298
FXUS61 KAKQ 211848
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
248 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
HURRICANE ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. LARGE WAVES, COASTAL FLOODING, AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. HOWEVER, WINDS
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM DUCK, NC TO
CHINCOTEAGUE, VA AS WELL AS THE COASTAL WATERS, THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY, AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER.
- HURRICANE ERIN STAYS WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT
IMPACTS (ESPECIALLY COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH/DUNE EROSION)
WILL CONTINUE.
HURRICANE ERIN WAS CENTERED ABOUT 285 MILES E OF CAPE HATTERAS, NC
AND MOVING NE AROUND 18 MPH AS OF THE 2 PM ADVISORY. ERIN IS A
CATEGORY 2 STORM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
AND MOVE MUCH FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. ERIN IS AN
UNUSUALLY LARGE STORM, AND THE GRADIENT BETWEEN ERIN AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NW IS RESULTING IN N WINDS OF 20-35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 35-45 MPH NEAR THE COAST. IT IS STILL BREEZY INLAND WITH GUSTS OF
20-30 MPH AS SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
ERIN. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE 70S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM DUCK, NC TO CHINCOTEAGUE, VA AND ARE BORDERED
BY A WIND ADVISORY. THE ELEVATED N WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 5-8 PM
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT. SO, WILL KEEP THE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR NOW BUT EXPECT THESE TO BE ABLE TO BE
CANCELLED/EXPIRED TONIGHT AS THE HIGH TO OUR NW BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. WEAK COOL/DRY ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING LOWS
TO DROP INTO THE 60S WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
- A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. A N WIND OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH WILL PERSIST ALONG
THE COAST FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED IN
VICINITY OF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND NUDGE OFFSHORE SATURDAY.
COMFORTABLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
FOLLOWED BY HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, LEADING TO
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW. AT THE SAME TIME, A SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG THE NC COAST FROM SUN-
SUN NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS IN FAR SE VA/NE
NC SUNDAY AFTN-LATE SUN EVENING. THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NW WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF VA BY SUN AFTN.
THESE STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE E AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER
AT BEST AS THE LOW OFFSHORE LIKELY LIMITS MOISTURE RETURN. STILL, A
FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD MAKE IT TO THE PIEDMONT BY LATE SUN AFTN/SUN
EVENING. THE I-95 CORRIDOR/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FA LIKELY STAY
DRY ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL STILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS HERE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE ON MONDAY, MAINLY NEAR THE
COAST.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING, BUT
LIKELY WON'T MOVE SOUTH OF NE NC UNTIL THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. AS
SUCH, ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS (~30%) ACROSS NE NC. MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT WX IS THEN
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM
THE NW WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FROM TUE-THU DESPITE PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
WIDESPREAD 50S FOR LOWS ARE EXPECTED BY NEXT WED (AND ESPECIALLY
THU).
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 155 PM EDT THURSDAY...
HURRICANE ERIN IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE NC COAST AS OF 17Z.
MEANWHILE, LOW OVERCAST SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF ERIN. CIGS HAVE IMPROVED
TO MVFR AT THE TERMINALS AFTER BEING IFR AT RIC/SBY/PHF THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES
FROM THE N AS HURRICANE ERIN LIFTS NE FARTHER OUT TO SEA. EXPECT
A N WIND OF 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT INLAND, AND 20-25KT
WITH GUSTS TO 30-35KT CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
A FEW GUSTS TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE AT ORF AND ECG. WINDS DIMINISH
TO 5-15KT TONIGHT.
DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AND ALONG A
COLD FRONT.
MARINE
AS OF 350 AM EDT THURSDAY...
- TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS,
CHESAPEAKE BAY, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND LOWER JAMES RIVER. THE
MOST HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
- DANGEROUS SEAS OF 10-20 FT AND SHORELINE/DUNE EROSION ARE
LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
- SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH ELEVATED SEAS AND RIP CURRENT HAZARDS
LINGER.
CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ERIN, WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90
KT/105 MPH, IS LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SE OF CAPE HATTERAS THIS
MORNING. WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING AS ERIN GETS CLOSER
AND OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY DEPICT NE WINDS 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 30 KT. WINDS ARE LOWER IN THE UPPER RIVERS BUT
SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENTLY,
BUOYS ARE REPORTING 6-9 FT SEAS, WHICH IS BELOW WHAT WAVE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEREFORE, THE NEAR-TERM SEAS FORECAST IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY. THE LARGE WIND FIELD (AND DANGEROUS SEAS) WILL
POSE A SIGNIFICANT MARINE THREAT AND DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE WATERS AND PARTICULARLY OVER OUR OCEAN ZONES.
NNE-NE WINDS INCREASE FURTHER THIS MORNING AND PEAK AT 25-35 KT
LATER TODAY. WIND GUSTS TO 40-45 KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL
WATERS, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER BAY AND LOWER JAMES
RIVER. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OFFSHORE
ZONES AS WELL AS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND
CURRITUCK SOUND. SUB-34 KT WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
RIVERS SO SCA HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH 11Z/7 AM FRI.
SLOWLY SUBSIDING WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT WITH A 20-25 KT
N WIND. BY FRIDAY, WIND SPEEDS DROP OFF TO 15-20 KT, WITH 10-15
KT BY THE AFTERNOON IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND RIVERS. MUCH
CALMER WINDS PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND, THOUGH ELEVATED SEAS
LIKELY WILL POSE CONTINUED THREATS TO SMALL CRAFT.
THE OTHER ASPECT WILL BE THE DANGEROUS SEAS WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD TODAY, PEAKING AT 13-18 FT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR 20 FT SEAS OUT 20 NM. WAVES/SEAS IN THE
LOWER BAY AND MOUTH OF THE BAY SHOULD PEAK AT 6-8 FT THURSDAY,
WITH 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE IN THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES (2-3 FT
CURRITUCK SOUND). SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
THE WEEKEND AS ERIN DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE AND TRANSITIONS INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE, BUT LONG-PERIOD SWELL AND 4-6 FT SEAS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL WATERS ONCE THE WIND
HAZARDS END AND TROPICAL STORM HEADLINES ARE DROPPED.
RIP CURRENTS: WITH LONG-PERIOD (12-17S) SWELL AND NEARSHORE
BREAKING WAVES OF 8+ FEET, DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AND
LIKELY THE WEEKEND. SWIMMERS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 350 AM EDT THURSDAY...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE BUILDING THIS MORNING AS NE WINDS INCREASE
FROM ERIN. WIDESPREAD MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED WITH THE UPCOMING MORNING HIGH TIDE, WITH THE HIGHEST
LEVELS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND IN THE LOWER BAY. COASTAL
FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. NOTE THAT MOST
AREAS IN THE WARNING WILL NOT HIT MODERATE FLOOD WITH THIS LOWER
MORNING HIGH TIDE, BUT INSTEAD WITH THE CYCLE LATER TODAY (SEE
BELOW).
FOR ALL AREAS MINUS THE UPPER BAY, THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THE UPCOMING EVENING/OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WIDESPREAD MODERATE FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT MOST
GAUGES, WITH MAJOR FLOODING FORECAST FOR SOME GAUGES ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST/MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND IN THE LYNNHAVEN
VICINITY OF VA BEACH. UPGRADED TO COASTAL FLOOD WATCH NORTH OF
THE YORK RIVER TO A WARNING (EXCEPT ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND
FOR LEWISETTA WHERE MODERATE FLOODING ISN'T EXPECTED UNTIL
FRIDAY AFTERNOON). BEYOND THIS, THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH TIDE
CYCLES THAT EXPERIENCE MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING, AS THE HIGH
ANOMALIES FROM ERIN'S SWELL LINGERS. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES
CONTINUE FOR THE BAY SIDE OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE UPPER BAY COULD
SEE ADDITIONAL FLOODING LASTING INTO SUNDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
EXTENDED DURATION OF THE LARGE, BREAKING WAVES. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NEARSHORE BREAKING WAVES OF 8-14 FT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
FRIDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ025.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ025.
NC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NCZ017-102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ015-016.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ095-097-525.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ075-077.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR VAZ075-077.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ076-
078-083>086-518-520>522.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR VAZ076-078-083>086-518-520>522.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ082-089-090-
093-095>097-523>525.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ630>634-638-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/AC
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ERI
LONG TERM...AJZ/ERI
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...RHR/SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page