769
FXUS61 KAKQ 080833
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
433 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
AUTUMNAL CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. MOSTLY CLOUDY, BREEZY, AND COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK ALONG THE COAST WITH MORE SUN AND LESS
WIND FARTHER INLAND. SUNNIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TO END THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 210 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT INLAND, OVERCAST AND BREEZY AT THE
COAST. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
THE COLD FRONT THAT IMPACTED THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND HAS
HUNG UP OFFSHORE AND A COASTAL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING ALONG IT.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST IS BUILDING
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE E INTO NEW ENGLAND
TODAY AS THE INVERTED TROUGH AMPLIFIES JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SET
UP LIKELY REMAINS MORE OR LESS IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK.
OVERCAST SKIES PERSIST ALONG AND SE OF A LINE FROM MECKLENBURG TO
DORCHESTER COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. GRADUAL CLEARING FROM NW TO
SE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT ONLY IT WILL REMAIN
CLOUDIER NEAR THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
HAVE PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY, ALBEIT A BIT BREEZY. HIGHS ARE IN THE
MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP TO AROUND 50. NOT QUITE SO NICE IN
THE SE AND ALONG THE COAST. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
CHILLY, THERE WILL BE ELEVATED ONSHORE WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25MPH.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT, BUT STILL BREEZY BY THE WATER. BETWEEN
THE CLOUDS AND WIND, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD IN THE
MID-UPPER 60S. A LOT COOLER INLAND WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S-MID 50S (COOLEST NW).
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 210 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- AUTUMNAL WEATHER REMAINS IN THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S AND DRIER AIR MOVING BACK IN.
- LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
THE INVERTED TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARD THE COAST TUES AND WED
AND A CLOSED AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS SOMEWHERE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST
AND RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST. CLOUDS BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
FROM THE E ON TUES AND MUCH OF THE FA WILL BE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY OR
OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH WED. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS E OF I-95 TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WED. HOW MUCH RAIN AND HOW FAR WEST IT GOES WILL
DEPEND ON WHERE THAT SFC LOW FORMS AND HOW CLOSE TO THE SHORE IT
STAYS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP IT FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THEREFORE
KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA DRY. MEANWHILE, THE GFS IS THE WETTEST OF
THE MODELS AND ACTUALLY BRINGS A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN TO THE COAST.
HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE
50S INLAND, 60S AT THE COAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 210 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY, MOSTLY SUNNY, AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-AROUND 80
THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND DO NOT LOOK QUITE SO DREARY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS OVER THE EAST COAST AND THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N STRENGTHENS, KICKING THE COASTAL TROUGH FURTHER
OFFSHORE. HIGHS PRESSURE AND THE UL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE PERIOD OVERALL LOOKS VERY PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH DAY THURS-SUN. THIS WILL BE A DRY
PERIOD AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND NO CHANCES FOR RAIN.
LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S-LOW 60S.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 135 AM EDT MONDAY...
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
SKIES ARE OVERCAST OVER THE TERMINALS AS OF LATEST OBS, BUT
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE NW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE CLOUD DECK OVER MOST OF THE TERMINALS SHOULD AT LEAST
SCATTER OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON IF NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY. HOWEVER,
BKN SKIES LIKELY LINGER OVER ECG. HAVE SEEN A FEW OBS IN THE
PIEDMONT SHOW FOG, SO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF VSBY
REDUCTIONS AT RIC, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME. NE WINDS BECOME ELEVATED TODAY WITH
HIGHEST WINDS IN THE SE, GUSTING TO 25KT. WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED N OF THE REGION MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH A FRONT STALLED OFFSHORE. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY MAY BRING SOME LOWER CIGS AND A CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS
SE VA AND NE NC TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, MAINLY
DRY AND VFR FARTHER INLAND, AND THEN DRY AND VFR FOR ALL
TERMINALS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY,
LOWER JAMES RIVER, COASTAL WATERS, AND CURRITUCK SOUND INTO
WED. SEAS ALSO BUILD CONSIDERABLY TO 6-8 FT ON THE COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY.
- HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE NW THU-FRI, ALLOWING FOR
PROBABLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, THOUGH WINDS/WAVES REMAIN
ELEVATED. ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL SCAS COULD DEVELOP NEXT
WEEKEND.
N/NE WINDS ARE INCREASING THIS MORNING, AND WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY, GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND OCEAN FROM
CAPE CHARLES S TO COROLLA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHARPENING
COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE GULF STREAM FROM NORTHERN FL TO OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES (TODAY) BUILDING TO NEW ENGLAND (TUESDAY), WHICH
WILL ACT TO PROGRESSIVELY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS. NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BAY AND COASTAL WATERS TODAY, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25-30 KT
ALSO EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD. A WEAK LOW COULD ALSO
DEVELOP BY LATER TUESDAY ALONG THIS TROUGH, BUT THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, THERE WOULD
BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WIND GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 15-25 KT
WINDS (20-25 KT ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER BAY) FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25-30 KT
ARE ALSO EXPECTED, WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS OF 30-35 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS (ESPECIALLY S OF CAPE CHARLES).
REGARDING HEADLINES, SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WED AFTN
FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS FOR THESE WIND. THE UPPER RIVERS
WILL WILL LIKELY BE ADDED AT SOME POINT, BUT IT IS MORE MARGINAL.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT S (AND 4-5 FT N) LATER TODAY/TONIGHT,
INCREASING TO 6-8 FT TUESDAY, THOUGH THESE PEAK VALUES COULD BE
HIGHER IN OUR SOUTHERN OCEAN ZONES BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS
AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE
ON THE COASTAL WATERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO SEAS GREATER
THAN 5 FT. THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR W LOOKS TO
BUILD IN THU-FRI, ENOUGH TO RELAX THE PRESSURE TO SOME EXTENT
WITH MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED (THOUGH WINDS STAY
ELEVATED AT 10-20KT). ONSHORE NORTHEAST WINDS MAY POTENTIALLY
INCREASE AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
RIP CURRENTS: A HIGH RISK IS EXPECTED FOR VA BEACH AND THE NC
OBX TODAY, WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR NORTHERN BEACHES. ALL AREA
BEACHES WILL HAVE A HIGH RISK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH SEAS OFFSHORE WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING WATER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW TIDE CYCLES.
NO TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TODAY, THOUGH A FEW SITES MAY GET
INTO ACTION STAGE BY THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR, WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT AT REACHING INTO MINOR FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THAT STARTS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER BAY, AND SE
VA/NE NC ZONES ALONG THE OCEAN (AND OCCURS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN FARTHER UP THE JAMES RIVER. STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO ISSUE
ANY COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES SO WILL HOLD OFF ONE MORE CYCLE TO
SEE HOW WATER LEVELS REACT TODAY, BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE SUBSEQUENT
HIGH TIDES TUE NIGHT AND WED WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE A BIT
HIGHER SO AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR
THESE ZONES, LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FARTHER NORTH, DEPARTURES
WILL TAKE LONGER TO INCREASE, BUT ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY RISE
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING MINOR FLOODING BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ANYTHING MORE THAN
PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED LOW- END MODERATE FLOODING LATE
TUESDAY/WED IN THE LOWER BAY/LOWER JAMES AND VA BEACH TO NC OBX,
SO COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. WATER
LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED WITH PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, THOUGH DEPARTURES LIKELY DROP OFF A BIT BY
THURSDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632>634-
656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/AC
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...LKB/SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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