851
FXUS61 KAKQ 081825
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
225 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT CONDITIONS INLAND AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER
THIS WEEK BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 225 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MOSTLY CLEAR AND PLEASANT INLAND TONIGHT, PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND BREEZY AT THE COAST.
1026MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING
ALONG A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. THIS IS RESULTING IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WITH A NE WIND OF 15-20 MPH GUSTING
TO ~25 MPH. SUNNY INLAND AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE
COAST. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN VICINITY
OF THE LOWER CHES. BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SHIFTS TOWARD ATLANTIC
CANADA TUESDAY. CLEAR INLAND TONIGHT AND PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE
COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
INLAND, WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND WIND, AND CLOUD COVER POTENTIALLY THICKENING IN THE
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND MID/UPPER 70S
INLAND. SOME CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST ALONG WITH A
BREEZY NE WIND.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 225 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- AUTUMNAL WEATHER REMAINS IN THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S AND DRIER AIR MOVING BACK IN.
- LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
THE INVERTED TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARD THE COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND A CLOSED AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS
SOMEWHERE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST.
CLOUDS BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE E TUESDAY NIGHT AND
MUCH OF THE FA WILL BE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY OR OVERCAST SKIES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS FAVORABLE UPPER JET FORCING MOVES OVERHEAD.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLY
CONDITIONS FOR AREAS E OF I-95 TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOW
MUCH RAIN AND HOW FAR WEST IT GOES WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THAT
SFC LOW FORMS AND HOW CLOSE TO THE SHORE IT STAYS. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH MORE CLOUD COVER,
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE COASTAL
TROUGH/WEAK SURFACE LOW SHOULD FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY, LEADING TO PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-LOW 80S, AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S TO
MID 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 225 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY, MOSTLY SUNNY, AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-AROUND 80
THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE RATHER PLEASANT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS OVER THE EAST COAST AND THE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N STRENGTHENS, KICKING THE COASTAL
TROUGH FURTHER OFFSHORE. HIGHS PRESSURE AND THE UL THEN REMAIN
IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PERIOD OVERALL LOOKS VERY
PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH DAY
THURS-SUN. THIS WILL BE A DRY PERIOD AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S AND NO CHANCES FOR RAIN. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S-LOW 60S.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 225 PM EDT MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED N OF THE REGION AS OF 18Z, WITH A
COLD FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE. VFR WITH A NE WIND OF 10-15KT
INLAND, AND 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO ~25KT CLOSER TO AND ALONG THE
COAST. SCT-BKN CU ARE STREAMING INLAND ALONG THE COAST WITH
BASES OF 3.5-4.5KFT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT, WITH
SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE COAST TUESDAY AS
BANDS OF MARINE SC STREAM ONSHORE. THE WIND WILL BE NE 5-10KT
INLAND AND 10-15KT ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT, AND THEN NE 10-15KT
INLAND AND 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO ~25KT TOWARD THE COAST.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BRING SOME MVFR
CIGS AND A CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY AND VFR FARTHER INLAND, AND
THEN DRY AND VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 700 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY,
LOWER JAMES RIVER, COASTAL WATERS, AND CURRITUCK SOUND INTO
WED (AND FOR THE UPPER JAMES/YORK THROUGH THIS AFTN). SEAS
ALSO BUILD CONSIDERABLY TO 6-8 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS BY
LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY.
- HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE NW THU-FRI, ALLOWING FOR
PROBABLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, THOUGH WINDS/WAVES REMAIN
ELEVATED. ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL SCAS COULD DEVELOP NEXT
WEEKEND.
N/NE WINDS ARE INCREASING THIS MORNING, AND WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY, GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND OCEAN FROM
CAPE CHARLES S TO COROLLA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHARPENING
COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE GULF STREAM FROM NORTHERN FL TO OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES (TODAY) BUILDING TO NEW ENGLAND (TUESDAY), WHICH
WILL ACT TO PROGRESSIVELY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS. NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
BAY AND COASTAL WATERS TODAY, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25-30 KT
ALSO EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD. A WEAK LOW COULD ALSO
DEVELOP BY LATER TUESDAY ALONG THIS TROUGH, BUT THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, THERE WOULD
BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WIND GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE.
THE CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 15-25 KT
WINDS (20-25 KT ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER BAY) FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25-30 KT
ARE ALSO EXPECTED, WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS OF 30-35 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS (ESPECIALLY S OF CAPE CHARLES).
REGARDING HEADLINES, SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WED AFTN
FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS FOR THESE WINDS. THE UPPER RIVERS
MINUS THE RAPPAHANNOCK HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR TODAY THROUGH 4 PM,
AND ADDITIONAL PERIODS MAY BE ADDED AGAIN FOR TUESDAY, BUT IT
IS MORE MARGINAL. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT S (AND 4-5 FT N)
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 6-8 FT TUESDAY, THOUGH THESE
PEAK VALUES COULD BE HIGHER IN OUR SOUTHERN OCEAN ZONES BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE VERY
LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY DUE
TO SEAS GREATER THAN 5 FT. THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF
TO OUR W LOOKS TO BUILD IN THU- FRI, ENOUGH TO RELAX THE
PRESSURE TO SOME EXTENT WITH MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
(THOUGH WINDS STAY ELEVATED AT 10-20KT). ONSHORE NORTHEAST WINDS
MAY POTENTIALLY INCREASE AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
RIP CURRENTS: A HIGH RISK IS EXPECTED FOR VA BEACH AND THE NC
OBX TODAY, WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR NORTHERN BEACHES. ALL AREA
BEACHES WILL HAVE A HIGH RISK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH SEAS OFFSHORE WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING WATER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW TIDE CYCLES.
NO TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TODAY, THOUGH A FEW SITES MAY GET
INTO ACTION STAGE BY THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR, WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT AT REACHING INTO MINOR FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THAT STARTS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER BAY, AND SE
VA/NE NC ZONES ALONG THE OCEAN (AND OCCURS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN FARTHER UP THE JAMES RIVER. STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO ISSUE
ANY COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES SO WILL HOLD OFF ONE MORE CYCLE TO
SEE HOW WATER LEVELS REACT TODAY, BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE SUBSEQUENT
HIGH TIDES TUE NIGHT AND WED WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE A BIT
HIGHER SO AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR
THESE ZONES, LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FARTHER NORTH, DEPARTURES
WILL TAKE LONGER TO INCREASE, BUT ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY RISE
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING MINOR FLOODING BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ANYTHING MORE THAN
PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED LOW- END MODERATE FLOODING LATE
TUESDAY/WED IN THE LOWER BAY/LOWER JAMES AND VA BEACH TO NC OBX,
SO COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. WATER
LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED WITH PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, THOUGH DEPARTURES LIKELY DROP OFF A BIT BY
THURSDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631-
638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632>634-
650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ636-
637.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/AC
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/AC
LONG TERM...AJZ/AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...LKB/SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
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