683
FXUS61 KAKQ 111039
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
639 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN LINGER THIS MORNING, WITH
DRIER AIR EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE NEXT
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY, AND PUSHES OFF TO ATLANTIC CANADA ON SATURDAY, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 320 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE LINGER THIS MORNING,
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FINALLY LIFTING FARTHER TO THE NE OF THE LOCAL AREA,
OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED WELL OFF TO OUR NW, NEAR GEORGIAN BAY CANADA, WITH SFC
RIDGING SSE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS FROM THE SW, AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH STILL SITUATED W
OF THE REGION OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. WINDS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
LIGHTER EARLY THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL AREAS, GENERALLY IN THE
5-10 MPH RANGE, WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS INLAND. THE MAIN STORY
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS, MAINLY E OF I-95 BUT INLAND FROM THE COAST. HAVE ADDED
AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH ~8 AM TO INDICATED THAT
DRIZZLE IS LIKELY EVEN IF THE CHC FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS
ONLY 20-40% FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM,
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE LOW-
MID 60S INLAND.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER NE LATER TODAY, AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E-SE TOWARDS QUEBEC BY THIS EVENING. IT
WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO SCATTERED OUT LATER
TODAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND E OF I-95 AND INLAND FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST (GENERALLY WHERE THE RAIN IS MOST PREVALENT
CURRENTLY). WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHC POPS (15-25%) ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SE VA AND INTERIOR NE NC INTO THE AFTN,
WITH IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE ON DECK FOR THE DAY AND DEW
POINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S, LEADING TO A COMFORTABLE
AFTERNOON.ILE AREAS TO THE NW AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD. TEMPERATURE MAY
NOT RISE MUCH THROUGH EARLY AFTN, THEN INCREASE SEVERAL DEGREES
LATE AS MORE SUN DEVELOPS. THE MAV/MET/ECS NUMBERS ARE A BIT
WARMER THAN THE NBM, AND ARE PROBABLY TOO WARM ACROSS AREAS
WHERE CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, HAVE GONE WITH
HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FAR W/NW, WITH MID TO UPPER
70S MOST OTHER PLACES. BY THIS EVENING, THE SKY SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WITH A LIGHT WIND, PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND TO THE W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F, LOCALLY IN THE 60S ALONG
THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY, WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH A
WEAK RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY, MOVING EAST TO ATLANTIC CANADA
BY SATURDAY. THIS IS A SIMILAR LOCATION OF THE SFC HIGH TO WHAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS WEEK, BUT THE DIFFERENCE WILL BE THAT THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL STAY WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SE US COAST
(AND WILL NOT MOVE NORTHWARD). THEREFORE, EXPECT DRY WX TO
PREVAIL BOTH FRI AND SAT, ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F AT THE COAST, AND INTO
THE LOWER 80S INLAND. THE NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SOME MODEST
COOL AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCT-BKN FAIR WX CUMULUS EACH
AFTN, AFTER A MAINLY SUNNY MORNING. LOWS FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT WILL
MOSTLY RANGE THROUGH THE 50S INLAND, WITH 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 350 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK.
THE MODELS GENERALLY KEEP SFC HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
NE CONUS LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES, AND AFTER MONDAY, SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A BIT OF AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SE CONUS
UNDERNEATH ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA (WHICH OFTEN OCCURS WHEN STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
EXPAND THAT FAR N). DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST PER THE
NBM, BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER INVERTED SFC TROUGH
OR CLOSED SFC LOW COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST AND EVENTUALLY
BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES BACK INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY
TUE- WED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE W OF THE BAY AND E OF I-95.
THESE LOW CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL LINGER THROUGH
~12Z, BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR BY LATER MORNING/EARLY AFTN, WITH CLOUDS
BECOMING MORE SCT BY LATE AFTN. WINDS WILL BE NE AT 5-10 KT.
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING, WITH SOME FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY, MAINLY AT INLAND TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY DRY WX AND VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED FRI
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 640 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SCAS IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS DUE TO BUILDING SEAS.
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ACROSS ALL AREA BEACHES.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTED A WEAK SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND. WINDS WERE GENERALLY NNE/N 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT WITH WAVES OF 2-3 FT (EXCEPT 3-4 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY) AND SEAS OF 5-6 FT. THE COASTAL LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE
TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE N. AS SUCH, EXPECT
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING NE 5-10 KT
THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA (10-15 KT ACROSS THE NC COASTAL
WATERS). GIVEN THE DECREASING WINDS, WAVES AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT AND 3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY BY THIS EVENING. AS SUCH,
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING FOR THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY, 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF
CAPE CHARLES LIGHT, 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN CAPE CHARLES LIGHT AND THE VA/NC BORDER, AND 10 PM THIS
EVENING FOR THE NC COASTAL WATERS. WILL NOTE THAT 4-5 FT SEAS
MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS.
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW MOVES WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT
NOT EXPECTING SCA WINDS AT THIS TIME WITH LOCAL WIND PROBS
CONTINUING TO DECREASE. HOWEVER, SOME MODEL GUIDANCE (MAINLY THE
NAM) CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE
NC COASTAL WATERS FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT. AS SUCH, WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS. FOR NOW, HAVE NE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT
ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND MAINLY THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THAT
BEING SAID, IT DOES STILL APPEAR THAT SEAS WILL BECOME ELEVATED TO 4
TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI THROUGH SAT
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCAS POSSIBLE FOR THIS AREA.
ADDITIONALLY, A COASTAL LOW MAY BRING ELEVATED SEAS AND PERHAPS
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS (AND PERHAPS THE CHES BAY) TUE INTO
WED.
RIP CURRENTS: A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ACROSS ALL AREA
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN 4-5 FT WAVES, 8 SECOND PERIODS,
AND A STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENT. A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 255 AM EDT THURSDAY...
WATER LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED GIVEN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THOUGH DEPARTURES MAY SLOWLY DROP
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TIDAL ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO RANGE
BETWEEN 1- 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
NUISANCE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH
TIDES. THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WATER LEVELS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON'S HIGH
TIDE. AS SUCH, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SITES AROUND THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY AND ALONG THE SE VA/NE NC COAST (BAYFORD, OYSTER,
LYNNHAVEN, AND DUCK) MAY BRIEFLY REACH NEAR MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO UPGRADE TO
COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS, WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE TRENDS TODAY IN CASE A SHORT-FUSED COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING IS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE, HAVE EXTENDED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE ALONG THE CHES BAY AND ALONG THE SE VA/NE NC
COAST. HAVE KEPT THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE UPPER JAMES RIVER, MUCH OF THE YORK RIVER, AND WORCESTER
COUNTY GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE WITH THE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE, HOWEVER, NUISANCE FLOODING IS STILL
EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY, HAVE EXPANDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES
TO INCLUDE ALL OF WORCESTER COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCEAN CITY TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE. ADDITIONAL
NUISANCE TO MINOR FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY WITH THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES INTO SATURDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ024-025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ075>078-
083>086-518-520>522.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ082-089-090-093-096-523-524.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ095-097-
098-525.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...HET/LKB
LONG TERM...HET/LKB
AVIATION...LKB/NB
MARINE...RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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