617
FXUS61 KAKQ 110118
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
918 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER ATLANTIC CANADA TONIGHT
AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHEAST, BRINGING COOL AND DAMP WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AND
PUSHES OFF TO ATLANTIC CANADA ON SATURDAY, GRADUALLY BRINGING
DRIER AIR INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 918 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, MAINLY
SOUTH.
- CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE THURSDAY, WITH CLOUD COVER
SCATTERING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA, BUT IS STILL
HELPING PRODUCE LIGHT DRIZZLE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
WHICH HAS LED TO A GOOD SETUP FOR A CAD AS SEEN TODAY. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES REMAINS TIGHTENED,
AND WINDS ARE STILL ELEVATED THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED ONLY A FEW DEGREES INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S WHICH NOT FAR OFF OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
MEASURED THIS AFTERNOON. THE THICK CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN
HAS CAUSED THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION TO REMAIN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TODAY, WITH SOME OF OUR CLIMATE SITES POTENTIALLY
SETTING DAILY LOW MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS. THOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS SUBSIDED SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, A FEW LIGHT
AREAS OF DRIZZLE REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ARE AREAS
GENERALLY EAST OF I-95. CLOUD COVER MAY START TO RECEDE IN THE
FAR WESTERN FRINGES OF OUR LOCAL AREA AND GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
PATCHY FOG. THE CONFIDENCE IN ANY FOG DEVELOPING IS LOWER, SO
HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WEST AND MID 60S ACROSS THE EAST.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA TOMORROW AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, BUT DRIER AIR WILL START TO
INFRINGE ON THE MOIST AIRMASS AND DROP RAIN CHANCES BY THE
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
CLOUDS START TO SCATTER AND WE WILL FINALLY SEE THE SUN AGAIN AFTER
MULTIPLE DAYS OF DREARY WEATHER! CLOUDS WILL LINGER LONGER IN THE
SE, BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH SKIES BEGINNING TO
CLEAR, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR JUST
UNDER NORMAL TOMORROW. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE ON DECK FOR
THE DAY AND DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S, LEADING TO A COMFORTABLE
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 310 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH A
WEAK RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER NE CANADA AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT NE FLOW TO
CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE AND WILL LEAD TO SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER
FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY'S
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE IDENTICAL IN NATURE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL USHERING DRIER AIR. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BACK NEAR SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S INLAND
AND LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 310 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
OPTIMAL WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL, WITH HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEING IN THE LOWER
TO POTENTIALLY EVEN MIDDLE 80S IN SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
POTENTIALLY BY LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY THERE IS A POTENTIAL OF
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR ADDITIONAL COOLER WEATHER CONDITIONS. WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 750 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH
INTERMITTENT BREAKS IN THE -DZ AND CIGS BRIEFLY RAISING TO LOW-
END MVFR. THESE LOW CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT, WITH SOME DECREASED VIS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE
OF ANY RAIN DUE TO THE CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AT THE
INLAND TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY
TOMORROW MORNING, FOLLOWED BY FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. TERMINALS IN SE VA AND NE NC WILL SEE DEGRADED
CONDITIONS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON, AND THE TIME OF
CIGS REACHING VFR CRITERIA IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. HAVE KEPT
LOWERED CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY,
THOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY COME UP LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT AT ORF, WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL RELAX TO 5-10 KTS, POTENTIALLY
LESS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WX AND VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 310 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SCAS IS POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS DUE TO BUILDING SEAS.
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TOMORROW AT ALL AREA
BEACHES.
THIS AFTERNOON, ~1027 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR ATLANTIC
CANADA AND EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE, ~1013 MB
LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED OUT OF THE N TO NNE, BUT HAVE DIMINISHED COMPARED TO
EARLIER AND GENERALLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS. SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET (LOCALLY UP TO 7 FEET OUT
20 NM) AND WAVES IN THE BAY 3 TO 4 FEET (UP TO 5 FEET AT THE MOUTH).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE UPPER JAMES,
YORK, AND RAPPAHANNOCK RIVERS. SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS THROUGH THIS EVENING/INTO TONIGHT, AND FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW DUE TO LINGERING 5+ FEET
SEAS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, BECOMING
N 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR SUB-SCA WINDS
AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SEAS. ANOTHER COASTAL LOW MOVES WELL
OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT NOT EXPECTING SCA WINDS AT
THIS TIME WITH LOCAL WIND PROBS CONTINUING TO DECREASE. HOWEVER, IT
DOES STILL APPEAR THAT SEAS WILL BECOME ELEVATED TO 4 TO 6 FEET
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND
AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. HIGH
PRESSURE/BENIGN CONDITIONS RETURN LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ACROSS ALL AREA
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN 4-5 FT WAVES, 8 SECOND PERIODS,
AND A STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENT. A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS ALSO
EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS COMPARED TO TODAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WATER LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED WITH PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, THOUGH DEPARTURES MAY SLOWLY DROP OFF A BIT LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WILL NOTE THAT ADDITIONAL NUISANCE TO MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY FOR THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE FOR
MOST COASTAL LOCATIONS, THUS WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES ~24 HOURS TO ENCOMPASS THIS THREAT. IT SHOULD ALSO
BE NOTED THAT TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
HIGH TIDES, BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL STILL APPROACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGES. FINALLY, ADDED THE BAYSIDE OF THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE TO
THE ADVISORIES, WITH MINOR FLOODING (ESPECIALLY AT BISHOPS HEAD MD)
APPEARING INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW CYCLES.
ADDITIONAL NUISANCE TO MINOR FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY
WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ075>078-
085-086-521-522.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ095-097-
098-525.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ082>084-
089-090-093-096-099-100-518-520-523-524.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630-
631-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...HET/LKB
NEAR TERM...HET/NB
SHORT TERM...HET/LKB
LONG TERM...HET/LKB
AVIATION...HET/NB
MARINE...AJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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