908
FXUS61 KAKQ 221802
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
202 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HURRICANE ERIN WILL DEPART FURTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. LARGE WAVES,
COASTAL FLOODING, AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. DRY WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRYING OUT TODAY AS HURRICANE ERIN MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE AREA.
A WEAKENING HURRICANE ERIN IS WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE HAS FILLED IN LOCALLY. CONDITIONS ARE
RATHER PLEASANT ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE BASICALLY
CLEAR OVER E OF I-95 AND SCATTERED CU ARE OVER THE WEST. LATEST OBS
SHOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 WITH DEWPOINTS THAT HAVE
DROPPED IN TO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL SEEING SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT THE COAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20MPH. WINDS SHOULD FURTHER
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ROUGH SURF AND COASTAL FLOODING CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW. SEE MARINE AND COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS BELOW FOR
DETAILS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 60S TONIGHT, BUT COULD SEE SOME SPOTS DROP INTO THE 50S-
ESPECIALLY IN INLAND LOCATIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH LITTLE TO NO
WIND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS A TAD WARMER NEAR THE COAST: IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND WARM SATURDAY.
- A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY.
THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OFFSHORE TO THE NE BY
SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE AWAY THROUGH THE DAY. AS
THIS OCCURS, SFC FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MOISTURE RETURN WITH DEW POINTS RISING BACK INTO THE MID 60S BY
SATURDAY EVENING. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS SOME
THICKER CLOUD COVER OVER NE NC. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS BECOME A BIT BREEZY NEAR THE WATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S AT THE COAST.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY, AN UL TROUGH DIPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL AID IN PUSHING A SFC COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.
MEANWHILE AT THE COAST, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM TO THE SE THEN
SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD. DESPITE BOTH OF THESE FEATURES, GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER. NOW ONLY ANTICIPATING A 15-30% CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALONG AND W OF I-95 AND 20-40% IN HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC.
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP. HOWEVER, IT
WILL STILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
HIGHS ON SUN ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOW-MID 80S. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
CROSS THE FA SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. LOWS SUN NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE ON MONDAY, MAINLY NEAR
THE COAST.
- VERY NICE NEXT WEEK WITH SUNNY SKIES AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.
ALL SIGNS POINT TO ENDING AUGUST ON AN AUTUMNAL, PUMPKIN SPICE
FLAVORED, NOTE. STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA BUILDS
TOWARD THE EASTERN CONUS. THERE IS ALSO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS THAT A DEEP TROUGH DIPS IN OVERHEAD AND
REMAINS MORE OR LESS IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE SFC
HIGH WILL BRING IN DRY AIR AND RESULT DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER
40S BY MID-WEEK. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP, EITHER,
EXCEPT A STRAY SHOWER MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THAT FRONT IS KICKED
OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S, FOLLOWED BY UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S THE REST OF THE WEEK.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S INLAND AND LOW 60S IN THE
EAST.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. HURRICANE ERIN IS
WELL TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND IT. MOST OF THE TERMINALS ARE UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RIC WHICH HAS SCATTERED MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH TOMORROW. NE WINDS ARE STILL A BIT GUSTY AT ORF AND PHF
AS OF LATEST OBS, BUT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND EASTERLY OVERNIGHT, CONTINUING
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. A CHC
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AND ALONG A
COLD FRONT.
MARINE
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED SEAS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY UNTIL 4 PM AND
FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY UNTIL 1 AM TONIGHT.
- A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF LINGERING LARGE SEAS AND HIGH PERIOD SWELL FROM
HURRICANE ERIN.
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HURRICANE ERIN CONTINUING TO
MOVE NE WELL OFFSHORE. N WINDS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED LONGER THAN
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED WITH WINDS 10-18 KT GUSTING TO 20 KT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS WINDS DIMINISHING
AND BECOMING NE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT BEING SAID, WAVES WERE 3-4 FT
ACROSS THE LOWER BAY. AS SUCH, HAVE EXTENDED SCAS FOR THE LOWER BAY
UNTIL 4 PM AND FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY UNTIL 1 AM TONIGHT. WINDS
BECOME E THIS EVENING AROUND 10-12 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT.
WILL NOTE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SURGE THIS EVENING
WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A SCA.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS ON SAT BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO REMAIN E 5-10 KT SAT MORNING,
BECOMING SE 10-15 KT BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. WILL NOTE THAT A WEAK
SURFACE LOW MAY FORM ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS ON SUN, POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS
TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ACROSS THE S COASTAL WATERS AND
POTENTIALLY THE LOWER BAY ON SUN. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON, ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NW/N. HOWEVER, WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AT 5-15 KT. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF NEAR SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT ACROSS THE
LOWER CHES BAY, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO SUBSIDE GIVEN LONG PERIOD SWELL STILL COMING
IN FROM THE STORM OFFSHORE. SEAS THIS AFTERNOON WERE 6-10 FT ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT NEARSHORE WAVES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
6-7 FT BY THIS EVENING, ALLOWING HIGH SURF ADVISORIES TO COME DOWN
AT 6 PM. HOWEVER, SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY INTO SUN. AS SUCH, SCAS FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH SCAS
POTENTIALLY NEEDING TO BE EXTENDED INTO A PORTION OF SUN.
RIP CURRENTS: WITH LINGERING LONG-PERIOD (12-13S) SWELLS AND
NEARSHORE BREAKING WAVES OF 4-5 FEET SAT AND 4 FEET SUN, DANGEROUS
SWIMMING CONDITIONS AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. LONG-PERIOD SWELL AND AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 915 AM EDT FRIDAY...
TIDAL ANOMALIES IN THE LOWER BAY AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY
LOWERING. FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER BAY, TIDAL ANOMALIES CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY RISE. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED AT MOST GAUGES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER BAY, WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR FLOODING FORECAST FOR SOME GAUGES FOR
COASTAL COMMUNITIES ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY
(MIDDLE PENINSULA AND NORTHERN NECK, BAY SIDE OF THE EASTERN
SHORE) AND IN THE LYNNHAVEN VICINITY OF VA BEACH. COASTAL FLOOD
WARNINGS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
CHESAPEAKE BAY, INCLUDING AREAS ADJACENT TO THE TIDAL
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN
THAT SMITHFIELD IS EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE FOR
THE NEXT TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES AND JAMESTOWN IS EXPECTED TO REACH
NEAR MODERATE FLOOD STATE (WITHIN 0.05-0.1 FEET), HAVE OPTED TO
UPGRADE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES TO COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS
FOR THE LOWER BAY. HOWEVER, WILL NOTE THAT THE TIDAL YORK WILL
LIKELY PEAK AT MINOR FLOOD STAGE. TIDAL ANOMALIES FALL BY THIS
EVENING WITH NUISANCE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE LOWER BAY BEYOND THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE.
BEYOND THIS UPCOMING TIDE CYCLE, THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH TIDE
CYCLES THAT EXPERIENCE MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING (MAINLY
ACROSS THE UPPER BAY) AS THE HIGH ANOMALIES FROM ERIN'S SWELL
LINGERS, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE UPPER BAY COULD SEE
ADDITIONAL FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES LINGERING INTO
SUNDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, ADDITIONAL INSTANCES OF MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE
BEACH EROSION ARE LIKELY TODAY DUE TO THE EXTENDED DURATION OF
THE LARGE, BREAKING WAVES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
NEARSHORE BREAKING WAVES OF 4-8 FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ075-077.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ076-078-
083>086-518-520>522.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ082-089-
090-093-095>097-523>525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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