592
FXUS61 KAKQ 221733
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
133 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HURRICANE ERIN WILL DEPART FURTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. LARGE WAVES,
COASTAL FLOODING, AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. DRY WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1020 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRYING OUT TODAY AS HURRICANE ERIN MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE AREA.
CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ERIN IS QUICKLY ACCELERATING INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT, BUT CONTINUED COASTAL HAZARDS (IN THE FORM OF TIDAL
FLOODING AND RIP CURRENTS) ARE STILL EXPECTED GIVEN STRONG SHORE-
NORMAL SWELL. SEE THE MARINE/COASTAL FLOOD SECTION FOR MORE INFO.
MUCH OF THE CLOUD DECK THAT WAS OVER THE AREA HAS ERODED PER
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY, LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. LATEST OBS REFLECT TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S AND DEW POINTS ALREADY DROPPING INTO THE 50S E O I-95. AS
ERIN MOVES FURTHER AWAY THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN INTO THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS FEATURE SHOULD
PROMOTE SUNNY SKIES, ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER 80S AND MID 50S-LOW 60S, RESPECTIVELY. LESS BREEZY
AS WELL TODAY WITH A NE WIND SHIFTING TO THE E AT AROUND 10 MPH
(HIGHER AT THE COAST). MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
INLAND LOCATIONS DROP INTO THE MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND WARM SATURDAY.
- A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY.
ON SATURDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TO OUR NE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP.
A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE SITUATED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES VICINITY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED,
HOWEVER, WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER-MID 80S BY THE AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED, BUT A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG THE GA/SC COAST COULD LEAD TO SOME THICKER CLOUD COVER OVER SE
VA AND NE NC. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY FROM THE NW,
BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR W FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE, A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. THEREFORE, THE HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY ARE WELL W OF
I-95 AND IN SE VA AND NE NC, WITH A RELATIVE MINIMA IN THE I-95
CORRIDOR INTO THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE. INSTABILITY WILL
BE QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE AREA (MUCAPE <500 J/KG), BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. REGARDLESS,
PRECIP ACTIVITY LOOKS RATHER SCATTERED AT BEST AND DEFINITELY NOT A
DEAL BREAKER FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER-MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 F
AT THE COAST.
IF GOING TO THE BEACH THIS WEEKEND, NOTE THAT CONTINUED LONG-PERIOD
SWELL FROM ERIN WILL LEAD TO LARGE SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE ON MONDAY, MAINLY NEAR
THE COAST.
- VERY NICE NEXT WEEK WITH SUNNY SKIES AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. WHILE LOW-END
POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
A FEW SHOWERS, DRIER AIR QUICKLY FILTERING IN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION. MONDAY SHOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
80S.
OTHERWISE, A FABULOUS WEEK OF WEATHER LOOKS TO BE ON TAP AS A DEEP
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST TUESDAY WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AND THEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TUESDAY-
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 F WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND AND 60S NEAR THE WATER. IT WILL ALSO FEEL
VERY COMFORTABLE FOR AUGUST AS DEW POINTS HOVER IN THE 50S AREAWIDE
FOR THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. HURRICANE ERIN IS
WELL TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND IT. MOST OF THE TERMINALS ARE UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RIC WHICH HAS SCATTERED MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH TOMORROW. NE WINDS ARE STILL A BIT GUSTY AT ORF AND PHF
AS OF LATEST OBS, BUT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND EASTERLY OVERNIGHT, CONTINUING
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. A CHC
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AND ALONG A
COLD FRONT.
MARINE
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SLOWLY COME DOWN THIS MORNING OVER THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, BUT REMAIN IN EFFECT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO HAZARDOUS SEAS.
- SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND, THOUGH ELEVATED SEAS AND RIP CURRENT
HAZARDS LINGER.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS HURRICANE ERIN, NOW 500 NM OFF CAPE HENRY AS
OF THIS WRITING. ELEVATED N/NE WINDS REMAIN GUSTY BUT ARE
DIMINISHING AS ERIN PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENS FURTHER. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE CHES. BAY HAVE DECLINED TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THE RIVERS AND SOUND ARE OF
COURSE A BIT LOWER WITH GUSTS TO ~20KT, AND SCA WERE ABLE TO BE
DROPPED A BIT EARLY.
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, GRADUALLY VEERING
AROUND TO THE E AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE FROM NW. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE DOWN TO 10-15KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT
SLOW TO COME DOWN, GIVEN LONG PERIOD SWELL STILL COMING IN FROM THE
STORM OFFSHORE. SEAS REMAIN IN THE 8-10FT RANGE NEARSHORE, 10-14 FT
OUT TOWARD THE OUTER WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT SEAS TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 6-8FT BY THIS EVENING, ALLOWING SURF
ADVISORIES TO COME DOWN LATER TODAY, BUT SCA OVER THE COASTAL ZONES
LIKELY LINGERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINLY FOR WEAKENING THOUGH
PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD NE SWELL (12-14 SECONDS)
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT. MUCH LIGHTER ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY (5-
10KT). SEAS LOOK TO FINALLY DROP BELOW 5FT ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING SCA
TO FINALLY BE LOWERED AND MORE BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY MORNING. A DEEPENING SFC LOW ALONG THAT FRONT SCOOTS BY
TO OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE, WHICH TURNS WINDS AROUND TO THE SSW
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, TURNING NW AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 10-
15KT LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A SECOND, STRONGER FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH NEAR-SCA LEVEL
WINDS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
RIP CURRENTS: WITH LINGERING LONG-PERIOD (12-17S) SWELLS AND
NEARSHORE BREAKING WAVES OF 8+ FEET, DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS
AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY AND LIKELY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 915 AM EDT FRIDAY...
TIDAL ANOMALIES IN THE LOWER BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY
LOWERING. FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER BAY, TIDAL ANOMALIES CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY RISE. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED AT MOST GAUGES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER BAY, WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR FLOODING FORECAST FOR SOME GAUGES FOR
COASTAL COMMUNITIES ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY
(MIDDLE PENINSULA AND NORTHERN NECK, BAY SIDE OF THE EASTERN
SHORE) AND IN THE LYNNHAVEN VICINITY OF VA BEACH. COASTAL FLOOD
WARNINGS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
CHESAPEAKE BAY, INCLUDING AREAS ADJACENT TO THE TIDAL
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN
THAT SMITHFIELD IS EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE FOR
THE NEXT TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES AND JAMESTOWN IS EXPECTED TO REACH
NEAR MODERATE FLOOD STATE (WITHIN 0.05-0.1 FEET), HAVE OPTED TO
UPGRADE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES TO COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS
FOR THE LOWER BAY. HOWEVER, WILL NOTE THAT THE TIDAL YORK WILL
LIKELY PEAK AT MINOR FLOOD STAGE. TIDAL ANOMALIES FALL BY THIS
EVENING WITH NUISANCE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE LOWER BAY BEYOND THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE.
BEYOND THIS UPCOMING TIDE CYCLE, THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH TIDE
CYCLES THAT EXPERIENCE MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING (MAINLY
ACROSS THE UPPER BAY) AS THE HIGH ANOMALIES FROM ERIN'S SWELL
LINGERS, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE UPPER BAY COULD SEE
ADDITIONAL FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES LINGERING INTO
SUNDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, ADDITIONAL INSTANCES OF MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE
BEACH EROSION ARE LIKELY TODAY DUE TO THE EXTENDED DURATION OF
THE LARGE, BREAKING WAVES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
NEARSHORE BREAKING WAVES OF 4-8 FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ075-077.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ076-078-
083>086-518-520>522.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ082-089-
090-093-095>097-523>525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...AC/SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AC/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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