240
FXUS61 KAKQ 090738
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
338 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS A TROUGH LINGERS OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS, KEEPING BREEZY
CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATER THIS WEEK BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, TRENDING CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT E
OF I-95. REMAINING BREEZY/WINDY NEAR THE COAST.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (~1029
MB), CENTERED ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, RIDGING SW INTO THE INTERIOR MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE,
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT OFFSHORE. THE FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE SW WITH A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT REMAINS BREEZY ALONG THE
COAST WITH A NE WIND OF 15-20 MPH GUSTING TO ~25 MPH, WITH WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WELL INLAND. HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE SE US COAST, BUT LOWER CLOUDS ARE STILL
CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINA COAST S OF THE LOCAL AREA.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND, WITH SOME AREAS AS COOL AS THE MID-UPPER 40S TO THE W/NW
OF RICHMOND. CLOSER TO THE COAST, THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS KEPT
READINGS MUCH WARMER, GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING, AND
GRADUALLY SHIFTS TOWARD ATLANTIC CANADA THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.
THE DAY WILL START OF MOSTLY SUNNY (EXCEPT PARTLY CLOUDY NEAR
THE COAST IN SE VA/NE NC), THEN TRENDING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY BY THE
AFTN FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN ZONES AS THE SFC TROUGH
OFFSHORE RETROGRADES CLOSER TO THE COAST. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY
TO DOWNRIGHT WINDY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30 MPH, AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY FARTHER INLAND WITH GUSTS TO ~20
MPH. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE STAYS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTN, BUT
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF AN INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
LATER THIS AFTN FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST (WILL
HAVE 15-25% POPS AFTER ~3PM). HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
AVERAGE IN THE LOW-MID 70S NEAR THE COAST, WITH MID/UPPER 70S
INLAND.
TONIGHT, AS THE SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO GET CLOSER, EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, POSSIBLY AS FAR
WEST AS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. PRETTY MUCH ALL AVAILABLE CAM
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FARTHER INLAND WITH THE MOISTURE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. WHILE HEAVY RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED, DID
INCREASE POPS A LITTLE, AND DRAGGED SLIGHT CHC POPS TO A LITTLE
W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR (STILL KEEPING THE PIEDMONT DRY). LOWS
WILL BE WARMER WITH THE CLOUDS, RANGING FROM THE LOW-MID 50S
ACROSS THE FAR W, WITH MAINLY 60S ALONG AND E OF I-95.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A LOW END CHC FOR SHOWERS ALONG
AND E OF I-95 WEDNESDAY.
- DRY AND TRENDING WARMER FOR THURSDAY (BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL).
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL LINGER ON WEDNESDAY, AND MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS A CLOSED AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOMEWHERE OFF
THE NC OR SOUTHERN VA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA, AND RIDGING DOWN ALONG OR TO THE LEE OF
THE APPALACHIANS. MOST OF THE FA WILL BE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY OR
OVERCAST SKIES WEDNESDAY AS FAVORABLE UPPER JET FORCING MOVES
OVERHEAD. LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR AREAS ALONG AND E OF I-95 WEDNESDAY. HOW MUCH RAIN AND HOW
FAR WEST IT GOES WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THAT SFC LOW FORMS AND HOW
CLOSE TO THE SHORE IT STAYS (WHICH HAS TRENDED A BIT CLOSER TO
THE COAST). HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL MAINLY BE FROM 70-75, BUT COULD
BE AS COOL AS THE 60S IN SOME AREAS WITH SOME CAD LIKELY. THE
COASTAL TROUGH/WEAK SURFACE LOW SHOULD FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM
THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY, LEADING TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F ON THURSDAY 80S,
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. MOSTLY CLEAR THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 225 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY, MOSTLY SUNNY, AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-AROUND 80
THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE RATHER PLEASANT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS OVER THE EAST COAST AND THE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N STRENGTHENS, KICKING THE COASTAL
TROUGH FURTHER OFFSHORE. HIGHS PRESSURE AND THE UL THEN REMAIN
IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PERIOD OVERALL LOOKS VERY
PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH DAY
THURS-SUN. THIS WILL BE A DRY PERIOD AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S AND NO CHANCES FOR RAIN. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S-LOW 60S.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NE OF THE REGION WITH A TROUGH
OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO BRING STRONG NE WINDS TO COASTAL TERMINALS
WITH GUSTS TO ~25 KT TODAY AT ORF/ECG, AND 20-25 KT AT SBY/PHF.
AS THE OFFSHORE TROUGH GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA LATER TODAY,
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE, WITH LOWERING CIGS (MVFR) SPREADING
SLOWLY INLAND FROM THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING, AND POTENTIALLY
TO INLAND AREAS AS FAR W AS RIC LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS AS WELL LATE IN THE PERIOD
BUT CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS IS LOW. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP MAINLY MVFR CIGS (POSSIBLY DROPPING DOWN
TO IFR TONIGHT) AND A CHC OF SHOWERS E OF I-95.
OUTLOOK: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WED WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE, WITH LOW CIGS POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY
WITH DRY WX AND VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LOCAL
WATERS.
- SEAS BUILD TO 6-9 FT TODAY WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL
AREA BEACHES.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SCAS IS LIKELY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A ~1029 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A COASTAL FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG IT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NE WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES E THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY MOVING NNE ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. AS SUCH, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH NE WINDS AVERAGING 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT
CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING, GRADUALLY BECOMING N AND
DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TONIGHT THROUGH
WED EVENING. AS SUCH, SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS
TODAY WITH SCAS ENDING AT 6 AM WED FOR THE UPPER RIVERS, 4 PM
WED FOR THE UPPER CHES BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND CURRITUCK
SOUND, 7 PM WED FOR THE MIDDLE BAY, 10 PM WED FOR THE LOWER BAY,
4 AM THU FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY (DUE TO ELEVATED WAVES), AND
6 AM THU FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL NOTE THAT SCAS FOR THE S
COASTAL WATERS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THU IF SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 35 KT
ARE NOT EXPECTED, A FEW GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WIND PROBS FOR 34 KT
GUSTS WERE ONLY 35-40 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS. AS SUCH, HAVE
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME WITH AN SMW
POSSIBLE IF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 34 KT GUSTS DEVELOPS.
SEAS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE 4-6 FT ACROSS THE N COASTAL WATERS AND
6-9 FT ACROSS THE S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILD TO 7-9 FT ACROSS ALL
OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TONIGHT INTO THU. WILL NOTE THAT IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS TO BE HIGHER (UP TO 9-10 FT) ACROSS
THE NC COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH NEARSHORE WAVES UP TO AROUND 8 FT.
AS SUCH, WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS TODAY TO SEE IF A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH GENERALLY SUB 8 FT
SEAS ALONG THE BEACHES. SEAS OF 4-5 FT MAY LINGER ACROSS NE NC
THROUGH THU, HOWEVER, WILL KEEP THE CURRENT END TIME OF THE SCAS FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS AT 6 AM THU FOR NOW ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS.
THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR W LOOKS TO BUILD IN THU,
ENOUGH TO RELAX THE PRESSURE TO SOME EXTENT WITH MAINLY SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED (THOUGH WINDS STAY ELEVATED AT 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT). ONSHORE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN FRI INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN ADDITIONAL SCAS LIKELY NEEDED, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE LOWER CHES BAY AND S COASTAL WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT ALL BEACHES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY EASING SOME BY THURSDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 325 PM EDT MONDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH SEAS OFFSHORE WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING WATER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW TIDE CYCLES.
NO TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TODAY, THOUGH A FEW SITES MAY GET
INTO ACTION OR LOW-END MINOR LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. ISSUED A MARGINAL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR VA BEACH,
NORFOLK, AND CHESAPEAKE TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF REACHING
MINOR TONIGHT WOULD BE NEAR SEWELL'S POINT. THERE REMAINS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT IN MINOR FLOODING FOR A BROADER AREA WITH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE THAT STARTS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER BAY,
AND SE VA/NE NC ZONES ALONG THE OCEAN (OCCURING A LITTLE LATER
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN FARTHER UP THE JAMES RIVER. IN THIS
RESPECT, HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LATE
TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE IN THE LOWER BAY
(INCLUDING ALONG THE JAMES AND YORK RIVERS) AND ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF THE OBX FROM SRN VA BEACH DOWN TO DUCK.
FARTHER NORTH, DEPARTURES WILL TAKE LONGER TO INCREASE, BUT ARE
FORECAST TO SLOWLY RISE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING MINOR
FLOODING BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THERE DOES NOT LOOK
TO BE ANYTHING MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED LOW- END
MODERATE FLOODING LATE TUESDAY/WED IN THE LOWER BAY/LOWER JAMES
AND VA BEACH TO NC OBX, SO COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED. WATER LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED WITH PROLONGED
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THOUGH DEPARTURES
LIKELY DROP OFF A BIT BY THURSDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ082>084-089-090-093-096-518-520-523-
524.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ095-097-098-525.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-633-
638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/AC
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...LKB/RHR
MARINE...RMM/SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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