484
FXUS61 KAKQ 221044
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
644 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HURRICANE ERIN WILL DEPART FURTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. LARGE WAVES,
COASTAL FLOODING, AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. DRY WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 645 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRYING OUT TODAY AS HURRICANE ERIN MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE AREA.
CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ERIN IS QUICKLY ACCELERATING INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT, BUT CONTINUED COASTAL HAZARDS (IN THE FORM OF TIDAL
FLOODING AND RIP CURRENTS) ARE STILL EXPECTED GIVEN STRONG SHORE-
NORMAL SWELL. SEE THE MARINE/COASTAL FLOOD SECTION FOR MORE INFO.
NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENT DECK OF STRATUS
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND OVER SE VA. DRIER AIR HAS LED TO CLEARING
ACROSS INTERIOR SE VA, THE PENINSULAS, AND THE EASTERN SHORE.
EXPECT THE CLOUD DECK TO ERODE FROM N TO S OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AS ERIN MOVES FURTHER AWAY THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS FEATURE
SHOULD PROMOTE SUNNY SKIES, ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 80S AND MID 50S-LOW 60S, RESPECTIVELY. LESS
BREEZY AS WELL TODAY WITH A NE WIND SHIFTING TO THE E AT AROUND
10 MPH (HIGHER AT THE COAST). MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH COOLER
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SOME INLAND LOCATIONS DROP INTO THE MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND WARM SATURDAY.
- A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY.
ON SATURDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TO OUR NE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP.
A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE SITUATED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES VICINITY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED,
HOWEVER, WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER-MID 80S BY THE AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED, BUT A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG THE GA/SC COAST COULD LEAD TO SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER OVER SE
VA AND NE NC. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY FROM THE NW,
BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR W FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE, A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. THEREFORE, THE HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY ARE WELL W OF
I-95 AND IN SE VA AND NE NC, WITH A RELATIVE MINIMA IN THE I-95
CORRIDOR INTO THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE. INSTABILITY WILL
BE QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE AREA (MUCAPE <500 J/KG), BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. REGARDLESS,
PRECIP ACTIVITY LOOKS RATHER SCATTERED AT BEST AND DEFINITELY NOT A
DEAL BREAKER FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER-MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 F
AT THE COAST.
IF GOING TO THE BEACH THIS WEEKEND, NOTE THAT CONTINUED LONG-PERIOD
SWELL FROM ERIN WILL LEAD TO LARGE SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE ON MONDAY, MAINLY NEAR
THE COAST.
- VERY NICE NEXT WEEK WITH SUNNY SKIES AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. WHILE LOW-END
POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
A FEW SHOWERS, DRIER AIR QUICKLY FILTERING IN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION. MONDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S.
OTHERWISE, A FABULOUS WEEK OF WEATHER LOOKS TO BE ON TAP AS A DEEP
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST TUESDAY WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AND THEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TUESDAY-
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 F WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND AND 60S NEAR THE WATER. IT WILL ALSO FEEL
VERY COMFORTABLE FOR AUGUST AS DEW POINTS HOVER IN THE 50S AREAWIDE
FOR THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 645 AM EDT FRIDAY...
HURRICANE ERIN IS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE AREA AS OF 12Z. BKN- OVC
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE SE VA AND NE NC AND VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. THOSE MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER ACROSS NE NC FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EVENTUALLY,
DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE N AS HURRICANE ERIN LIFTS NE FARTHER
OUT TO SEA WITH VFR AND CLEARING SKIES. SOME AFTERNOON CU
REDEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR RIC. EXPECT N
WINDS 5-10 KT AT RIC/PHF/SBY WITH ~10 KT AT ORF AND ECG THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND TODAY. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE E
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. A CHC
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AND ALONG A
COLD FRONT.
MARINE
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SLOWLY COME DOWN THIS MORNING OVER THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, BUT REMAIN IN EFFECT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO HAZARDOUS SEAS.
- SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND, THOUGH ELEVATED SEAS AND RIP CURRENT
HAZARDS LINGER.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS HURRICANE ERIN, NOW 500 NM OFF CAPE HENRY AS
OF THIS WRITING. ELEVATED N/NE WINDS REMAIN GUSTY BUT ARE
DIMINISHING AS ERIN PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENS FURTHER. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE CHES. BAY HAVE DECLINED TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THE RIVERS AND SOUND ARE OF
COURSE A BIT LOWER WITH GUSTS TO ~20KT, AND SCA WERE ABLE TO BE
DROPPED A BIT EARLY.
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, GRADUALLY VEERING
AROUND TO THE E AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE FROM NW. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE DOWN TO 10-15KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT
SLOW TO COME DOWN, GIVEN LONG PERIOD SWELL STILL COMING IN FROM THE
STORM OFFSHORE. SEAS REMAIN IN THE 8-10FT RANGE NEARSHORE, 10-14 FT
OUT TOWARD THE OUTER WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT SEAS TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 6-8FT BY THIS EVENING, ALLOWING SURF
ADVISORIES TO COME DOWN LATER TODAY, BUT SCA OVER THE COASTAL ZONES
LIKELY LINGERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINLY FOR WEAKENING THOUGH
PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD NE SWELL (12-14 SECONDS)
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT. MUCH LIGHTER ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY (5-
10KT). SEAS LOOK TO FINALLY DROP BELOW 5FT ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING SCA
TO FINALLY BE LOWERED AND MORE BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY MORNING. A DEEPENING SFC LOW ALONG THAT FRONT SCOOTS BY
TO OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE, WHICH TURNS WINDS AROUND TO THE SSW
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, TURNING NW AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 10-
15KT LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A SECOND, STRONGER FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH NEAR-SCA LEVEL
WINDS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
RIP CURRENTS: WITH LINGERING LONG-PERIOD (12-17S) SWELLS AND
NEARSHORE BREAKING WAVES OF 8+ FEET, DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS
AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY AND LIKELY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 340 AM EDT FRIDAY...
TIDAL ANOMALIES IN THE LOWER BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
ARE SLOWLY LOWERING. FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER BAY, TIDAL
ANOMALIES ARE SLOWLY RISING. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
MODERATE FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT MOST GAUGES IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER BAY, WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR FLOODING FORECAST
FOR SOME GAUGES FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES ALONG THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY (MIDDLE PENINSULA AND NORTHERN NECK, BAY
SIDE OF THE EASTERN SHORE) AND IN THE LYNNHAVEN VICINITY OF VA
BEACH. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY, INCLUDING AREAS ADJACENT TO
THE TIDAL RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST.
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER BAY, AND THE TIDAL YORK
AND JAMES RIVERS.
BEYOND THIS UPCOMING TIDE CYCLE, THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH TIDE
CYCLES THAT EXPERIENCE MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING, AS THE HIGH
ANOMALIES FROM ERIN'S SWELL LINGERS, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
THAT THE UPPER BAY COULD SEE ADDITIONAL FLOODING DURING HIGH
TIDE CYCLES LINGERING INTO SUNDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, ADDITIONAL INSTANCES OF MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE
BEACH EROSION ARE LIKELY TODAY DUE TO THE EXTENDED DURATION OF
THE LARGE, BREAKING WAVES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
NEARSHORE BREAKING WAVES OF 8-14 FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ075-077.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ076-078-
083>086-518-520>522.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ082-089-
090-093-095>097-523>525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630-
631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AC/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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