A 15-30% CHC OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM DURING THE AFTN. THE WIND WILL
MAINLY BE ENE 5-10KT AND 8-12KT TOWARD THE COAST. HURRICANE ERIN
TRACKS NNE WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST. BECOMING BREEZY AT ORF AND ECG LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A NE WIND INCREASING TO 15-25KT.
HURRICANE ERIN TRACKS NE WELL OFF THE COAST THURSDAY.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY,
WITH THE STRONGEST WIND AT ORF AND ECG. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURNS
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MARINE
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
- TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS,
CHESAPEAKE BAY, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND LOWER JAMES RIVER. THE
MOST HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- DANGEROUS SEAS OF 10-20 FT AND SHORELINE/DUNE EROSION ARE
LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
- SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THE WEEKEND.
CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ERIN, WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85
KT/100 MPH, IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS THIS
MORNING. LOCALLY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY VICINITY. THIS
IS EVIDENT BY THE EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION N OF WINDMILL PT IN
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND A WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION TO
THE S. THE GENERAL EXPECTATION THROUGH TODAY IS FOR THE
BOUNDARY TO BECOME DIFFUSE OR LIFT N, WITH A AN EASTERLY WIND
DIRECTION FOR ALL WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS THIS MORNING
ARE 6-8 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN SUB- SCA THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY, BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE ERIN OFFSHORE.
THE BRUNT OF THE MARINE IMPACTS FROM ERIN ARE STILL EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY AS THE STORM PASSES SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE. DESPITE THE OFFSHORE TRACK, THE WIND
FIELD IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND FURTHER AND THE EXTENT OF THE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE VERY LARGE. THIS WIND FIELD
IS LIKELY TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT MARINE THREAT AND DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS AND PARTICULARLY OVER OUR
OCEAN ZONES. NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO
25-35 KT (HIGHEST S) TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS PEAK IN THE
25-35 KT RANGE LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WIND DIRECTION BECOMES N/NNE. WIND
GUSTS OF 40-45 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF OUR COASTAL WATERS,
THE CURRITUCK SOUND, AND SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES IN THESE LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER BAY
AND LOWER JAMES RIVER THURSDAY, GENERALLY IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE.
TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH TROPICAL VS. NON-TROPICAL HEADLINES,
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE LOWER
JAMES AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS WELL. SUB-34 KT
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER RIVERS SO HAVE ISSUED A
SCA FROM 05Z/1 AM THU TO 11Z/7 AM FRI. SLOWLY SUBSIDING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A 20-25 KT N WIND. BY
FRIDAY, WIND SPEEDS DROP OFF TO 15- 20 KT, WITH 10-15 KT BY THE
AFTERNOON IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND RIVERS. MUCH CALMER WINDS
PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND, THOUGH ELEVATED SEAS LIKELY WILL POSE
CONTINUED THREATS TO SMALL CRAFT.
THE OTHER ASPECT WILL BE THE DANGEROUS SEAS WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS THE HURRICANE
MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH AND THE WIND FIELD FURTHER EXPANDS.
SEAS BUILD TO 8-13 FT TONIGHT AND THEN 13-18 FT THURSDAY. THERE
IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR 20 FT SEAS OUT 20 NM THURSDAY.
WAVES/SEAS IN THE LOWER BAY AND MOUTH OF THE BAY SHOULD PEAK AT
6-9 FT THURSDAY, WITH 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE IN THE BAY AND LOWER
JAMES. SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND
AS ERIN DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE AND TRANSITIONS INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE, BUT LONG-PERIOD SWELL AND 5-7 SEAS FT ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL WATERS ONCE THE WIND
HAZARDS END AND TROPICAL STORM HEADLINES ARE DROPPED.
RIP CURRENTS: WITH LONG-PERIOD (12-17S) SWELL BUILDING OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH FOR
THE ENTIRE WEEK. THESE RIP CURRENTS AND NEARSHORE BREAKING WAVES
OF 8+ FEET WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND
SWIMMERS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 445 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HURRICANE ERIN APPROACHES OFFSHORE. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT, LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE UPPER
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC AND RAPPAHANNOCK WITH THE HIGH
TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT. AS THE STORM MAKES IT CLOSEST APPROACH
THURSDAY, WIDESPREAD MODERATE FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT MOST
GAUGES. SOME AREAS COULD ALSO APPROACH MAJOR FLOOD, PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND IN THE LYNNHAVEN VICINITY OF VA
BEACH. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST TIDAL
ZONES BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE THURSDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
PROBLEMATIC FOR MOST LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND ATLANTIC OCEAN. BEYOND THIS, THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH TIDE
CYCLES THAT EXPERIENCE MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING, AS THE HIGH
ANOMALIES FROM ERIN'S SWELL LINGERS. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES MAY
ALSO BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED FOR THE BAY SIDE OF THE MD EASTERN
SHORE, THOUGH ANOMALIES IN THESE AREAS DON'T PEAK UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
EXTENDED DURATION OF THE LARGE, BREAKING WAVES. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NEARSHORE BREAKING WAVES OF 8-14 FT
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR MDZ025.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR MDZ025.
NC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NCZ017-102.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ098>100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ075>078-082>086-089-090-093-095>097-518-
520>525.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ630>634-638-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ635>637.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/RMM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/RMM
LONG TERM...AJZ/RMM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SW
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