493
FXUS61 KAKQ 100742
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
342 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER ATLANTIC CANADA TODAY,
AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT, BRINGING COOL AND
DAMP WEATHER TO THE REGION. THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO QUEBEC LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AND PUSHES
OFF TO ATLANTIC CANADA ON SATURDAY, GRADUALLY BRINGING DRIER
AIR INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
- CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE LINGER OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY, MAINLY SOUTH, WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NW.
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES ~1030 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER ATLANTIC CANADA, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
SW DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE APPALACHIANS. LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE OF NC, WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE NC AND SOUTHERN VA COAST.
SCATTERED, MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE. MOST OF THE PCPN HAS BEEN
LIGHT OVERALL AND THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE HEAVY RAIN CONCERN
TODAY, BUT A FEW PLACES IN SE VA DID RECORD IN EXCESS OF 0.25"
OVER THE PAST FEW HRS, AND AN AREA OF SHOWERS OF MODERATE
INTENSITY IS MAKING ITS WAY WEST AND APPROACHING RIC METRO.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE
FAR NW TO AROUND 70F IN THE SE. PWAT VALUES ARE BEING ANALYZED
AROUND 1.80" AT THE COAST, TAPERED TO AROUND 1.00" IN THE
PIEDMONT.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE AREA-WIDE. CLOUDS HAVE MADE IT ALL
THE WAY TO FVX AND LKU SO ALL AREAS SHOULD BE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST ARE RATHER LOW
(15-20%), BUT WILL RANGE FROM 30-60% ELSEWHERE, GENERALLY
HIGHEST AT THE COAST. WHILE THE SFC WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY,
WINDS IN THE 925-700MB LAYER WILL BE MORE FROM THE NE, SO THERE
IS LITTLE CHC FOR EVEN PARTIAL CLEARING LATER THIS AFTN. HAVE
LOWERED HIGHS TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL VA, WITH
70S AT THE COAST AND ACROSS THE FAR WEST (WHERE THE CLOUD BASES
WILL TEND TO BE A BIT HIGHER). THE LATEST CAMS SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS (AND DRIZZLE) TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WILL MAINTAIN 1530%
POPS OVERNIGHT, ENDING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NW WHERE
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THIS WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO
FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THU MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND TRENDING WARMER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER FROM NEW ENGLAND
TO THE GULF COAST THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
DRY WEATHER AND WITH THE RETURN OF MORE SUNSHINE, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH READINGS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THURSDAY TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY, PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY, WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE RATHER PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS, REMAINING IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS
BEGINNING TO ADVERTISE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE TIMING LOOKS LIKE MONDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE, NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THE
BACKDOOR FRONT.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND, WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE THAT CONTINUES TO BRING STRONG NE
WINDS TO COASTAL TERMINALS WITH GUSTS TO ~25 KT THIS EVENING AT
ORF/ECG, AND 20-25 KT AT SBY/PHF. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD
INLAND AREAS AS FAR W AS FVX WITH LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST. AS A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COASTAL
FRONT AND SLIDES NORTHWARD TONIGHT, EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO DROP
TO IFR LEVELS WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE FOR ECG/ORF/PHF/SBY
WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AT RIC. IFR TO MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MVFR.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PULL NE AWAY FROM THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE NE FLOW. BUT IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE CLOUDS TO ABATE AND CEILING TO LIFT.
DO THINK BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY AT
RIC, BUT WILL LIKELY STILL BE AT LOW END MVFR REMAINING ALONG
THE COAST.
OUTLOOK: DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING,
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE,
IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 250 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS TODAY.
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY ACROSS ALL AREA
BEACHES.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SCAS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A ~1029 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED FROM MAINE INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE, A COASTAL FRONT
OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST, AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW
ALONG IT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A CONTINUED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS WITH NE/NNE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30
KT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE
TODAY WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY MOVING NNE ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. AS SUCH, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE, WEAKENING BY TONIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME N
LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND RIVERS, BECOMING N ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS
REMAIN GENERALLY 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT THROUGH TODAY
WITH LOCALLY LOWER WINDS ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS AND THE
CURRITUCK SOUND. AS SUCH, SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS
EVENING FOR THE UPPER RIVERS AND UPPER BAY, 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR
THE MIDDLE BAY, 1 AM THU FOR THE LOWER BAY, 4 AM THU FOR THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY, 4 PM THU FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT, 7 PM THU FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE VA/NC BORDER TO CAPE
CHARLES LIGHT, AND 10 PM THU FOR THE NC COASTAL WATERS. THE SCAS FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS LINGER LONGER THAN OVER THE BAY DUE TO ELEVATED
SEAS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT, BECOMING N 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WILL NOTE THAT SOME CAMS SHOW A BRIEF INCREASE IN
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING INCLUDING ACROSS THE
CURRITUCK SOUND. AS SUCH, SCAS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU INTO FRI WITH
WINDS REMAINING SUB-SCA LEVEL. ANOTHER COASTAL LOW MOVES WELL
OFFSHORE FRI INTO THIS WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME NE 15-
20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS FRI
AND SAT. AS SUCH, ANOTHER ROUND OF SCAS IS POSSIBLE. WILL NOTE THAT
CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED WITH RESPECT TO SCA WINDS WITH WIND PROBS
FOR 18 KT SUSTAINED WINDS ONLY 30% AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY ON SAT.
HOWEVER, IT DOES STILL APPEAR THAT SEAS WILL BECOME ELEVATED TO 4-6
FT FRI INTO THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
WAVES AND SEAS WERE 3-5 FT AND 5-7 FT RESPECTIVELY THIS MORNING.
WAVES SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT BY TONIGHT (PERHAPS REMAINING 3-4 FT AT THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT). SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-6 FT LATER
THIS MORNING, SUBSIDING TO 4-5 FT THU, BEFORE BECOMING ELEVATED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRI INTO THIS WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ACROSS ALL AREA
BEACHES TODAY GIVEN 4-5 FT WAVES, 8 SECOND PERIODS, AND A STRONG
LONGSHORE CURRENT. THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS MODERATE ACROSS ALL AREA
BEACHES ON THU.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 1150 PM EDT TUESDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL LEAD
TO CONTINUED ELEVATED WATER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE
CYCLES. WIDESPREAD NUISANCE TO MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED ACROSS
COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM NE NC TO OCEAN CITY, MD, LOCATIONS ALONG
THE CHES BAY, AND AREAS ALONG THE TIDAL RAPPAHANNOCK, YORK, AND
JAMES RIVERS WITH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HIGH TIDE CYCLES TODAY. AS
SUCH, HAVE EXPANDED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE ALL OF
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CHES BAY, ALL OF THE VA EASTERN
SHORE, AND WORCESTER COUNTY FOR TODAY'S HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
WATER LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED WITH PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THOUGH DEPARTURES LIKELY DROP OFF A
BIT BY THURSDAY. WILL NOTE THAT ADDITIONAL NUISANCE TO MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN FOR TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE NE/N WINDS, PORTIONS OF THE
CURRITUCK SOUND HAVE SEEN WATER LEVELS DROP TO NEAR LOW WATER
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TODAY, WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY LOW WATER ADVISORIES AT
THIS TIME AS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RISE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ095-097-098-525.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ075>078-085-086-521-522.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ082>084-089-090-093-096-518-520-523-524.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630-
635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ631-
638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...ESS/LKB
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...RMM/MRD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page