646
FXUS61 KAKQ 101124
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
724 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER ATLANTIC CANADA TODAY,
AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT, BRINGING COOL AND
DAMP WEATHER TO THE REGION. THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO QUEBEC LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AND PUSHES
OFF TO ATLANTIC CANADA ON SATURDAY, GRADUALLY BRINGING DRIER
AIR INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
- CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE LINGER OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY, MAINLY SOUTH, WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NW.
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES ~1030 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER ATLANTIC CANADA, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
SW DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE APPALACHIANS. LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE OF NC, WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE NC AND SOUTHERN VA COAST.
SCATTERED, MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE. MOST OF THE PCPN HAS BEEN
LIGHT OVERALL AND THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE HEAVY RAIN CONCERN
TODAY, BUT A FEW PLACES IN SE VA DID RECORD IN EXCESS OF 0.25"
OVER THE PAST FEW HRS, AND AN AREA OF SHOWERS OF MODERATE
INTENSITY IS MAKING ITS WAY WEST AND APPROACHING RIC METRO.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE
FAR NW TO AROUND 70F IN THE SE. PWAT VALUES ARE BEING ANALYZED
AROUND 1.80" AT THE COAST, TAPERED TO AROUND 1.00" IN THE
PIEDMONT.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE AREA-WIDE. CLOUDS HAVE MADE IT ALL
THE WAY TO FVX AND LKU SO ALL AREAS SHOULD BE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST ARE RATHER LOW
(15-20%), BUT WILL RANGE FROM 30-60% ELSEWHERE, GENERALLY
HIGHEST AT THE COAST. WHILE THE SFC WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY,
WINDS IN THE 925-700MB LAYER WILL BE MORE FROM THE NE, SO THERE
IS LITTLE CHC FOR EVEN PARTIAL CLEARING LATER THIS AFTN. HAVE
LOWERED HIGHS TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL VA, WITH
70S AT THE COAST AND ACROSS THE FAR WEST (WHERE THE CLOUD BASES
WILL TEND TO BE A BIT HIGHER). THE LATEST CAMS SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS (AND DRIZZLE) TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WILL MAINTAIN 1530%
POPS OVERNIGHT, ENDING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NW WHERE
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THIS WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO
FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THU MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MAINLY DRY AND TRENDING WARMER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ON THURSDAY, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO,
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ESE INTO QUEBEC, SLOWLY BRINING DRIER AIR S
INTO THE LOCAL AREA, AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFF TO OUR NE,
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. EXPECT A LOT OF CLOUDS TO LINGER
ACROSS AT LEAST SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING, BUT WE
SHOULD SEE THE RETURN OF MORE SUNSHINE BY AFTN, WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH READINGS IN THE MID
70S TO NEAR 80F (STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE). PARTLY
CLOUDY THU NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S, FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AS THE SFC HIGH ACROSS QUEBEC RIDGES SOUTH
INTO THE REGION. THE NE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
STILL LEAD TO SCT-BKN CUMULUS, BUT OVERALL A NICE DAY IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 80S FOR MOST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 350 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY, PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY, WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE RATHER PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS, REMAINING IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS
BEGINNING TO ADVERTISE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE TIMING LOOKS LIKE MONDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE, NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THE
BACKDOOR FRONT.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 715 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR ALL MAIN TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY, WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR
VSBYS EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS
LATER IN THE AFTN, MAINLY INLAND, THOUGH THIS IS UNCERTAIN. THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PULL NE AWAY FROM THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SINCE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN FROM CANADA, ANY IMPROVEMENT
LATE IN THE DAY WILL PROBABLY BE FOLLOWED BY DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WX AND VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 250 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS TODAY.
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY ACROSS ALL AREA BEACHES.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SCAS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A ~1029 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED FROM MAINE INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE, A COASTAL FRONT
OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST, AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW
ALONG IT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A CONTINUED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS WITH NE/NNE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30
KT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE
TODAY WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY MOVING NNE ALONG THE
COASTAL FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. AS SUCH, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE, WEAKENING BY TONIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME N
LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND RIVERS, BECOMING N ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS
REMAIN GENERALLY 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT THROUGH TODAY
WITH LOCALLY LOWER WINDS ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS AND THE
CURRITUCK SOUND. AS SUCH, SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS
EVENING FOR THE UPPER RIVERS AND UPPER BAY, 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR
THE MIDDLE BAY, 1 AM THU FOR THE LOWER BAY, 4 AM THU FOR THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY, 4 PM THU FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT, 7 PM THU FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE VA/NC BORDER TO CAPE
CHARLES LIGHT, AND 10 PM THU FOR THE NC COASTAL WATERS. THE SCAS FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS LINGER LONGER THAN OVER THE BAY DUE TO ELEVATED
SEAS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT, BECOMING N 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WILL NOTE THAT SOME CAMS SHOW A BRIEF INCREASE IN
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING INCLUDING ACROSS THE
CURRITUCK SOUND. AS SUCH, SCAS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND
FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU INTO FRI WITH
WINDS REMAINING SUB-SCA LEVEL. ANOTHER COASTAL LOW MOVES WELL
OFFSHORE FRI INTO THIS WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME NE 15-
20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS FRI
AND SAT. AS SUCH, ANOTHER ROUND OF SCAS IS POSSIBLE. WILL NOTE THAT
CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED WITH RESPECT TO SCA WINDS WITH WIND PROBS
FOR 18 KT SUSTAINED WINDS ONLY 30% AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY ON SAT.
HOWEVER, IT DOES STILL APPEAR THAT SEAS WILL BECOME ELEVATED TO 4-6
FT FRI INTO THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
WAVES AND SEAS WERE 3-5 FT AND 5-7 FT RESPECTIVELY THIS MORNING.
WAVES SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT BY TONIGHT (PERHAPS REMAINING 3-4 FT AT THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY UNTIL LATE TONIGHT). SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5-6 FT LATER
THIS MORNING, SUBSIDING TO 4-5 FT THU, BEFORE BECOMING ELEVATED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRI INTO THIS WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ACROSS ALL AREA
BEACHES TODAY GIVEN 4-5 FT WAVES, 8 SECOND PERIODS, AND A STRONG
LONGSHORE CURRENT. THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS MODERATE ACROSS ALL AREA
BEACHES ON THU.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 410 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED ELEVATED WATER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WIDESPREAD NUISANCE TO MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED ACROSS COASTAL
LOCATIONS FROM NE NC TO OCEAN CITY, MD, LOCATIONS ALONG THE CHES
BAY, AND AREAS ALONG THE TIDAL RAPPAHANNOCK, YORK, AND JAMES RIVERS
WITH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HIGH TIDE CYCLES TODAY. AS SUCH, COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
WATER LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED WITH PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, THOUGH DEPARTURES MAY SLOWLY DROP OFF A BIT BY
THURSDAY. WILL NOTE THAT ADDITIONAL NUISANCE TO MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE
FOR MOST COASTAL LOCATIONS, HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT MOST LOCATIONS, HAVE
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES.
INSTEAD, WILL REEVALUATE LATER TODAY TO SEE IF EITHER AN EXTENSION
OR A SEPARATE ROUND OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES IS NEEDED. WILL NOTE
THAT THURSDAY AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE MAY RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE UPPER BAY IN MD.
ADDITIONAL NUISANCE TO MINOR FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY
WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ024-025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ075>078-085-086-521-522.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ082>084-089-090-093-096-518-520-523-524.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ095-097-098-525.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630-
635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ631-
638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...ESS/LKB
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...RMM/MRD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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