527
FXUS61 KAKQ 091124
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
724 AM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS A TROUGH LINGERS OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS, KEEPING BREEZY
CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATER THIS WEEK BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, TRENDING CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT E
OF I-95. REMAINING BREEZY/WINDY NEAR THE COAST.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (~1029
MB), CENTERED ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, RIDGING SW INTO THE INTERIOR MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE,
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT OFFSHORE. THE FLOW ALOFT IS FROM THE SW WITH A
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT REMAINS BREEZY ALONG
THE COAST WITH A NE WIND OF 15-20 MPH GUSTING TO ~25 MPH, WITH
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WELL INLAND. HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE SE US COAST, BUT LOWER CLOUDS ARE STILL
CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINA COAST S OF THE LOCAL AREA.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND, WITH SOME AREAS AS COOL AS THE MID-UPPER 40S TO THE W/NW
OF RICHMOND. CLOSER TO THE COAST, THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS KEPT
READINGS MUCH WARMER, GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING, AND
GRADUALLY SHIFTS TOWARD ATLANTIC CANADA THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.
THE DAY WILL START OF MOSTLY SUNNY (EXCEPT PARTLY CLOUDY NEAR
THE COAST IN SE VA/NE NC), THEN TRENDING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY BY THE
AFTN FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN ZONES AS THE SFC TROUGH
OFFSHORE RETROGRADES CLOSER TO THE COAST. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY
TO DOWNRIGHT WINDY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30 MPH, AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY FARTHER INLAND WITH GUSTS TO ~20
MPH. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE STAYS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTN, BUT
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF AN INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
LATER THIS AFTN FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST (WILL
HAVE 15-25% POPS AFTER ~3PM). HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
AVERAGE IN THE LOW-MID 70S NEAR THE COAST, WITH MID/UPPER 70S
INLAND.
TONIGHT, AS THE SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO GET CLOSER, EXPECT
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, POSSIBLY AS FAR
WEST AS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. PRETTY MUCH ALL AVAILABLE CAM
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FARTHER INLAND WITH THE MOISTURE TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. WHILE HEAVY RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED, DID
INCREASE POPS A LITTLE, AND DRAGGED SLIGHT CHC POPS TO A LITTLE
W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR (STILL KEEPING THE PIEDMONT DRY). LOWS
WILL BE WARMER WITH THE CLOUDS, RANGING FROM THE LOW-MID 50S
ACROSS THE FAR W, WITH MAINLY 60S ALONG AND E OF I-95.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A LOW END CHC FOR SHOWERS ALONG
AND E OF I-95 WEDNESDAY.
- DRY AND TRENDING WARMER FOR THURSDAY (BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL).
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL LINGER ON WEDNESDAY, AND MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS A CLOSED AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOMEWHERE OFF
THE NC OR SOUTHERN VA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA, AND RIDGING DOWN ALONG OR TO THE LEE OF
THE APPALACHIANS. MOST OF THE FA WILL BE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY OR
OVERCAST SKIES WEDNESDAY AS FAVORABLE UPPER JET FORCING MOVES
OVERHEAD. LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR AREAS ALONG AND E OF I-95 WEDNESDAY. HOW MUCH RAIN AND HOW
FAR WEST IT GOES WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THAT SFC LOW FORMS AND HOW
CLOSE TO THE SHORE IT STAYS (WHICH HAS TRENDED A BIT CLOSER TO
THE COAST). HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL MAINLY BE FROM 70-75, BUT COULD
BE AS COOL AS THE 60S IN SOME AREAS WITH SOME CAD LIKELY. THE
COASTAL TROUGH/WEAK SURFACE LOW SHOULD FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM
THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY, LEADING TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 F ON THURSDAY, AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. IT WILL STAY A BIT BREEZY ON
THU NEAR THE COAST AND THE SKY WILL AVERAGE OUT PARTLY SUNNY FOR
MOST AREAS. MOSTLY CLEAR THU NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY, PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY, WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE RATHER PLEASANT
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS OVER THE EAST COAST AND THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N STRENGTHENS, KICKING THE COASTAL TROUGH
FURTHER OFFSHORE. HIGHS PRESSURE AND THE UL THEN REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PERIOD OVERALL LOOKS PLEASANT
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EACH DAY FRI-MON. THE
CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS WILL BE A DRY PERIOD WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S AND NO CHANCES FOR RAIN, ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DO DIFFER
AS TO HOW CLOSE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BE LOCATED, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW END RAIN CHANCE
NEAR THE COAST. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S-LOW 60S.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 715 AM EDT TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NE OF THE REGION WITH A TROUGH
OFFSHORE THAT CONTINUES TO BRING STRONG NE WINDS TO COASTAL
TERMINALS WITH GUSTS TO ~25 KT TODAY AT ORF/ECG, AND 20-25 KT AT
SBY/PHF. AS THE OFFSHORE TROUGH GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA LATER
TODAY, EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE, WITH LOWERING CIGS (MVFR)
SPREADING TO THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING, AND POTENTIALLY TO
INLAND AREAS AS FAR W AS RIC LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS AS WELL LATE IN THE PERIOD, AND HAVE
INCLUDED THIS AS WELL AS THE MENTION OF DZ AND BR FOR ALL BUT
RIC LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED.
OUTLOOK: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WED WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE, WITH LOW CIGS POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY
WITH DRY WX AND VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LOCAL WATERS.
- SEAS BUILD TO 6-9 FT TODAY WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
ALL AREA BEACHES.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SCAS IS LIKELY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A ~1029 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A COASTAL FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG IT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NE WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES E THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY MOVING NNE ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. AS SUCH, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH NE WINDS AVERAGING 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT
CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING, GRADUALLY BECOMING N AND
DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TONIGHT THROUGH
WED EVENING. AS SUCH, SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS
TODAY WITH SCAS ENDING AT 6 AM WED FOR THE UPPER RIVERS, 4 PM
WED FOR THE UPPER CHES BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND CURRITUCK
SOUND, 7 PM WED FOR THE MIDDLE BAY, 10 PM WED FOR THE LOWER BAY,
4 AM THU FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY (DUE TO ELEVATED WAVES), AND
6 AM THU FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL NOTE THAT SCAS FOR THE S
COASTAL WATERS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THU IF SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 35 KT
ARE NOT EXPECTED, A FEW GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WIND PROBS FOR 34 KT
GUSTS WERE ONLY 35-40 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS. AS SUCH, HAVE
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME WITH AN SMW
POSSIBLE IF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 34 KT GUSTS DEVELOPS.
SEAS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE 4-6 FT ACROSS THE N COASTAL WATERS AND
6-9 FT ACROSS THE S COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILD TO 7-9 FT ACROSS ALL
OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TONIGHT INTO THU. WILL NOTE THAT IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS TO BE HIGHER (UP TO 9-10 FT) ACROSS
THE NC COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH NEARSHORE WAVES UP TO AROUND 8 FT.
AS SUCH, WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS TODAY TO SEE IF A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH GENERALLY SUB 8 FT
SEAS ALONG THE BEACHES. SEAS OF 4-5 FT MAY LINGER ACROSS NE NC
THROUGH THU, HOWEVER, WILL KEEP THE CURRENT END TIME OF THE SCAS FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS AT 6 AM THU FOR NOW ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS.
THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR W LOOKS TO BUILD IN THU,
ENOUGH TO RELAX THE PRESSURE TO SOME EXTENT WITH MAINLY SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED (THOUGH WINDS STAY ELEVATED AT 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT). ONSHORE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN FRI INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN ADDITIONAL SCAS LIKELY NEEDED, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE LOWER CHES BAY AND S COASTAL WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT ALL BEACHES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY EASING SOME BY THURSDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 440 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH SEAS OFFSHORE WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING WATER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL TIDE
CYCLES. WIDESPREAD NUISANCE TO MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NE NC, LOCATIONS ALONG THE LOWER CHES BAY, AND AREAS ALONG THE
TIDAL RAPPAHANNOCK, YORK, AND JAMES RIVERS WITH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES BEGINNING THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE. AS SUCH, HAVE
EXPANDED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ACROSS THESE AREAS AND HAVE
EXTENDED THEM THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF THE OBX FROM SRN VA BEACH DOWN TO DUCK WHERE
ONLY THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. FARTHER NORTH, DEPARTURES WILL TAKE LONGER TO INCREASE,
BUT ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY RISE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING
MINOR FLOODING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, HAVE OPTED TO
HOLD OFF AN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME FOR THE UPPER
CHES BAY AS WELL AS THE MD BEACHES. WATER LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED
WITH PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THOUGH
DEPARTURES LIKELY DROP OFF A BIT BY THURSDAY. WILL NOTE THAT
ADDITIONAL NUISANCE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER THAN FOR TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ076-078-085-086-521-522.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ082>084-
089-090-093-096-518-520-523-524.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ095-097-
098-525.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-633-
638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656-658.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...LKB/RHR
MARINE...RMM/SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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