464
FXUS61 KAKQ 220007
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
807 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
HURRICANE ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. LARGE WAVES, COASTAL FLOODING, AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. HOWEVER, WINDS DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
AS OF 805 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS BUT HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL LAND AREAS AS WELL AS
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND THE CURRITUCK
SOUND.
- HURRICANE ERIN CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT,
BUT COASTAL IMPACTS (ESPECIALLY COASTAL FLOODING AND
BEACH/DUNE EROSION) TO WILL CONTINUE.
HURRICANE ERIN WAS CENTERED ABOUT 420 MILES NE OF CAPE HATTERAS, NC
AND IS MOVING NE AROUND 20 MPH AS OF THE 8 PM ADVISORY. ERIN
REMAINS A CATEGORY 2 STORM AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AND MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY. ERIN IS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE STORM, AND THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN ERIN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NW WILL ALLOW BREEZY NE
WINDS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. ALL
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR LAND AREAS HAVE EXPIRED AS WELL AS
THE BORDERING INLAND WIND ADVISORIES. WILL REEVALUATE THE
OFFSHORE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE 11 PM ADVISORY.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NW BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION
TONIGHT. WEAK COOL/DRY ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 60S WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
- A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. A N WIND OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH WILL PERSIST ALONG
THE COAST FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED IN
VICINITY OF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND NUDGE OFFSHORE SATURDAY.
COMFORTABLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
FOLLOWED BY HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, LEADING TO
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW. AT THE SAME TIME, A SOUTHERN STREAM
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG THE NC COAST FROM SUN-
SUN NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS IN FAR SE VA/NE
NC SUNDAY AFTN-LATE SUN EVENING. THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NW WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF VA BY SUN AFTN.
THESE STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE E AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER
AT BEST AS THE LOW OFFSHORE LIKELY LIMITS MOISTURE RETURN. STILL, A
FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD MAKE IT TO THE PIEDMONT BY LATE SUN AFTN/SUN
EVENING. THE I-95 CORRIDOR/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FA LIKELY STAY
DRY ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL STILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS HERE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE ON MONDAY, MAINLY NEAR THE
COAST.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING, BUT
LIKELY WON'T MOVE SOUTH OF NE NC UNTIL THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. AS
SUCH, ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS (~30%) ACROSS NE NC. MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT WX IS THEN
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM
THE NW WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 70S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FROM TUE-THU DESPITE PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
WIDESPREAD 50S FOR LOWS ARE EXPECTED BY NEXT WED (AND ESPECIALLY
THU).
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 805 PM EDT THURSDAY...
HURRICANE ERIN IS TRACKING NE AWAY FROM THE COAST AS OF 00Z.
MEANWHILE, MVFR CIGS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOME CIGS
IMPROVING TO VFR OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO IN THE PIEDMONT. EXPECT
THE MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVING
TO VFR TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE N AS HURRICANE ERIN
LIFTS NE FARTHER OUT TO SEA. EXPECT N WINDS 5-10 KT AT
RIC/PHF/SBY WITH 15-20 KT AND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT AT ORF AND ECG
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD
FRONT.
MARINE
AS OF 805 PM EDT THURSDAY...
- TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN THE RIVERS, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND
CHES. BAY HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
- TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
THESE WARNINGS WILL MOST LIKELY BE REPLACED BY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WITH THE NEXT 11 PM ADVISORY CYCLE.
- SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH ELEVATED SEAS AND RIP CURRENT
HAZARDS LINGER.
HURRICANE ERIN, A RATHER LARGE CATEGORY TWO STORM, IS WELL OFF THE
COAST OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. ELEVATED N/NE WINDS HAVE BEEN
ONGOING SINCE THIS MORNING WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30KT
WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 35KT. THE WINDS HAVE PEAKED AND WILL
SLOWLY DECLINE OVERNIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE CHES. BAY HAVE
DECLINED TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THE RIVERS ARE OF
COURSE A BIT LOWER WITH GUSTS TO ~20KT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REPLACING IN THE CHES. BAY, ALL RIVERS, AND CURRITUCK
SOUND. LATEST BUOY OBS SHOW SEAS UP TO ~15FT OFF THE NC COAST AND
SEAS ~12FT OFF THE VA/MD COAST. FURTHER OFFSHORE (AROUND 20NM) SEAS
ARE 18-20FT.
ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST TONIGHT AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN UP, THE WINDS TURNING SLIGHTLY TO THE
NW. BY LATE TONIGHT, NNW WINDS SHOULD BE DOWN TO 15-20KT WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25KT. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED OFF WITH
THE 11 PM ADVISORY CYCLE PER LOCAL OBS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY TURN BACK TOWARD THE E AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE FROM NW. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DOWN TO 10-15KT
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS MAY BE A BIT SLOW TO COME DOWN GIVEN LONG
PERIOD SWELL STILL COMING IN FROM THE STORM OFFSHORE. EXPECTING SEAS
OF 8-10FT FRIDAY MORNING, DIMINISHING TO 6-7FT BY THE LATE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT. MUCH LIGHTER ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY (5-
10KT). SEAS WILL LIKELY STILL BE 5FT+, THOUGH. SEAS LOOK TO FINALLY
DROP BELOW 5FT ON SUNDAY. WINDS TURN TO THE SE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TO 10-15KT.
RIP CURRENTS: WITH LONG-PERIOD (12-17S) SWELL AND NEARSHORE
BREAKING WAVES OF 8+ FEET, DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK AND
LIKELY THE WEEKEND. SWIMMERS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 340 PM EDT THURSDAY...
TIDAL ANOMALIES IN THE LOWER BAY ARE STILL INCREASING, THOUGH
THE RATE OF OF RISE HAS SLOWED COMPARED TO EARLIER. FOR ALL
AREAS MINUS THE UPPER BAY, THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR WITH THE UPCOMING EVENING/OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT MOST GAUGES,
WITH MAJOR FLOODING FORECAST FOR SOME GAUGES ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST/MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND IN THE LYNNHAVEN VICINITY
OF VA BEACH. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY, AREAS ADJACENT TO THE TIDAL
JAMES, YORK, AND RAPPAHANNOCK RIVERS, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST.
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC.
BEYOND THIS, THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH TIDE
CYCLES THAT EXPERIENCE MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING, AS THE HIGH
ANOMALIES FROM ERIN'S SWELL LINGERS. DID UPGRADE THE COASTAL
FLOOD WATCHES TO WARNINGS FOR WESTMORELAND AND NORTHUMBERLAND AS
WELL AS THE BAY SIDE OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE UPPER BAY
COULD SEE ADDITIONAL FLOODING LASTING INTO SUNDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
EXTENDED DURATION OF THE LARGE, BREAKING WAVES. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NEARSHORE BREAKING WAVES OF 8-14 FT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
FRIDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ075-077.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR VAZ075-077.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ076-
078-083>086-518-520>522.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ076-078-
083>086-518-520>522.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ082-089-090-
093-095>097-523>525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-631-633-
635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/AC
NEAR TERM...ERI/RHR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ERI
LONG TERM...AJZ/ERI
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AC/KMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
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