892
FXUS61 KAKQ 211948
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
348 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
HURRICANE ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. LARGE WAVES, COASTAL FLOODING, AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. HOWEVER, WINDS
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM DUCK, NC TO
CHINCOTEAGUE, VA AS WELL AS THE COASTAL WATERS, THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY, AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER.
- HURRICANE ERIN STAYS WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT
IMPACTS (ESPECIALLY COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH/DUNE EROSION)
WILL CONTINUE.
HURRICANE ERIN WAS CENTERED ABOUT 285 MILES E OF CAPE HATTERAS, NC
AND MOVING NE AROUND 18 MPH AS OF THE 2 PM ADVISORY. ERIN IS A
CATEGORY 2 STORM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
AND MOVE MUCH FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. ERIN IS AN
UNUSUALLY LARGE STORM, AND THE GRADIENT BETWEEN ERIN AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NW IS RESULTING IN N WINDS OF 20-35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 35-45 MPH NEAR THE COAST. IT IS STILL BREEZY INLAND WITH GUSTS OF
20-30 MPH AS SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
ERIN. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE 70S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM DUCK, NC TO CHINCOTEAGUE, VA AND ARE BORDERED
BY A WIND ADVISORY. THE ELEVATED N WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 5-8 PM
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT. SO, WILL KEEP THE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR NOW BUT EXPECT THESE TO BE ABLE TO BE
CANCELLED/EXPIRED TONIGHT AS THE HIGH TO OUR NW BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. WEAK COOL/DRY ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING LOWS
TO DROP INTO THE 60S WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
- A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. A N WIND OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH WILL PERSIST ALONG
THE COAST FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED IN
VICINITY OF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND NUDGE OFFSHORE SATURDAY.
COMFORTABLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
FOLLOWED BY HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, LEADING TO
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW. AT THE SAME TIME, A SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG THE NC COAST FROM SUN-
SUN NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS IN FAR SE VA/NE
NC SUNDAY AFTN-LATE SUN EVENING. THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NW WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF VA BY SUN AFTN.
THESE STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE E AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER
AT BEST AS THE LOW OFFSHORE LIKELY LIMITS MOISTURE RETURN. STILL, A
FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD MAKE IT TO THE PIEDMONT BY LATE SUN AFTN/SUN
EVENING. THE I-95 CORRIDOR/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FA LIKELY STAY
DRY ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL STILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS HERE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE ON MONDAY, MAINLY NEAR THE
COAST.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING, BUT
LIKELY WON'T MOVE SOUTH OF NE NC UNTIL THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. AS
SUCH, ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS (~30%) ACROSS NE NC. MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT WX IS THEN
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM
THE NW WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FROM TUE-THU DESPITE PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
WIDESPREAD 50S FOR LOWS ARE EXPECTED BY NEXT WED (AND ESPECIALLY
THU).
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 155 PM EDT THURSDAY...
HURRICANE ERIN IS TRACKING NNE OFF THE NC COAST AS OF 17Z.
MEANWHILE, LOW OVERCAST SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AS
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF ERIN. CIGS HAVE IMPROVED
TO MVFR AT THE TERMINALS AFTER BEING IFR AT RIC/SBY/PHF THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES
FROM THE N AS HURRICANE ERIN LIFTS NE FARTHER OUT TO SEA. EXPECT
A N WIND OF 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT INLAND, AND 20-25KT
WITH GUSTS TO 30-35KT CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
A FEW GUSTS TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE AT ORF AND ECG. WINDS DIMINISH
TO 5-15KT TONIGHT.
DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AND ALONG A
COLD FRONT.
MARINE
AS OF 340 PM EDT THURSDAY...
- TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS,
CHESAPEAKE BAY, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND LOWER JAMES RIVER. THE
MOST HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
- DANGEROUS SEAS OF 10-20 FT AND SHORELINE/DUNE EROSION ARE
LIKELY TODAY.
- SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH ELEVATED SEAS AND RIP CURRENT
HAZARDS LINGER.
HURRICANE ERIN, A RATHER LARGE CATEGORY TWO STORM, IS WELL OFF THE
COAST OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. MID-AFTERNOON SATELLITE REFLECTS ITS
CENTER ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE VA/NC BORDER. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DRY AIR BEING PULLED IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
STORM HAS LED TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER LOCAL WATERS. ELEVATED
N/NE WINDS HAVE BEEN ONGOING SINCE THIS MORNING WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35KT WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 40KT.
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE BETWEEN 20 AND 30KT. THE RIVERS ARE OF
COURSE A BIT LOWER WITH GUSTS TO ~25-30KT. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER RIVERS, WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT. LATEST BUOY OBS SHOW SEAS UP TO ~15FT OFF THE NC
COAST AND SEAS ~12FT OFF THE VA/MD COAST. FURTHER OFFSHORE
(AROUND 20NM) SEAS ARE 18-20FT.
ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST TONIGHT AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN UP, THE WINDS TURNING SLIGHTLY TO THE
NW. WINDS LOOKS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY AFTER 8PM TONIGHT BASED ON
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL WIND PROBS. BY LATE TONIGHT, NNW WINDS SHOULD BE
DOWN TO 15-20KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY TURN BACK TOWARD THE E AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE FROM NW. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DOWN TO
10-15KT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS MAY BE A BIT SLOW TO COME
DOWN GIVEN LONG PERIOD SWELL STILL COMING IN FROM THE STORM
OFFSHORE. EXPECTING SEAS OF 8-10FT FRIDAY MORNING, DIMINISHING
TO 6-7FT BY THE LATE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. MUCH LIGHTER
ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY (5-10KT). SEAS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE 5FT+, THOUGH. SEAS LOOK TO FINALLY DROP BELOW 5FT ON
SUNDAY. WINDS TURN TO THE SE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 10-15KT.
RIP CURRENTS: WITH LONG-PERIOD (12-17S) SWELL AND NEARSHORE
BREAKING WAVES OF 8+ FEET, DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AND
LIKELY THE WEEKEND. SWIMMERS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 340 PM EDT THURSDAY...
TIDAL ANOMALIES IN THE LOWER BAY ARE STILL INCREASING, THOUGH
THE RATE OF OF RISE HAS SLOWED COMPARED TO EARLIER. FOR ALL
AREAS MINUS THE UPPER BAY, THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR WITH THE UPCOMING EVENING/OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT MOST GAUGES,
WITH MAJOR FLOODING FORECAST FOR SOME GAUGES ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST/MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND IN THE LYNNHAVEN VICINITY
OF VA BEACH. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY, AREAS ADJACENT TO THE TIDAL
JAMES, YORK, AND RAPPAHANNOCK RIVERS, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST.
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC.
BEYOND THIS, THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH TIDE
CYCLES THAT EXPERIENCE MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING, AS THE HIGH
ANOMALIES FROM ERIN'S SWELL LINGERS. DID UPGRADE THE COASTAL
FLOOD WATCHES TO WARNINGS FOR WESTMORELAND AND NORTHUMBERLAND AS
WELL AS THE BAY SIDE OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE UPPER BAY
COULD SEE ADDITIONAL FLOODING LASTING INTO SUNDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
EXTENDED DURATION OF THE LARGE, BREAKING WAVES. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NEARSHORE BREAKING WAVES OF 8-14 FT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
FRIDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NCZ017-102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ015-016.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ095-097-525.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ075-077.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR VAZ075-077.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ076-
078-083>086-518-520>522.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR VAZ076-078-083>086-518-520>522.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ082-089-090-
093-095>097-523>525.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ630>634-638-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/AC
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ERI
LONG TERM...AJZ/ERI
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...AC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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