834
FXUS61 KAKQ 121738
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
138 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT,
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMUP THROUGH
MONDAY. A COASTAL LOW MAY IMPACT THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES,
AND AT LEAST LOW-END RAIN CHANCES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
IT'S A PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA
TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S INLAND TO THE LOW TO
MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. ADDITIONALLY, PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 255 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH A COASTAL
TROUGH AND COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AS SUCH, TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SAT AND LOW TO MID
80S SUN ACROSS THE AREA. THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS ALONG THE COAST OF SE VA/NE NC GIVEN
THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL TROUGH/LOW AND THEREFORE HIGHER
CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW. FOR THESE COASTAL LOCATIONS, HIGHS
REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 70S BOTH DAYS. WHILE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND, CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE AREA ON
SAT AND THE SE HALF OF THE AREA ON SUN. FARTHER INLAND, MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SAT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUN. BELOW NORMAL
LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SAT AND SUN NIGHTS INLAND WITH WIDESPREAD
TEMPS IN THE MID 50S (LOCALLY UPPER 50S) SAT NIGHT AND UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60F SUN NIGHT. ALONG THE COAST, LOWS REMAIN IN THE MID 60S
BOTH NIGHTS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 255 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND LOW-END RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ALOFT, A TALL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO CANADA NEXT WEEK,
ORIENTING FROM S TO N TO SW TO NE EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, A
COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
RIDGING INTO THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE, A COASTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE LOCAL AREA DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK (BEGINNING TUE). THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN
BETWEEN ALL OF THESE FEATURES, LEADING TO LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
CLOUD COVER LIKELY INCREASES ON MON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NW AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SE. HOWEVER, ANY RAIN LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
MON EVENING/NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THE
COASTAL LOW TRACKS NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON
THE FORECAST. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS (WHICH MATCHES THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN) IS THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS WITHIN THE COASTAL
TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND SLOWLY MOVES N THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A CLOUDY WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER AND COOLER TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK (SIMILAR TO WHAT JUST
OCCURRED THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS). CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE-HIGH
IN CLOUD COVER TUE-THU BUT LOW WITH RESPECT TO POPS. IF THE LOW
DOES TRACK NEAR THE COAST, THEN DRIZZLE AND RAIN WOULD BE
POSSIBLE FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH THU ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST. THE EPS SHOWS AROUND 0.5" OF RAIN IN RICHMOND
AND >1" ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC THROUGH THU WHEREAS THE GEFS HAS
0.15" AT RICHMOND AND 0.25- 0.5" ACROSS NE NC. ADDITIONALLY,
LIKE WHAT OCCURRED THIS WEEK, IF WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE AND RAIN
DOES DEVELOP, THE FORECASTED TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM AND VICE
VERSA. THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
LATE WEEK, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST MON, MID-UPPER 70S TUE, MID 70S WED, UPPER 70S THU,
AND LOWER 80S FRI. HOWEVER, WILL NOTE AGAIN THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
FOR THIS PERIOD AND THE TEMPS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER
AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA (THICKEST ACROSS
CENTRAL VA DOWN INTO NE NC) WITH BASES ~4000 TO 5000 FT. ANY CU
DISSIPATES BY SUNSET, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES CURRENTLY AT
SBY. PATCHY FOG ALSO LIKELY DEVELOPS WEST OF RIC TONIGHT,
POTENTIALLY GETTING TO RIC AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY AM (LOWER
CONFIDENCE). MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. NE
WINDS AVERAGE ~8 TO 12 KNOTS (OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT
ORF AND ECG) THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY INSTANCES OF AM PATCHY FOG.
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO MID-WEEK, LEADING TO
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS, RAIN SHOWERS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-
VFR CIGS (ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST).
MARINE
AS OF 255 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FROM TODAY THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.
- A HIGH RIP RISK REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SOUTHERN BEACHES WITH
A MODERATE RIP RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEKEND, WITH ELEVATED
NE WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EARLY MORNING WX ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM QUEBEC
TO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, WITH A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. NE WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE COMMON ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA, WITH 3 FT SEAS NORTH AND ~4 FT SEAS S OF CAPE CHARLES
(WITH SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FT OFF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS). NE WINDS
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT TODAY (HIGHEST S), WITH AN INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
N/15-18 KT S OF CAPE CHARLES EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
POTENTIALLY FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST, WHICH WOULD TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. IN FACT, LOCAL WIND
PROBS FOR SUSTAINED 18 KT WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40-70% ACROSS THE
NE NC COASTAL WATERS AND ARE NOW 15-40% OFFSHORE OF VA BEACH. AS A
RESULT, SEAS LIKELY BUILD TO 5-6 FT S OF CAPE HENRY BY TONIGHT.
GIVEN THE NE WIND AND THE FACT THAT EVEN NBM HAS 5 FT SEAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TWO OCEAN ZONES, WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED SCAS FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE CHARLES THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS DIMINISH TO
~10 KT SAT NIGHT-SUN, ALLOWING SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE EXTENDED, ANOTHER INCREASE IN NE WINDS (TO
POTENTIALLY 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE BAY/OCEAN) IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW LIKELY DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH. WHILE
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF ANY
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW, SCAS APPEAR LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE OCEAN DUE
TO SEAS. NE WINDS LIKELY RELAX A BIT BY NEXT WED/THU AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
RIP CURRENTS: DUE TO THE 8 SECOND PERIOD, 4 FT WAVES, AND ALMOST
SHORE-NORMAL FLOW A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BEACHES TODAY. A MODERATE RIP RISK REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NORTH DUE TO WAVES BEING ~3 FT AND WINDS BEING ORIENTED A TAD
FURTHER NORTH. THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BEACHES ON SATURDAY WITH 4-5 FT NEARSHORE WAVES
EXPECTED.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 255 AM EDT FRIDAY...
DUE TO CONTINUED NE FLOW AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, WATER LEVELS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE
ALONG THE CHES BAY AND ALONG THE SE VA/NE NC COAST. WILL NOTE THAT
THE ETSS FORECAST FOR SEVERAL SITES IN THE ADVISORY AREA ONLY PEAKS
IN ACTION STAGE TODAY, BUT WILL KEEP THE GOING HEADLINES. WILL ISSUE
STATEMENTS FOR THE UPPER JAMES RIVER AND MUCH OF THE YORK RIVER
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE WITH TODAY'S HIGH
TIDE. HOWEVER, NUISANCE FLOODING IS STILL EXPECTED HENCE THE
STATEMENTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF NUISANCE TO LOW-END MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL TIDE ON SATURDAY.
WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS/ADVISORIES FOR SATURDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ021>023.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ075>078-083>086-518-520>522.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ095-097-098-525.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-
100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/RMM
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...ERI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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