037
FXUS61 KAKQ 131450
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1050 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, AS ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST, ALONG WITH A
MODEST WARMUP THROUGH MONDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THAT A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW IMPACTS THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1050 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BREEZY ACROSS SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND
20 MPH POSSIBLE.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS 1024MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ATLANTIC
CANADA, WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST ACROSS
OUR AREA INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE, A WELL-DEFINED QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OFF THE EAST COAST
OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE FRONT IS ORIENTED BENEATH A NARROW
MID-LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH EXTENDS DOWN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
NNW OFFSHORE OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ALOFT, AN UPPER-LEVEL OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE CONUS, WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE NATION'S MIDSECTION
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CENTRAL CANADA, ON EITHER SIDE OF
TROUGHING OVER QC/NEW ENGLAND AND THE PACIFIC NW, RESPECTIVELY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST, AND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH.
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY BREEZY NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. GUSTS UP TO 15-20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS NEAR/ALONG THE COAST. THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH IS
ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THOSE SHOWERS WILL
STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTH, BUT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS INLAND. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MID-UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS
INLAND AND THE COOLEST TEMPS ALONG THE SE COAST IN INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS (LOCALLY UPPER 50S) AND MID 60S ALONG THE
COAST. SOME LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S ARE ONCE AGAIN LIKELY WELL
INLAND OVER THE PIEDMONT AND NORTH OF RIC METRO.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 255 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- REMAINING GENERALLY DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA SUN INTO MON. MEANWHILE,
A WEAK COASTAL LOW LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL SLACKEN SOME ON SUN BUT
TIGHTEN AGAIN ON MON. AS SUCH, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC WITH STRONGER WINDS ON MON.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SUN ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH INLAND AND 25 MPH ALONG THE COAST POSSIBLE ON MON.
ADDITIONALLY, CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE BOTH DAYS WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES SUN (MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST) AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EVERYWHERE ON MON. HOWEVER, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS MON ACROSS NE NC AND FAR SE VA, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS
LOW (15-25% POPS). OTHERWISE, HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S SUN AND MON
ARE EXPECTED INLAND WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 255 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A COASTAL LOW IMPACTING
THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE COAST POSSIBLE.
- A WARMUP IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK.
ALOFT, A TALL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO CANADA NEXT WEEK,
ORIENTING SW TO NE THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE, A COASTAL TROUGH
LINGERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SE INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK, RIDGING INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE, A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE COASTAL
LOW REMAIN UNCERTAIN, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN IMPACTS
FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE COAST POSSIBLE.
THE NBM CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH POPS AND NOW HAS 30-40% POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA MON NIGHT, INCREASING TO 35-45%
ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND WED. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA BY THU WITH POPS DECREASING TO 15-20%. THE EPS
CONTINUES TO SHOW 0.75-1" OF RAIN NORTH OF I-64 AND 1-1.7" SOUTH OF
I-64 (HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC). THE GEPS (CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE) LEANS TOWARDS TO THE EPS WITH >1" POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
VA/NC, HOWEVER, THE GEFS CONTINUES TO BE THE LOW OUTLIER AND ONLY
HAS <0.25" WEST OF I-95 AND 0.25-0.4" EAST OF I-95. AS SUCH,
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A BENEFICIAL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 1" OR MORE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE TEMPERATURE ASPECT OF THE
FORECAST. HIGHS TUE AND/OR WED MAY BE COOLER THAN THE MID-UPPER 70S
CURRENTLY FORECAST DEPENDING ON HOW PERSISTENT THE RAINFALL IS. IN
ANY CASE, COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE AND WED WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO WARM BY THU INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY FRI AND SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
POSSIBLE FRI AND LOW TO MID 80S SAT.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 655 AM EDT SATURDAY...
PATCHY FOG WAS NOTED ACROSS MAINLY THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE
THIS MORNING ALONG WITH LOW STRATUS (CIGS AROUND 200 FT). AS
SUCH, SBY MAY CONTINUE TO SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 13-14Z DUE
TO A COMBINATION OF VIS TO FOG AND CIGS DUE TO STRATUS. ANY FOG
LIFTS BY 13-14Z WITH A RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INLAND AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CLOSER TO THE COAST TODAY. WILL NOTE THAT
BKN SKY COVER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ORF/ECG THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE, NE
WINDS INCREASE TO 5-10 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH 10-15 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE AT ORF/ECG.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY, OUTSIDE OF ANY INSTANCES OF AM
PATCHY FOG. ANOTHER COASTAL LOW APPROACHES LATE MON INTO MID-
WEEK, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS, RAIN SHOWERS, AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUB- VFR CIGS (ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST).
MARINE
AS OF 200 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.
- A HIGH RIP RISK REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SOUTHERN BEACHES WITH
A MODERATE RIP RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES THROUGH
MONDAY.
- SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, WITH ELEVATED
NE WINDS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EARLY MORNING WX ANALYSIS SHOWS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
FROM ATLANTIC CANADA TO THE APPALACHIANS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS
LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST, BUT THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS ALLOWING FOR A 15-20 KT NE WIND OVER
THE SE VA/NE NC COASTAL WATERS, WITH 10-15 KT WINDS OVER THE LOWER
BAY, AND 5-10 KT OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA. SEAS ARE
~3 FT N AND 4-5 FT S. SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT (MAINLY FOR SEAS) ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TWO COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVENING. THE
ELEVATED NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BY A FEW
KNOTS TONIGHT/SUNDAY. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY STAY AROUND
15 KT IN THE NE NC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT TONIGHT/SUN, BUT MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 5
FT ACROSS NE NC. HOWEVER, DON'T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE
CURRENT SCA.
ANOTHER INCREASE IN NE WINDS (LIKELY TO SCA CRITERIA ACROSS MOST OF
THE MARINE AREA) IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW
LIKELY DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH AND LINGERS OFFSHORE. PEAK WIND SPEEDS
(NE BETWEEN 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS
DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW SLOWLY TRACKS NE
AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. WHILE THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF ANY POTENTIAL
COASTAL LOW, SCAS APPEAR LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE OCEAN DUE TO SEAS,
WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 18+ KT WINDS ACROSS THE
LOWER BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND CURRITUCK SOUND AS WELL. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD 5-6 FT SEAS/3-5 FT WAVES BY MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY. COULD DEFINITELY SEE SEAS A BIT HIGHER THAN 6 FT
ACROSS THE SE VA/NE NC COASTAL WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHERN BEACHES AND A MODERATE RISK FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES. SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED AT THE SOUTHERN BEACHES WITH AN 7-8 S PERIOD. THIS
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY (AND LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY).
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...MAM/RMM
NEAR TERM...MAM/RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...ERI
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