635
FXUS61 KAKQ 091929
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
329 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS A TROUGH LINGERS OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS, KEEPING BREEZY
CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATER THIS WEEK BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, TRENDING CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 315 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED AREAS OF CLOUDS ALONG
AND WEST OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SE US COAST. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE, NORTH OF THE AREA CENTERED NEAR EASTERN MAINE,
STRETCHING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD A STRONG NE FLOW HAS DEVELOPED.
THE COMBINATION OF THE STALLED FRONT AND NE FLOW HAS LED TO AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND THESE CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD MORE
INLAND AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. SO FAR THE
RAIN HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NAM12 CONTINUES
TO APPEAR TO WRAP THE MOISTURE WELL TO FAR INLAND AND WITHOUT A
STRONGER TROUGH ALOFT, DON'T THINK THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR THAT
TYPE OF SYSTEM. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND HRRR TO KEEP
THE RAIN ALONG THE COAST. SO RAISED THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO ABOUT
60% ALONG THE COAST AND HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE BACK TO THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THINK THE PCPN WILL BE LIGHT OVERALL, BUT COULD BE
PERSISTENT (LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE) FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL
EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE 0.50 OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS. SOME HIGH
RES MODELS TRY TO SHOW SOME MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS, BUT WITHOUT
CONVECTION, HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING THOSE TOTALS BEING REALIZED.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S WEST TO UPPER 60S EAST WITH THE CLOUDS IN PLACE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE WEAK LOW ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NE AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THE NE FLOW CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH A
TURN MORE NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND ALONG THE COAST MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND TRENDING WARMER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER FROM NEW ENGLAND
TO THE GULF COAST THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
DRY WEATHER AND WITH THE RETURN OF MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH READINGS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THURSDAY TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY, PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY, WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE RATHER PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS, REMAINING IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS
BEGINNING TO ADVERTISE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE TIMING LOOKS LIKE MONDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE, NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THE
BACKDOOR FRONT.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NE OF THE REGION WITH A TROUGH OFFSHORE
THAT CONTINUES TO BRING STRONG NE WINDS TO COASTAL TERMINALS WITH
GUSTS TO ~25 KT TODAY AT ORF/ECG, AND 20-25 KT AT SBY/PHF. CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND AREAS AS FAR W AS FVX WITH LOWER TO MVFR
LEVELS ALONG THE COAST. AS A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT AND SLIDES NORTHWARD TONIGHT, EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO
DROP TO IFR LEVELS WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE FOR
ECG/ORF/PHF/SBY. WITHOUT A STRONG UPPER TROUGH TO PULL THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA FARTHER WEST, THINK RIC WILL REMAIN MVFR.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PULL NE AWAY FROM THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE NE FLOW. BUT IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME FOR THE CLOUDS TO ABATE AND CEILING TO LIFT. DO THINK BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY, BUT WILL LIKELY
STILL BE MVFR LEVELS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST.
OUTLOOK: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE, IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WITH DRY WX AND
VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-KEY MESSAGES BRIEF GALES FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
-LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EVENT CONTINUES INTO WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY
N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING IN
BETWEEN SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A COASTAL
TROUGH/LOW JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MOVES WEST SLIGHTLY. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT ESPECIALLY IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WILL NOT ISSUE A GALE WARNING
AS ANY GUSTS OF 34 KT WILL BE BRIEF (LESS THAN A FEW HOURS).
WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COASTAL
TROUGH/LOW SHIFTS OFFSHORE. IN ADDITION, THE WINDS WILL DECREASE
SOMEWHAT BUT REMAIN AT 15 TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO
10 TO 20 KT BY THU AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY S AND THE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. BY FRIDAY, THERE ARE HINTS FROM GUIDANCE
THAT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WHICH
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN TO 15 TO 25 KT WITH ANOTHER SCA
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER CHES BAY AND S COASTAL WATERS.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH 6 TO 9 FEET OVER THE
OCEAN AND 3 TO 6 FEET IN THE BAY. NO HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT NEARSHORE
BUOYS SUGGEST WAVE HEIGHT JUST UNDER THE 8 FT CRITERIA. SEAS/WAVES
SUBSIDE WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY, BUT THEN LIKELY BUILD AGAIN BY
FRIDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT ALL BEACHES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY EASING SOME BY THURSDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH SEAS OFFSHORE WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED WATER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL TIDE CYCLES.
WIDESPREAD NUISANCE TO MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED ACROSS NE NC,
LOCATIONS ALONG THE LOWER CHES BAY, AND AREAS ALONG THE TIDAL
RAPPAHANNOCK, YORK, AND JAMES RIVERS WITH THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE
CYCLES BEGINNING THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE. IN ADDITION, THIS MINOR FLOODING
HAS SPREAD NORTHWARD TO LEWISETTA. AS SUCH, HAVE EXPANDED COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES TO AREAS ALONG NORTHUMBERLAND AND WESTMORELAND. IN
ADDITION, WE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
VAB INTO THE NORTHERN OBX UNTIL TOMORROW DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW THERE KEEPING TIDES ELEVATED. FARTHER NORTH, DEPARTURES WILL
TAKE LONGER TO INCREASE, BUT ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY RISE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEEING MINOR FLOODING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.
AS SUCH, HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF AN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME FOR THE UPPER CHES BAY AS WELL AS THE MD BEACHES. WATER LEVELS
REMAIN ELEVATED WITH PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, THOUGH DEPARTURES LIKELY DROP OFF A BIT BY THURSDAY. WILL NOTE
THAT ADDITIONAL NUISANCE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THAN FOR TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ095-097-
098-525.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ075>078-
085-086-521-522.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ082>084-
089-090-093-096-100-518-520-523-524.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630-633-
638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656-658.
SYNOPSIS...ESS/LKB
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...ESS/LKB
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...MRD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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