911
FXUS61 KAKQ 210041
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
841 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
HURRICANE ERIN WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY, BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING FARTHER OUT TO SEA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOCAL IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE LARGE WAVES AND
COASTAL FLOODING, DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS, AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND ERIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
AS OF 840 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONABLY WARM WITH LIGHT, SPOTTY SHOWERS TODAY.
- LOWS IN THE 70S TONIGHT WITH INCREASING WINDS AT THE COAST.
EVENING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FA WITH A COLD FRONT CUTTING
THROUGH WEST VA. HURRICANE ERIN, A CAT 2 AS OF THE 8 PM
ADVISORY UPDATE, IS LOCATED APPROX. 300 MI SE OF CURRITUCK. IT
IS A RATHER LARGE STORM, THOUGH. THE FAR OUTER EDGES OF THE
CLOUD SHIELD HAVE MOVED ITS WAY INTO THE FA. ERIN WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH NORTH OVERNIGHT, ITS CENTER WELL OFF THE NC COAST BY
MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AND THE MID 70S AT THE
COAST. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT, REACHING 20-25 MPH FOR
COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY MORNING, UP TO ~30 MPH IMMEDIATELY NEAR
THE SHORE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FROM DUCK, NC TO CHINCOTEAGUE, VA AS
WELL AS THE COASTAL WATERS, THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND THE LOWER
JAMES RIVER
- HURRICANE ERIN IS LIKELY TO STAY OFFSHORE OF THE LOCAL AREA
AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, IMPACTS WILL HAPPEN WELL OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST CONE, WITH LARGE WAVES, STRONG RIP CURRENTS, COASTAL
FLOODING, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST ALL POSSIBLE.
HURRICANE ERIN CONTINUES TO TAKE THE NORTHEASTERLY TURN THURSDAY AS
IT IS INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH DIPPING INTO THE EAST COAST.
THE NHC FORECAST DOES HAVE ERIN STRENGTHENING AGAIN TO
TONIGHT/THURSDAY TO A CAT 3 AS ITS CENTER PASSES BY WELL OFFSHORE.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC
UPPER JET DEVELOPING TO THE N OF ERIN. THIS WILL CAUSE AN EXPANSION
OF THE WIND FIELD TO THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE HURRICANE.
THEREFORE, WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY AS SOME
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE FROM THE NW. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR VIRGINIA BEACH, NORTHAMPTON, AND
ACCOMACK AND CONTINUE FOR CURRITUCK. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE
FOR CAMDEN AND PASQUOTANK COUNTIES IN NC, CHESAPEAKE,
NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH, AND HAMPTON/POQUOSON IN VA, AND THE MARYLAND
BEACHES. ALL MARINE ZONES ARE IN TS WARNINGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE UPPER TIDAL RIVERS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WHERE THE RRQ COULD ENHANCE SOME RAIN BANDS, BUT
OVERALL THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/RAINFALL FLOODING THREAT IS QUITE LOW
AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL OCCUR AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN THREATS (IN ADDITION TO WIND ALONG THE COAST) CONTINUE TO
BE COASTAL FLOODING, HIGH WAVES/BEACH EROSION, AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS. THAT IS COVERED IN MORE DETAIL BELOW. FARTHER INLAND, A
NORTHERLY WIND SHOULD GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY,
AND 35-40 MPH CLOSER TO THE COAST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FROM NHC IN REGARDS TO HURRICANE ERIN.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BOTH DAYS. LOW TEMPERATURES COOL FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE LOW- MID 60S FOR
MOST THU NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE OVER THE AREA (DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S AND POSSIBLY UPPER 50S) WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE
COMFORTABLE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY, LEADING TO
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME,
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, EVENTUALLY
CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY SLIDE UP THE COAST AS WELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST (35-50% POPS). CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE IN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE NW EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 800 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
AS HURRICANE ERIN APPROACHES FROM THE SE, BKN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA. FEW TO SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE AREA AND
WILL BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT OVERNIGHT WITH ALL TERMINALS SEEING
MVFR CIGS BY 07Z/21. ECG HAS RECENTLY BECOME MVFR WITH BKN CIGS,
ALTHOUGH SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BEFORE CONSISTENTLY BECOMING MVFR
LATER TONIGHT. IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED AT RIC AND SBY BEFORE SUNRISE
WITH HIGHER WINDS AT ORF/PHF/ECG KEEPING CIGS AT MVFR. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR (LOCALLY IFR) THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW.
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, EXPECTING TO PEAK
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING AT 25-35 KT AT ORF/ECG AND 15-25 KT AT
REMAINING TERMINALS. PRECIP WILL INCREASE TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SE TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A CHC
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURNS SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MARINE
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
- TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS, CHESAPEAKE BAY, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND LOWER JAMES
RIVER. THE MOST HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
- DANGEROUS SEAS OF 10-20 FT AND SHORELINE/DUNE EROSION ARE LIKELY
ON THURSDAY.
- SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGH-END CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ERIN, WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF
95 KT/110 MPH, IS LOCATED ABOUT 335 MILES SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS NOW REPORTING A E OR ENE WINDS 5-10
KT. SEAS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE TODAY BUT HAVE STEADILY INCREASED TO
5-6 FT WITH 7-10 FT NOTED NOT FAR SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
WINDS INCREASE FROM S TO N TONIGHT, AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE
ERIN OFFSHORE.
THE BRUNT OF THE MARINE IMPACTS FROM ERIN ARE STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY AS THE STORM PASSES SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
OFFSHORE. DESPITE THE OFFSHORE TRACK, THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND FURTHER AND THE EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
BE VERY LARGE. THIS WIND FIELD IS LIKELY TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT
MARINE THREAT AND DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
AND PARTICULARLY OVER OUR OCEAN ZONES. NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KT
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 KT (HIGHEST S) TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS PEAK IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE
EARLY PORTIONS OF THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WIND DIRECTION BECOMES
N/NNE. WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF OUR COASTAL
WATERS, THE CURRITUCK SOUND, AND CHESAPEAKE BAY. TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OFFSHORE ZONES AS WELL AS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND CURRITUCK SOUND. SUB-34
KT WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER RIVERS SO SCA HEADLINES
CONTINUE FROM 05Z/1 AM TONIGHT TO 11Z/7 AM FRI. SLOWLY SUBSIDING
WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A 20-25 KT N WIND.
BY FRIDAY, WIND SPEEDS DROP OFF TO 15-20 KT, WITH 10-15 KT BY
THE AFTERNOON IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND RIVERS. MUCH CALMER
WINDS PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND, THOUGH ELEVATED SEAS LIKELY WILL
POSE CONTINUED THREATS TO SMALL CRAFT.
THE OTHER ASPECT WILL BE THE DANGEROUS SEAS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS THE HURRICANE MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH AND THE WIND FIELD EXPANDS FURTHER. SEAS BUILD TO 8-
13 FT TONIGHT AND THEN 13-18 FT THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME
POTENTIAL FOR 20 FT SEAS OUT 20 NM THURSDAY. WAVES/SEAS IN THE LOWER
BAY AND MOUTH OF THE BAY SHOULD PEAK AT 6-9 FT THURSDAY, WITH 4-6 FT
ELSEWHERE IN THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES. SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND AS ERIN DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE AND
TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE, BUT LONG-PERIOD SWELL AND
4-6 SEAS FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL WATERS ONCE THE
WIND HAZARDS END AND TROPICAL STORM HEADLINES ARE DROPPED.
RIP CURRENTS: WITH LONG-PERIOD (12-17S) SWELL BUILDING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH FOR THE ENTIRE
WEEK. THESE RIP CURRENTS AND NEARSHORE BREAKING WAVES OF 8+ FEET
WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND SWIMMERS SHOULD
REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
HURRICANE ERIN APPROACHES OFFSHORE. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, LOCALIZED
MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL
POTOMAC AND RAPPAHANNOCK WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF THE RAPPAHANNOCK AND
YORK RIVERS TONIGHT AS WELL AS BAY-SIDE PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
SHORE AND TANGIER ISLAND WHERE TIDES ARE FORECAST TO REACH MINOR
FLOOD THRESHOLDS.
AS THE STORM MAKES IT CLOSEST APPROACH THURSDAY, WIDESPREAD MODERATE
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT MOST GAUGES. SOME AREAS COULD ALSO
APPROACH MAJOR FLOOD, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND IN
THE LYNNHAVEN VICINITY OF VA BEACH. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR ATLANTIC-FACING PORTIONS OF COASTAL VA AND NE NC AS WELL
AS AREAS SURROUNDING THE JAMES RIVER WITH HEADLINES STARTING AT 7AM
THURSDAY. THIS EARLIER START TIME IS TO COVER POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ON THE EARLIER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES
THURSDAY. THE THURSDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST PROBLEMATIC FOR MOST LOCATIONS ADJACENT
TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ATLANTIC OCEAN. OPTED TO LEAVE THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE YORK RIVER
SINCE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOODING IS FOCUSED FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. BEYOND THIS, THERE COULD BE A FEW
HIGH TIDE CYCLES THAT EXPERIENCE MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING, AS
THE HIGH ANOMALIES FROM ERIN'S SWELL LINGERS. COASTAL FLOOD
WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED EVENTUALLY FOR THE BAY SIDE OF THE
MD EASTERN SHORE, THOUGH ANOMALIES IN THESE AREAS DON'T PEAK
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
EXTENDED DURATION OF THE LARGE, BREAKING WAVES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR NEARSHORE BREAKING WAVES OF 8-14 FT FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ025.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR MDZ025.
NC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NCZ017-102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ015-016.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR NCZ102.
VA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ076-083-
099-100-518-520>522.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ095-097-
525.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ075>078-083>086-518-520>522.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR VAZ082-089-090-093-095>097-523>525.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ630>634-638-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ635>637.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/RMM
NEAR TERM...AC/KMC
SHORT TERM...AJZ/AC/RMM
LONG TERM...AJZ/AC/RMM
AVIATION...AC/KMC
MARINE...RHR/SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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