168
FXUS61 KAKQ 230902
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
502 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
LARGE WAVES, LINGERING COASTAL FLOODING, AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND FROM THE DISTANT EFFECTS
OF NOW POST-TROPICAL ERIN. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. DRY AND
VERY PLEASANT FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND WARM TODAY.
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT ALL AREA BEACHES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
BROAD ~1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS DRAPED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS MORNING. THE REMNANT POST-TROPICAL LOW OF HURRICANE ERIN IS
LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC, ROUGHLY AT THE SAME LONGITUDE AS
NEWFOUNDLAND. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD, NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, SOME
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH IS LEADING TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS OUR FAR W AND NW COUNTIES. RATHER IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS OCCURRING E OF THE CLOUDS AND TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST, WITH MID
60S AT THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE.
THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN DEW POINTS AS
THE LOW-LEVEL WIND DIRECTION SLOWLY VEERS TO THE SE. CLOUD COVER
TODAY WILL BE A MIX OF LOWER-LEVEL CUMULUS FROM SFC HEATING AND
UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS FROM AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BEING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS
INCREASE ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC FURTHER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST.
ALSO, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
OTHERWISE, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY, BUT LIKELY GETS
HUNG UP JUST W OF OUR CWA. TO OUR SOUTH, THE SFC TROUGH/WEAK LOW
LIFTS N ALONG THE NC COAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG OUT OF
THE MIDWEST. THE FRONTAL FORCING, WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING, AND
INCREASING DEW POINTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE BLUE RIDGE AND PIEDMONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
IS PROGGED TO BE QUITE MODEST (MLCAPE <1000 J/KG), BUT STILL THINK
WE'LL GET SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. THE
HIGHEST POPS ARE IN SE VA AND ESPECIALLY NE NC FROM THE LATE MORNING
HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW PASSING TO THE S. CANNOT RULE
OUT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS DOWN HERE AS WELL THOUGH THE MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED S OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND EASTWARD TO THE
OUTER BANKS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR INTO THE NORTHERN
NECK AND EASTERN SHORE, A RELATIVE MINIMA IN PRECIP COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED WITH POPS 20% OR LESS. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH THROUGH
MONDAY AND A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD REDEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, COVERAGE LOOKS QUITE SPARSE WITH
DECENT DRY AIR ADVECTION ON THE HEELS ON THE FRONT.
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER FOR HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WITH LOWER 80S ACROSS
SE VA/NE NC (DUE TO HIGHER PRECIP/CLOUD COVERAGE) AND MID 80S
ELSEWHERE. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
TEMPS SURGE IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC WITH LOWER-MID
80S TO THE N AND NW. FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE IN THE MID-UPPER
60S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S MONDAY NIGHT (AS
COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT).
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 245 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- VERY NICE NEXT WEEK WITH LOTS OF SUN AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.
ALL SIGNS POINT TO ENDING AUGUST ON AN AUTUMNAL, PUMPKIN SPICE-
FLAVORED, NOTE. STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA
BUILDS TOWARD GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN CONUS MID-LATE
WEEK. THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT A
DEEP TROUGH DIPS IN OVERHEAD AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR. DEW POINTS AS LOW AS THE
UPPER 40S ARE ALSO EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK. THE CONTINENTAL ORIGIN OF
THE AIRMASS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP A NEARLY
0% CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS THROUGH THE
WEEK ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND IN THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80 F. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S
INLAND AND LOW 60S IN THE EAST, BUT THESE COULD CERTAINLY TREND
COOLER AS NBM TENDS TO RUN HIGH IN THESE PATTERNS. IN FACT, THE
CURRENTLY AVAILABLE STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE.
CU DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SE VA AND W OF RIC. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS LATER TODAY, BECOMING BKN BY THIS EVENING. WINDS AVERAGE
5-10 KT OUT OF THE E/ESE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT, BUT WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
MARINE
AS OF 245 AM EDT SATURDAY...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO HAZARDOUS
SEAS.
- OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY, BEFORE
SLIDING OFFSHORE LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY. LOOK FOR DIMINISHING
E-SE WINDS TODAY INTO SUNDAY, BEFORE WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE
S-SW TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
ACROSS THE WATERS.
- COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF ERIN SOUTHEAST
OF NEWFOUNDLAND, HEADING FARTHER OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
LOCALLY, WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT OR LESS OVER THE
LOWER MID-ATLANTIC, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE E-SE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD THE FROM NW. SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO COME
DOWN AS EXPECTED GIVEN THE ONGOING E-NE LONG PERIOD SWELL (10-12
SECONDS) WITH SEAS LINGERING IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE NEARSHORE, 5-7 FT
JUST OFFSHORE. WAVES IN THE BAY HAVE SUBSIDED TO 1-2 FT, UP TO
AROUND 3 FT IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY, WHERE THE SCA HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. E-SE WINDS AVERAGE ~10KT TODAY, DIMINISHING
UNDER 10 KT TONIGHT. SEAS LOOK TO FINALLY DROP BELOW 5FT ON SUNDAY
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS, ALLOWING SCA TO FINALLY BE
LOWERED...THOUGH SOUTHERN WATERS MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK
TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. A DEEPENING SFC LOW ALONG THAT FRONT
SCOOTS BY TO OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE, WHICH TURNS WINDS AROUND
TO THE SSW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, TURNING NW AND INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO 10-15KT LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A SECOND,
STRONGER FRONT THEN CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WIND PROBS FOR GUSTS ~20 KT HAVE INCREASED TO 30-50% IN THE BAY, AND
THUS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND
AND JUST BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING, AS COOLER, DRIER AIR BUILDS
SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: WITH LINGERING LONG-PERIOD (10-14S) SWELLS AND
NEARSHORE BREAKING WAVES OF 6+ FEET, DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS
AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...
TIDAL ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER IN THE LOWER BAY,
REMAINING STEADY OVER THE BAY SIDE OF THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE (MD)
AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. FARTHER
SOUTH, EASING ANOMALIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR IMPROVING TIDES OVER THE
NEXT FEW CYCLES, THOUGH SOME MINOR FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER
THE TIDAL RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER AND THE VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE, AND A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH,
ANOMALIES HAVE DIPPED ENOUGH THAT ONLY NUISANCE/NEAR-MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE MARGINAL TIDE LEVELS
HAVE MAINTAINED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE TIDAL YORK AND
JAMES RIVERS THROUGH THIS EVENING'S TIDE CYCLE..
BEYOND TONIGHT, LINGERING MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY, BEFORE TIDES FINALLY EASE A BIT INTO THE DAY
MONDAY AS WINDS FINALLY SWITCH OFFSHORE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ075-077.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ076-078-
084>086-518-520>522.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...AC/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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