202
FXUS61 KAKQ 070821
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
421 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
AUTUMNAL CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. CLOUDY, BREEZY, AND COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. SUNNIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TO END
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DREARY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
OFFSHORE. CLEARING OUT FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT IS CUTTING THROUGH THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN HAVE LONG SINCE ENDED, SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN, DRIZZLE, AND PATCHY FOG PERSIST. DREARY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES
OFFSHORE AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON, SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR OUT FROM NW TO SE. THIS PROCESS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE FAR SE STAYING
MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE OVERCAST SKIES,
MISTY CONDITIONS, AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 70S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA, AND THE MID-UPPER 70S FOR THE SOUTHSIDE OF HAMPTON ROADS
AND ALONG THE CURRITUCK/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT SINCE THE COOLER, DRIER
AIR WILL STILL BE FILTERING IN OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
BE UNDER CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS YIELDED LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S FOR THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COUNTIES AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S IN
THE SE/NEAR THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- AUTUMNAL WEATHER REMAINS IN THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S AND DRIER AIR MOVING BACK IN.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MAKES IT OFFSHORE, GUIDANCE DEPICTS IT GETTING
HUNG UP WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH FORMING ALONG IT. THIS TROUGH SLIDES
E ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY ON MONDAY, BUT COULD SEE SOME
LINGERING CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. MEANWHILE, HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND BUILDS S DOWN THE EAST COAST.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NE
WINDS WHICH WILL BE HIGHEST AT THE SE COAST, GUSTING UP TO 25MPH.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
RANGE FROM AROUND 50 IN THE PIEDMONT TO THE MID 60S IN THE SE.
TUESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST AS THAT TROUGH RETROGRADES A
BIT, WHICH WILL ALSO LEAD TO CLOUDIER SKIES. MILDER TUES NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 245 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
THE CAD SET UP LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED. THIS MEANS MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES, GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS, AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN IN THE EAST AGAIN ON WED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S. LOWS
WED NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NW TO THE MID 60S AT
THE COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
COAST THURS, LEADING TO PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S-LOW 80S. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT THEN SWOOPS IN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. FORECAST HIGHS FOR
SATURDAY ARE BACK TO THE MID 70S.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 140 AM EDT SUNDAY...
LATEST OBS INDICATE VFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG IT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING. STILL EXPECTING DEGRADING FLIGHT CONDITIONS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS MUCH LOWER BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE.
INSTEAD, FAVORING MVFR CIGS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL SEE
GRADUAL CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TODAY FROM NW TO SE,
STARTING AT RIC AND SBY BETWEEN 16-19Z. NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BECOMING GUSTY AT THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED N OF THE REGION MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BRING SOME LOWER CIGS AND A CHC OF
SHOWERS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC TUESDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY AND VFR.
MARINE
AS OF 400 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND HAVE ADDED THE CURRITUCK SOUND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THE COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE CHARLES STARTING
LATER TONIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL ZONES WILL LIKELY NEED SCAS STARTING LATER MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE MARINE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A NORTHERLY SURGE OF
STRONGER WIND IS SEEN IN OBS ACROSS THE UPPER BAY AND THIS WILL
PUSH SOUTH INTO THE LOWER BAY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS N WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE
BAY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF TODAY, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING FROM N
TO S LATER THIS AFTERNOON (AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY SETTLING IN FROM THE NW). TH BAY
HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE
NORTHERN BAY IN PARTICULAR COULD BE CLEARED A FEW HOURS EARLY,
WHILE THE LOWER BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 7 PM. WAVES IN
THE BAY WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT N AND 3-4 FT S TODAY. ELSEWHERE ON
THE OCEAN, SEAS REMAIN IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE.
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO ADVECT OVER THE WATERS HELPING CREATE A MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD WITH STRONG N/NE WINDS, INITIALLY ACROSS THE
LOWER BAY/LOWER JAMES, THE OCEAN S OF PARRAMORE, AND THE
CURRITUCK SOUND. BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE SFC HIGH IS
FORECAST TO BUILD EAST TO NEW ENGLAND (AT 1030MB+), WHILE A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OFF THE SE COAST,
ACTUALLY RETROGRADING A BIT TO THE NW CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE
SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST TO ATLANTIC CANADA. ALL OF THIS WILL ACT
TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD
OF INCREASINGLY ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD. SCAS ARE LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA, WITH STRONG
SCAS FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAY AND OCEAN. GIVEN THAT
THESE SETUPS TEND TO OVERPERFORM THE MODELS, CANNOT RULE OUT OF
PERIOD OF GALE-FORCE WINDS TUESDAY IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND
LOWER BAY. WILL NOTE THAT THE 00Z/07 NAM IS AN OUTLIER WITH NO
SUPPORT FROM ANY OTHER GUIDANCE, AND ITS DEPICTION OF WIDESPREAD
GALES WITH A MORE DEVELOPED INTENSE SFC LOW JUST OFFSHORE HAS
BEEN DISREGARDED. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT BY
TUESDAY, AND THIS COULD BE UNDERDONE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY (I.E.,
9-10 FT SEAS ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY OFFSHORE
IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS). WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE ISSUED FOR VA BEACH AND THE NORTHERN NC
OUTER BANKS FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, BUT SCAS ARE VERY LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS.
THE RIP CURRENT THREAT IS MODERATE SOUTH TODAY (LOW NORTH),
INCREASING TO HIGH SOUTH, MODERATE NORTH BY MONDAY. A HIGH RISK
IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH SEAS OFFSHORE IS
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LITTLE TO NO TIDAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, BUT WATER LEVELS WILL
INCREASE LATER MONDAY, WITH MINOR FLOODING LOOKING PROBABLE
WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THAT STARTS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE
LOWER BAY/LOWER JAMES, AND SE VA/NE NC ZONES ALONG THE OCEAN.
THIS COULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH LATER
TIDE CYCLES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODERATE OR GREATER FLOODING IS
GENERALLY NOT ANTICIPATED.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/AC
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...LKB/SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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