738
FXUS61 KAKQ 080535
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
135 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
AUTUMNAL CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. MOSTLY CLOUDY, BREEZY, AND COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK ALONG THE COAST WITH MORE SUN AND LESS
WIND FARTHER INLAND. SUNNIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TO END THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 810 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE LINGER THIS EVENING
EAST OF I-95.
- CLEARING HAS BEGUN ACROSS THE WEST LEADING TO MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
A DEEP TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ITS AXIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-
SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE, 1025MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE
MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BUILDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED S OF THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND AND IS NEARING THE SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT
TO CAPE HATTERAS. CLOUDY AND COOL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
60S. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S OVER FAR SE VA AND NE NC
NEAR AND ALONG THE COASTLINES.
DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR SHOULD GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TAPERING
OFF. TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, EVEN NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND WITH
COOL/STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW. GRADUAL CLEARING OCCURS FROM CENTRAL
VA TO THE EASTERN SHORE TONIGHT, WHILE SE VA AND NE NC REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT RANGE FROM
AROUND 50F (SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE) ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT, TO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, AND LOWER TO MID 60S
FAR SE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- AUTUMNAL WEATHER REMAINS IN THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S AND DRIER AIR MOVING BACK IN.
- LOCALLY MORE CLOUDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.
THE COLD FRONT SETTLES OFFSHORE MONDAY WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS TROUGH SLIDES FAR ENOUGH E
TO KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY MONDAY, BUT COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. MEANWHILE, HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND BUILDS S DOWN THE EAST
COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY NE WINDS, WHICH WILL BE HIGHEST AT THE COASTLINES OF SE
VA AND NE NC, AND GUSTING UP TO 25MPH. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
PRIMARILY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM AROUND 50F IN THE
PIEDMONT TO THE MID 60S IN THE SE, WITH SOME MID/UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE IN TYPICAL COOLER LOCATIONS IN THE PIEDMONT. TUESDAY
WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS A
FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST OF SE VA AND NE NC AS THAT TROUGH
RETROGRADES A BIT, WHICH WILL ALSO LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER. THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
WITH A WEAK LOW POTENTIALLY FORMING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST, AND WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A 20-40% CHC OF LIGHT RAIN CLOSER TO
AND ALONG THE COAST. MILDER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S, WITH LOWER 50S FAR NW. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST, TO
THE MID/UPPER 70S FARTHER INLAND.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST LATER THIS WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
THE COASTAL TROUGH/WEAK SURFACE LOW SHOULD FINALLY MOVE AWAY
FROM THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY, LEADING TO PLEASANT
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-LOW 80S, AFTER MORNING
LOWS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA
NEXT WEEKEND WITH ONSHORE/NE FLOW RETURNING. FORECAST HIGHS FOR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY ARE BACK INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE COAST
TO MID/UPPER 70S FARTHER INLAND. LOWS ARE MAINLY IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 135 AM EDT MONDAY...
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
SKIES ARE OVERCAST OVER THE TERMINALS AS OF LATEST OBS, BUT
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE NW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE CLOUD DECK OVER MOST OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD AT LEAST
SCATTER OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON IF NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY. HOWEVER,
BKN SKIES LIKELY LINGER OVER ECG. HAVE SEEN A FEW OBS IN THE
PIEDMONT SHOW FOG, SO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF VSBY
REDUCTIONS AT RIC, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME. NE WINDS BECOME ELEVATED TODAY WITH
HIGHEST WINDS IN THE SE, GUSTING TO 25KT. WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED N OF THE REGION MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH A FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY MAY BRING SOME LOWER CIGS AND A CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS
SE VA AND NE NC TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, MAINLY
DRY AND VFR FARTHER INLAND, AND THEN DRY AND VFR FOR ALL
TERMINALS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AND PERSIST
FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER
JAMES RIVER, COASTAL WATERS, AND CURRITUCK SOUND. SEAS ALSO
BUILD CONSIDERABLY TO 6-8 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS BY TUESDAY.
- ELEVATED SEAS AND POTENTIAL SCAS LINGER THROUGH ALL OF THIS
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, WINDS ARE ELEVATED AT 15-20 KT
ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE CURRITUCK SOUND ALSO INCLUDED
DUE TO THE N-S WIND FETCH. THE SCA FOR THE SOUND AND CHESAPEAKE
BAY S OF NEW POINT COMFORT IS IN EFFECT ALL THE WAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT TO CAPTURE THE SECOND WIND SURGE WHICH BEGINS
TONIGHT, SINCE THERE WILL ONLY BE A SHORT (2-4 HR) LULL IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO PERIODS THIS EVENING. THE NORTHERN BAY SCA
DROPS OFF AT 4 PM, BUT WILL BE REISSUING FOR HERE STARTING AT 1
AM TONIGHT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 3-4 FT, WITH SIMILAR WAVES (2-4 FT)
IN THE BAY.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WINDS IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SHOULD DROP OFF
SOME THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
HOWEVER, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
BEGINS LATE TONIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND, WHICH WILL ACT TO
PROGRESSIVELY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS. NE WINDS BECOME 15-20 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BAY AND
COASTAL WATERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KT ALSO EXPECTED BY THIS TIME. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD. A WEAK
LOW COULD ALSO DEVELOP BY LATER TUESDAY ALONG THIS TROUGH, BUT
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR,
THERE WOULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WIND GUSTS APPROACHING
GALE FORCE. THE CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
15-25 KT WINDS (20-25 KT ON THE COASTAL WATERS) FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ARE
ALSO EXPECTED, WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS OF 30-35 KT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS (ESPECIALLY S OF CAPE CHARLES).
REGARDING HEADLINES, SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS FOR THESE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MARINERS
SHOULD BE AWARE OF THESE ADVERSE CONDITIONS. THE UPPER RIVERS
WILL WILL LIKELY BE ADDED AT SOME POINT, BUT IT IS MORE
MARGINAL. SEAS WILL ALSO RAPIDLY BUILD TO 4-6 FT MONDAY AND THEN
6-8 FT TUESDAY, THOUGH THESE PEAK VALUES COULD BE HIGHER IN OUR
SOUTHERN OCEAN ZONES BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN
TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL
WATERS DUE TO SEAS GREATER THAN 5 FT. ONSHORE NORTHEAST WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: A HIGH RISK IS EXPECTED FOR VA BEACH AND THE NC
OBX MONDAY,WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR NORTHERN BEACHES. ALL AREA
BEACHES WILL HAVE A HIGH RISK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH SEAS OFFSHORE IS
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LITTLE TO NO TIDAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, BUT WATER LEVELS WILL
INCREASE LATER MONDAY, WITH MINOR FLOODING LOOKING PROBABLE
WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THAT STARTS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE
LOWER BAY/LOWER JAMES, AND SE VA/NE NC ZONES ALONG THE OCEAN.
THIS COULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH LATER
TIDE CYCLES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODERATE OR GREATER FLOODING IS
GENERALLY NOT ANTICIPATED.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632>634-
656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/AC
NEAR TERM...AJZ/HET
SHORT TERM...AJZ/AC
LONG TERM...AJZ/AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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