314
FXUS61 KAKQ 111802
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
202 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY, AND PUSHES OFF TO ATLANTIC CANADA ON SATURDAY, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DRY COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER COASTAL
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 155 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING,
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SETTLE IN
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH A COASTAL TROUGH STILL LINGERING
WELL OFFSHORE.
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION IS DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH I-95 BEING THE ROUGH DIVIDING
LINE AT THIS HOUR. TO THE WEST, WE ARE SEEING PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80. TO THE EAST, LOWER CLOUDS LINGER ALONG WITH AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES FURTHER EAST ARE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE LOWER CLOUDS GRADUALLY ERODING AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NE NC
AND SE VA MAY SEE CLOUDS/DRIZZLE CHANCES LINGER INTO THIS
EVENING.
BY TONIGHT, THE SKY SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND
WITH A LIGHT WIND, PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO THE
WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F, LOCALLY IN THE 60S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY, WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH A
WEAK RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY, MOVING EAST TO ATLANTIC CANADA
BY SATURDAY. THIS IS A SIMILAR LOCATION OF THE SFC HIGH TO WHAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS WEEK, BUT THE DIFFERENCE WILL BE THAT THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL STAY WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SE US COAST
(AND WILL NOT MOVE NORTHWARD). THEREFORE, EXPECT DRY WX TO
PREVAIL BOTH FRI AND SAT, ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F AT THE COAST, AND INTO
THE LOWER 80S INLAND. THE NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SOME MODEST
COOL AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCT-BKN FAIR WX CUMULUS EACH
AFTN, AFTER A MAINLY SUNNY MORNING. LOWS FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT WILL
MOSTLY RANGE THROUGH THE 50S INLAND, WITH 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 350 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK.
THE MODELS GENERALLY KEEP SFC HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
NE CONUS LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES, AND AFTER MONDAY, SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A BIT OF AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SE CONUS
UNDERNEATH ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA (WHICH OFTEN OCCURS WHEN STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
EXPAND THAT FAR N). DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST PER THE
NBM, BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER INVERTED SFC TROUGH
OR CLOSED SFC LOW COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST AND EVENTUALLY
BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES BACK INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY
TUE- WED. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 155 PM EDT THURSDAY...
PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SE/E TAF SITES WITH
MAINLY VFR CIGS FURTHER TO THE WEST. THERE ARE STILL SOME
POCKETS OF IFR CIGS, BUT THESE ARE MAINLY AWAY FROM THE TAF
SITES AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION, STILL DEALING WITH LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND DOWN INTO PORTIONS
OF NE NC. ORF HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, WITH LESSER CHANCES AT THE OTHER
SITES. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH CLOUDS BECOMING MORE SCT FROM WEST
TO EAST. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT, WITH SOME FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY, MAINLY AT INLAND TERMINALS.
WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE N TO NE AND RANGE FROM 5 TO 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 640 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SCAS IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS DUE TO BUILDING SEAS.
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ACROSS ALL AREA BEACHES.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTED A WEAK SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE INLAND. WINDS WERE GENERALLY NNE/N 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT WITH WAVES OF 2-3 FT (EXCEPT 3-4 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY) AND SEAS OF 5-6 FT. THE COASTAL LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE
TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE N. AS SUCH, EXPECT
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING NE 5-10 KT
THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA (10-15 KT ACROSS THE NC COASTAL
WATERS). GIVEN THE DECREASING WINDS, WAVES AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT AND 3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY BY THIS EVENING. AS SUCH,
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING FOR THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY, 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF
CAPE CHARLES LIGHT, 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN CAPE CHARLES LIGHT AND THE VA/NC BORDER, AND 10 PM THIS
EVENING FOR THE NC COASTAL WATERS. WILL NOTE THAT 4-5 FT SEAS
MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS.
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW MOVES WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT
NOT EXPECTING SCA WINDS AT THIS TIME WITH LOCAL WIND PROBS
CONTINUING TO DECREASE. HOWEVER, SOME MODEL GUIDANCE (MAINLY THE
NAM) CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE
NC COASTAL WATERS FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT. AS SUCH, WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS. FOR NOW, HAVE NE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT
ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND MAINLY THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THAT
BEING SAID, IT DOES STILL APPEAR THAT SEAS WILL BECOME ELEVATED TO 4
TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI THROUGH SAT
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCAS POSSIBLE FOR THIS AREA.
ADDITIONALLY, A COASTAL LOW MAY BRING ELEVATED SEAS AND PERHAPS
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS (AND PERHAPS THE CHES BAY) TUE INTO
WED.
RIP CURRENTS: A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ACROSS ALL AREA
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN 4-5 FT WAVES, 8 SECOND PERIODS,
AND A STRONG LONGSHORE CURRENT. A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 255 AM EDT THURSDAY...
WATER LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED GIVEN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THOUGH DEPARTURES MAY SLOWLY DROP
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TIDAL ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO RANGE
BETWEEN 1- 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
NUISANCE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH
TIDES. THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WATER LEVELS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON'S HIGH
TIDE. AS SUCH, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SITES AROUND THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY AND ALONG THE SE VA/NE NC COAST (BAYFORD, OYSTER,
LYNNHAVEN, AND DUCK) MAY BRIEFLY REACH NEAR MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO UPGRADE TO
COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS, WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE TRENDS TODAY IN CASE A SHORT-FUSED COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING IS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE, HAVE EXTENDED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE ALONG THE CHES BAY AND ALONG THE SE VA/NE NC
COAST. HAVE KEPT THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE UPPER JAMES RIVER, MUCH OF THE YORK RIVER, AND WORCESTER
COUNTY GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE WITH THE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE, HOWEVER, NUISANCE FLOODING IS STILL
EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY, HAVE EXPANDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES
TO INCLUDE ALL OF WORCESTER COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCEAN CITY TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE. ADDITIONAL
NUISANCE TO MINOR FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY WITH THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES INTO SATURDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ024-025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ075>078-
083>086-518-520>522.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ082-089-090-093-096-523-524.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ095-097-
098-525.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...HET/LKB
LONG TERM...HET/LKB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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