414
FXUS61 KAKQ 120542
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
142 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY, AND PUSHES OFF TO ATLANTIC CANADA ON SATURDAY, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DRY COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER COASTAL
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC EARLY THIS
MORNING. GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD (CENTERED NORTH OVER
CANADA) AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND, PATCHY FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED
AS OF 125 AM ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, STATISTICAL GUIDANCE, AND CAMS ALL HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT IN AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING THIS MORNING WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. THE FOG MAY IMPACT THE MORNING
COMMUTE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-95 AND I-85 CORRIDORS INCLUDING
THE CITY OF RICHMOND. FOG GRADUALLY LIFTS BY 9-10 AM. OTHERWISE,
MORNING LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED INLAND WITH MID
60S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY, WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH A
WEAK RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY, MOVING EAST TO ATLANTIC CANADA BY SATURDAY.
THIS IS A SIMILAR LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO WHAT DEVELOPED
EARLIER THIS WEEK, BUT THE DIFFERENCE WILL BE THAT THE INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH WILL STAY WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SE US COAST (AND WILL
NOT MOVE NORTHWARD). THEREFORE, EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F AT THE COAST, AND INTO THE LOWER
80S INLAND. THE NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SOME MODEST COOL AIR ALOFT
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCT-BKN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EACH AFTERNOON,
AFTER A MAINLY SUNNY MORNING. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL MOSTLY RANGE THROUGH THE 50S INLAND, WITH 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. BY SUNDAY, AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO DROP
SOUTH AND APPROACH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER COMPARED TO FRIDAY/SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
INLAND TO AROUND 80 CLOSER TO THE COAST. WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE DAY, BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
- ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS BY MID-WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA (NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES) AND WEDGES SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES HOVERING CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER. A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAINTY AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK
WITH BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF (AND ENSEMBLES) HINTING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM WHICH MAY BRING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN, CLOUDS, AND BREEZY WINDS. THE NBM REMAINS DRY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT HAS INCREASED A BIT FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS (~15% POPS). THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE
TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 140 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS SE VA/NE NC EARLY THIS
MORNING. GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD (CENTERED NORTH OVER
CANADA) AND CLEAR SKIES INLAND, PATCHY FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED
AS OF 125 AM ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, STATISTICAL GUIDANCE, AND CAMS ALL HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT IN AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING THIS MORNING WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. RIC HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
VIS DUE TO FOG, HOWEVER, PHF AND SBY MAY ALSO SEE IFR/LIFR VIS.
ADDITIONALLY, IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE FOG AND
MAY LINGER UNTIL ~14Z AT RIC ONCE THE FOG LIFTS. A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY 14Z ACROSS THE AREA WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCT AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPING. WINDS WERE
GENERALLY CALM ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT N ~5 KT AT ORF/ECG. WINDS
BECOME NE 5-10 KT BY LATE FRI MORNING WITH NE WINDS 10-15 KT
AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AT ECG.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCA REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE TWO SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES THROUGH
AFTERNOON AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED.
- ADDITIONAL SCA MAYBE NEEDED LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SEAS
ONCE AGAIN BECOME ELEVATED.
- HIGH RIP RISK FOR THE SOUTHERN BEACHES AND MODERATE RIP RISK FOR
THE NORTHERN BEACHES TOMORROW.
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHEAST CANADA AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THESE SYSTEMS HAS
WEAKENED. THIS HAS CAUSED WINDS TO LOWER OUT OF THE NORTH BETWEEN 10
TO 15 KT. SEAS HAVE ALSO LOWERED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO BE CANCELED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
OCEAN ZONES AS SEAS ARE BETWEEN 3 TO 4 FT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO
ZONES, SMALL CRAFTS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN EFFECT AS SEAS ARE
REMAINING ELEVATED BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FT WITH AN OCCASIONAL 6FT WAVE.
WHILE ACROSS THE BAY SEAS ARE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FT. THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ACROSS THE
SOUTH BELOW SCA CONDITIONS. TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING SEAS WILL
BE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FT ACROSS THE BAY AND 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE OCEAN.
WILL NOTE, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SEAS CONTINUE TO REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN OCEAN ZONE WITH
5FT SEAS. HOWEVER, AS THE WIND CONTINUES TO LIGHTEN AND SHIFT MORE
NORTHERLY IT SHOULD NOT HELP CREATE 5 FT SEAS. WINDS THIS EVENING
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SUB-SMALL CRAFT WITH WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15
KT.
FOR TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF CANADA AND OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVES BACK OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NE BETWEEN 10 TO
15 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEARING 20 KT ACROSS THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES. THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE DAY FRIDAY SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FT ACROSS
THE BAY AND 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE OCEAN. BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
SEAS ARE PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OCEAN ZONES TO 5FT
LEADING TO SCA CONDITIONS. THESE ELEVATED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH ALL OF SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS
TIME NO SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT TIME FRAME. LOOKING AHEAD INTO
THE EXTENDED, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME RECENT MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS HINTED ON A POTENTIAL OF A WEAK COASTAL LOW FORMING OFF
THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS LOW DOES DEVELOP IT COULD
POTENTIALLY BRING ELEVATED MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE ON THIS POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
RIP CURRENTS: DUE TO THE 8 SECOND PERIOD, 4 FT WAVES, AND ALMOST
SHORE-NORMAL FLOW A HIGH RIP RISK IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BEACHES TOMORROW. WHILE ACROSS THE NORTH A MODERATE RIP RISK IN
PLACE DUE TO WAVES BEING BETWEEN 3 TO 4 FT AND WINDS BEING ORIENTED
A TAD FURTHER NORTH.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...
DUE TO CONTINUANCE OF NE FLOW THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO ELEVATED
TIDES ACROSS THE CWA. THESE ELEVATED TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TIDAL ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 1- 2 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED NUISANCE TO MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDES. COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE
ALONG THE CHES BAY AND ALONG THE SE VA/NE NC COAST. HAVE KEPT THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE UPPER JAMES
RIVER, MUCH OF THE YORK RIVER, AND WORCESTER COUNTY GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE WITH THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE, HOWEVER, NUISANCE FLOODING IS STILL EXPECTED. BY THIS
WEEKEND THERE IS ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL NUISANCE TO MINOR
FLOODING.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ021>023.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ075>078-083>086-518-520>522.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ095-097-098-525.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-
100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/LKB
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...AJB/LKB
LONG TERM...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...HET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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