262
FXUS61 KAKQ 082333
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
733 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT CONDITIONS INLAND AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER
THIS WEEK BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 225 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MOSTLY CLEAR AND PLEASANT INLAND TONIGHT, PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND BREEZY AT THE COAST.
1026MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING
ALONG A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. THIS IS RESULTING IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WITH A NE WIND OF 15-20 MPH GUSTING
TO ~25 MPH. SUNNY INLAND AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE
COAST. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN VICINITY
OF THE LOWER CHES. BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SHIFTS TOWARD ATLANTIC
CANADA TUESDAY. CLEAR INLAND TONIGHT AND PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE
COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
INLAND, WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND WIND, AND CLOUD COVER POTENTIALLY THICKENING IN THE
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND MID/UPPER 70S
INLAND. SOME CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST ALONG WITH A
BREEZY NE WIND.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 225 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- AUTUMNAL WEATHER REMAINS IN THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S AND DRIER AIR MOVING BACK IN.
- LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
THE INVERTED TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TOWARD THE COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND A CLOSED AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS
SOMEWHERE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST.
CLOUDS BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE E TUESDAY NIGHT AND
MUCH OF THE FA WILL BE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY OR OVERCAST SKIES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS FAVORABLE UPPER JET FORCING MOVES OVERHEAD.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLY
CONDITIONS FOR AREAS E OF I-95 TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOW
MUCH RAIN AND HOW FAR WEST IT GOES WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THAT
SFC LOW FORMS AND HOW CLOSE TO THE SHORE IT STAYS. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH MORE CLOUD COVER,
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. THE COASTAL
TROUGH/WEAK SURFACE LOW SHOULD FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY, LEADING TO PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-LOW 80S, AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S TO
MID 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 225 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY, MOSTLY SUNNY, AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-AROUND 80
THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE RATHER PLEASANT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS OVER THE EAST COAST AND THE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N STRENGTHENS, KICKING THE COASTAL
TROUGH FURTHER OFFSHORE. HIGHS PRESSURE AND THE UL THEN REMAIN
IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PERIOD OVERALL LOOKS VERY
PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH DAY
THURS-SUN. THIS WILL BE A DRY PERIOD AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S AND NO CHANCES FOR RAIN. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S-LOW 60S.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 730 PM EDT MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED N OF THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH A
COLD FRONT LINGERING WELL OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL BUT
SOME SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIGS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS THE SE
TERMINALS (PRIMARILY ORF AND VICINITY). NE WINDS GENERALLY 5-10
KT FOR THE INLAND TERMINALS TONIGHT BUT REMAINING 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KT FOR ORF AND ECG. GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWERING CIGS
(MVFR) SPREADING SLOWLY INLAND FROM THE COAST TUESDAY. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS AS WELL LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE
IN SPECIFICS IS LOW.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BRING SOME MVFR
CIGS AND A CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY AND VFR FARTHER INLAND, AND
THEN DRY AND VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 325 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY,
LOWER JAMES RIVER, COASTAL WATERS, AND CURRITUCK SOUND INTO
WED (AND FOR THE UPPER JAMES/YORK THROUGH TUESDAY). SEAS ALSO
BUILD CONSIDERABLY TO 6-9 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE
TONIGHT/TUESDAY.
- HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE NW THU-FRI, ALLOWING FOR
PROBABLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, THOUGH WINDS/WAVES REMAIN
ELEVATED. ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL SCAS COULD DEVELOP NEXT
WEEKEND.
NE WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED TO 15-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST
OF THE WATERS, THOUGH SPEEDS ARE LOCALLY 10-15 KT IN THE UPPER
BAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH ALONG
THE GULF STREAM FROM NORTHERN FL TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST, WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES (TODAY)
BUILDING TO NEW ENGLAND (TUESDAY), WHICH WILL ACT TO
PROGRESSIVELY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS. SEAS ARE 5-7 FT, HIGHEST S, WITH WAVES IN THE BAY 2-4
FT.
NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BAY AND
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25-30 KT
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE CURRENT FORECAST
DEPICTS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 15-25 KT WINDS (20-25 KT ON THE
COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER BAY) FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED, WITH
INTERMITTENT GUSTS OF 30-35 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS (ESPECIALLY S OF CAPE CHARLES). ANOTHER THING TO MONITOR
FOR WILL BE A POTENTIAL WEAK/CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COASTAL TROUGH LATER TUESDAY. SOME OF
THE NEAR-TERM/HI-RES GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN DEPICTING A BAND OF
HIGHER WINDS (25-30 KT) NUDGING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS DURING
THIS TIME. WHILE THIS WOULD YIELD GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT,
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY RATHER LOW SO HAVE CAPPED MENTION OF
GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE FORECAST AND HEADLINES. NONETHELESS,
SHOULD NOTE THAT LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR >34 KT WIND GUSTS DID
INCREASE TO AROUND 20%. WE WILL WATCH THIS CLOSELY SHOULD ANY
UPGRADES BE REQUIRED. REGARDING THOSE HEADLINES, SCAS ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH WED AFTN FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS FOR THESE
WINDS. THE SCAS FOR THE UPPER RIVERS (MINUS THE RAPPAHANNOCK)
HAVE ALSO BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-8 FT S (AND 5-6 FT N) LATER TODAY/TONIGHT,
INCREASING TO 6-8 FT TUESDAY EVERYWHERE, THOUGH THESE PEAK
VALUES COULD BE HIGHER (TO 9-10 FT) IN OUR SOUTHERN OCEAN ZONES
BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY DUE TO SEAS GREATER THAN 5 FT. THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OFF TO OUR W LOOKS TO BUILD IN THU- FRI, ENOUGH TO
RELAX THE PRESSURE TO SOME EXTENT WITH MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED (THOUGH WINDS STAY ELEVATED AT 10-20KT). ONSHORE
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY POTENTIALLY INCREASE AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND
WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
RIP CURRENTS: A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT ALL
BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN POTENTIALLY EASING SOME
THURSDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 325 PM EDT MONDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH SEAS OFFSHORE WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING WATER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW TIDE CYCLES.
NO TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TODAY, THOUGH A FEW SITES MAY GET
INTO ACTION OR LOW-END MINOR LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. ISSUED A MARGINAL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR VA BEACH,
NORFOLK, AND CHESAPEAKE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF REACHING
MINOR TONIGHT WOULD BE NEAR SEWELL'S POINT. THERE REMAINS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT IN MINOR FLOODING FOR A BROADER AREA WITH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE THAT STARTS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER BAY,
AND SE VA/NE NC ZONES ALONG THE OCEAN (OCCURING A LITTLE LATER
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN FARTHER UP THE JAMES RIVER. IN THIS
RESPECT, HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LATE
TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE IN THE LOWER BAY
(INCLUDING ALONG THE JAMES AND YORK RIVERS) AND ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF THE OBX FROM SRN VA BEACH DOWN TO DUCK.
FARTHER NORTH, DEPARTURES WILL TAKE LONGER TO INCREASE, BUT ARE
FORECAST TO SLOWLY RISE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING MINOR
FLOODING BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THERE DOES NOT LOOK
TO BE ANYTHING MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED LOW- END
MODERATE FLOODING LATE TUESDAY/WED IN THE LOWER BAY/LOWER JAMES
AND VA BEACH TO NC OBX, SO COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED. WATER LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED WITH PROLONGED
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THOUGH DEPARTURES
LIKELY DROP OFF A BIT BY THURSDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
VAZ089-090-093-096-523-524.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ095-097-
098-525.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
VAZ100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-631-
638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632>634-
650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ636-637.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/AC
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/AC
LONG TERM...AJZ/AC
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...LKB/SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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