293
FXUS61 KAKQ 121826
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
226 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT,
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMUP THROUGH
MONDAY. A COASTAL LOW MAY IMPACT THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES,
AND AT LEAST LOW-END RAIN CHANCES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
IT'S A PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA
TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S INLAND TO THE LOW TO
MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. ADDITIONALLY, PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 225 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- REMAINING DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF VIRGINIA THROUGHOUT THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE, A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY, SLOWLY DRIFTING CLOSER (THOUGH REMAINING OFFSHORE) SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY,
WITH THE HIGHEST CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
TO WHAT WE SEE TODAY, WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 INLAND AND IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S WITH 60S ACROSS THE SE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND AND
UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
FOR BOTH DAYS, WITH THE HIGHEST CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 225 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION AS SOON AS TUESDAY AND
LINGERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT YET ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS SOON AS TUESDAY, WITH IMPACTS
LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY (AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY). THIS SYSTEM
WILL FORM ALONG THE STALLED COASTAL FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WE GET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF/EPS
REMAINS THE WETTER OF THE SOLUTIONS, WITH THE 12Z EPS TOTAL QPF MEAN
SHOWING 1+" FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE GFS/GEFS HAS BEEN DRIER, THOUGH HAS ALSO TRENDED
HIGHER WITH THE LATEST 12Z RUN. AS A RESULT, POPS HAVE INCREASED TO
THE 20-40% RANGE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS WE GET CLOSER. IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES, WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ONLY
REACH THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THOUGH
MAY BE COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW THE COASTAL SYSTEM EVOLVES. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA (THICKEST ACROSS
CENTRAL VA DOWN INTO NE NC) WITH BASES ~4000 TO 5000 FT. ANY CU
DISSIPATES BY SUNSET, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES CURRENTLY AT
SBY. PATCHY FOG ALSO LIKELY DEVELOPS WEST OF RIC TONIGHT,
POTENTIALLY GETTING TO RIC AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY AM (LOWER
CONFIDENCE). MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. NE
WINDS AVERAGE ~8 TO 12 KNOTS (OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT
ORF AND ECG) THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY INSTANCES OF AM PATCHY FOG.
ANOTHER COASTAL LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO MID-WEEK, LEADING TO
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS, RAIN SHOWERS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-
VFR CIGS (ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST).
MARINE
AS OF 255 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FROM TODAY THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.
- A HIGH RIP RISK REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SOUTHERN BEACHES WITH
A MODERATE RIP RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEKEND, WITH ELEVATED
NE WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EARLY MORNING WX ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM QUEBEC
TO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, WITH A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. NE WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE COMMON ACROSS THE
MARINE AREA, WITH 3 FT SEAS NORTH AND ~4 FT SEAS S OF CAPE CHARLES
(WITH SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FT OFF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS). NE WINDS
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT TODAY (HIGHEST S), WITH AN INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
N/15-18 KT S OF CAPE CHARLES EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
POTENTIALLY FORMS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST, WHICH WOULD TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. IN FACT, LOCAL WIND
PROBS FOR SUSTAINED 18 KT WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40-70% ACROSS THE
NE NC COASTAL WATERS AND ARE NOW 15-40% OFFSHORE OF VA BEACH. AS A
RESULT, SEAS LIKELY BUILD TO 5-6 FT S OF CAPE HENRY BY TONIGHT.
GIVEN THE NE WIND AND THE FACT THAT EVEN NBM HAS 5 FT SEAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TWO OCEAN ZONES, WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED SCAS FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE CHARLES THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS DIMINISH TO
~10 KT SAT NIGHT-SUN, ALLOWING SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE EXTENDED, ANOTHER INCREASE IN NE WINDS (TO
POTENTIALLY 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE BAY/OCEAN) IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW LIKELY DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH. WHILE
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF ANY
POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW, SCAS APPEAR LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE OCEAN DUE
TO SEAS. NE WINDS LIKELY RELAX A BIT BY NEXT WED/THU AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
RIP CURRENTS: DUE TO THE 8 SECOND PERIOD, 4 FT WAVES, AND ALMOST
SHORE-NORMAL FLOW A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BEACHES TODAY. A MODERATE RIP RISK REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NORTH DUE TO WAVES BEING ~3 FT AND WINDS BEING ORIENTED A TAD
FURTHER NORTH. THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BEACHES ON SATURDAY WITH 4-5 FT NEARSHORE WAVES
EXPECTED.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 255 AM EDT FRIDAY...
DUE TO CONTINUED NE FLOW AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, WATER LEVELS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE
ALONG THE CHES BAY AND ALONG THE SE VA/NE NC COAST. WILL NOTE THAT
THE ETSS FORECAST FOR SEVERAL SITES IN THE ADVISORY AREA ONLY PEAKS
IN ACTION STAGE TODAY, BUT WILL KEEP THE GOING HEADLINES. WILL ISSUE
STATEMENTS FOR THE UPPER JAMES RIVER AND MUCH OF THE YORK RIVER
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE WITH TODAY'S HIGH
TIDE. HOWEVER, NUISANCE FLOODING IS STILL EXPECTED HENCE THE
STATEMENTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF NUISANCE TO LOW-END MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL TIDE ON SATURDAY.
WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS/ADVISORIES FOR SATURDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ075>078-083>086-518-520>522.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ095-097-098-525.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-
100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/RMM
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...ERI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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