533
FXUS61 KAKQ 080613
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
213 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
AUTUMNAL CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. MOSTLY CLOUDY, BREEZY, AND COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK ALONG THE COAST WITH MORE SUN AND LESS
WIND FARTHER INLAND. SUNNIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TO END THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 210 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT INLAND, OVERCAST AND BREEZY AT THE
COAST. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
THE COLD FRONT THAT IMPACTED THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND HAS
HUNG UP OFFSHORE AND A COASTAL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING ALONG IT.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST IS BUILDING
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE E INTO NEW ENGLAND
TODAY AS THE INVERTED TROUGH AMPLIFIES JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SET
UP LIKELY REMAINS MORE OR LESS IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK.
OVERCAST SKIES PERSIST ALONG AND SE OF A LINE FROM MECKLENBURG TO
DORCHESTER COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NW TO
SE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT ONLY IT WILL REMAIN
CLOUDIER NEAR THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
HAVE PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY, ALBEIT A BIT BREEZY. HIGHS ARE IN THE
MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP TO AROUND 50. NOT QUITE SO NICE IN
THE SE AND ALONG THE COAST. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
CHILLY, THERE WILL BE ELEVATED ONSHORE WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25MPH.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT, BUT STILL BREEZY BY THE WATER. BETWEEN
THE CLOUDS AND WIND, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. A LOT COOLER INLAND WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S-MID 50S (COOLEST NW).
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 210 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- AUTUMNAL WEATHER REMAINS IN THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S AND DRIER AIR MOVING BACK IN.
- LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
THE INVERTED TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARD THE COAST TUES AND WED
AND A CLOSED AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS SOMEWHERE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST
AND RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. CLOUDS BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
FROM THE E ON TUES AND MUCH OF THE FA WILL BE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY OR
OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH WED. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS E OF I-95 TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WED. HOW MUCH RAIN AND HOW FAR WEST IT GOES WILL
DEPEND ON WHERE THAT SFC LOW FORMS AND HOW CLOSE TO THE SHORE IT
STAYS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP IT FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THEREFORE
KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA DRY. MEANWHILE, THE GFS IS THE WETTEST OF
THE MODELS AND ACTUALLY BRINGS A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN TO THE COAST.
HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE
50S INLAND, 60S AT THE COAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 210 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY, MOSTLY SUNNY, AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-AROUND 80
THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND DO NOT LOOK QUITE SO DREARY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS OVER THE EAST COAST AND THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N STRENGTHENS, KICKING THE COASTAL TROUGH FURTHER
OFFSHORE. HIGHS PRESSURE AND THE UL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE PERIOD OVERALL LOOKS VERY PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH DAY THURS-SUN. THIS WILL BE A DRY
PERIOD AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND NO CHANCES FOR RAIN.
LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S-LOW 60S.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 135 AM EDT MONDAY...
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
SKIES ARE OVERCAST OVER THE TERMINALS AS OF LATEST OBS, BUT
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE NW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE CLOUD DECK OVER MOST OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD AT LEAST
SCATTER OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON IF NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY. HOWEVER,
BKN SKIES LIKELY LINGER OVER ECG. HAVE SEEN A FEW OBS IN THE
PIEDMONT SHOW FOG, SO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF VSBY
REDUCTIONS AT RIC, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME. NE WINDS BECOME ELEVATED TODAY WITH
HIGHEST WINDS IN THE SE, GUSTING TO 25KT. WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED N OF THE REGION MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH A FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY MAY BRING SOME LOWER CIGS AND A CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS
SE VA AND NE NC TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, MAINLY
DRY AND VFR FARTHER INLAND, AND THEN DRY AND VFR FOR ALL
TERMINALS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AND PERSIST
FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER
JAMES RIVER, COASTAL WATERS, AND CURRITUCK SOUND. SEAS ALSO
BUILD CONSIDERABLY TO 6-8 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS BY TUESDAY.
- ELEVATED SEAS AND POTENTIAL SCAS LINGER THROUGH ALL OF THIS
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, WINDS ARE ELEVATED AT 15-20 KT
ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE CURRITUCK SOUND ALSO INCLUDED
DUE TO THE N-S WIND FETCH. THE SCA FOR THE SOUND AND CHESAPEAKE
BAY S OF NEW POINT COMFORT IS IN EFFECT ALL THE WAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT TO CAPTURE THE SECOND WIND SURGE WHICH BEGINS
TONIGHT, SINCE THERE WILL ONLY BE A SHORT (2-4 HR) LULL IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO PERIODS THIS EVENING. THE NORTHERN BAY SCA
DROPS OFF AT 4 PM, BUT WILL BE REISSUING FOR HERE STARTING AT 1
AM TONIGHT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 3-4 FT, WITH SIMILAR WAVES (2-4 FT)
IN THE BAY.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WINDS IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SHOULD DROP OFF
SOME THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
HOWEVER, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
BEGINS LATE TONIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND, WHICH WILL ACT TO
PROGRESSIVELY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS. NE WINDS BECOME 15-20 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BAY AND
COASTAL WATERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KT ALSO EXPECTED BY THIS TIME. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD. A WEAK
LOW COULD ALSO DEVELOP BY LATER TUESDAY ALONG THIS TROUGH, BUT
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR,
THERE WOULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WIND GUSTS APPROACHING
GALE FORCE. THE CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
15-25 KT WINDS (20-25 KT ON THE COASTAL WATERS) FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ARE
ALSO EXPECTED, WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS OF 30-35 KT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS (ESPECIALLY S OF CAPE CHARLES).
REGARDING HEADLINES, SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS FOR THESE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MARINERS
SHOULD BE AWARE OF THESE ADVERSE CONDITIONS. THE UPPER RIVERS
WILL WILL LIKELY BE ADDED AT SOME POINT, BUT IT IS MORE
MARGINAL. SEAS WILL ALSO RAPIDLY BUILD TO 4-6 FT MONDAY AND THEN
6-8 FT TUESDAY, THOUGH THESE PEAK VALUES COULD BE HIGHER IN OUR
SOUTHERN OCEAN ZONES BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN
TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL
WATERS DUE TO SEAS GREATER THAN 5 FT. ONSHORE NORTHEAST WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: A HIGH RISK IS EXPECTED FOR VA BEACH AND THE NC
OBX MONDAY,WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR NORTHERN BEACHES. ALL AREA
BEACHES WILL HAVE A HIGH RISK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH SEAS OFFSHORE IS
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LITTLE TO NO TIDAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, BUT WATER LEVELS WILL
INCREASE LATER MONDAY, WITH MINOR FLOODING LOOKING PROBABLE
WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THAT STARTS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE
LOWER BAY/LOWER JAMES, AND SE VA/NE NC ZONES ALONG THE OCEAN.
THIS COULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH LATER
TIDE CYCLES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODERATE OR GREATER FLOODING IS
GENERALLY NOT ANTICIPATED.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632>634-
656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/AC
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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