033
FXUS61 KAKQ 131742
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
142 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, AS ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST, ALONG WITH A
MODEST WARMUP THROUGH MONDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THAT A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW IMPACTS THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1050 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BREEZY ACROSS SE VA/NE NC THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND
20 MPH POSSIBLE.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS 1024MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ATLANTIC
CANADA, WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST ACROSS
OUR AREA INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MEANWHILE, A WELL-DEFINED QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OFF THE EAST COAST
OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE FRONT IS ORIENTED BENEATH A NARROW
MID-LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH EXTENDS DOWN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
NNW OFFSHORE OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ALOFT, AN UPPER-LEVEL OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE CONUS, WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE NATION'S MIDSECTION
EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO CENTRAL CANADA, ON EITHER SIDE OF
TROUGHING OVER QC/NEW ENGLAND AND THE PACIFIC NW, RESPECTIVELY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST, AND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH.
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY BREEZY NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. GUSTS UP TO 15-20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS NEAR/ALONG THE COAST. THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH IS
ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THOSE SHOWERS WILL
STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTH, BUT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS INLAND. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MID-UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS
INLAND AND THE COOLEST TEMPS ALONG THE SE COAST IN INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S
FOR MOST INLAND AREAS (LOCALLY UPPER 50S) AND MID 60S ALONG THE
COAST. SOME LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S ARE ONCE AGAIN LIKELY WELL
INLAND OVER THE PIEDMONT AND NORTH OF RIC METRO.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 255 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- REMAINING GENERALLY DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA SUN INTO MON. MEANWHILE,
A WEAK COASTAL LOW LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL SLACKEN SOME ON SUN BUT
TIGHTEN AGAIN ON MON. AS SUCH, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC WITH STRONGER WINDS ON MON.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SUN ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH INLAND AND 25 MPH ALONG THE COAST POSSIBLE ON MON.
ADDITIONALLY, CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE BOTH DAYS WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES SUN (MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST) AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EVERYWHERE ON MON. HOWEVER, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS MON ACROSS NE NC AND FAR SE VA, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS
LOW (15-25% POPS). OTHERWISE, HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S SUN AND MON
ARE EXPECTED INLAND WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 255 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A COASTAL LOW IMPACTING
THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE COAST POSSIBLE.
- A WARMUP IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK.
ALOFT, A TALL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO CANADA NEXT WEEK,
ORIENTING SW TO NE THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE, A COASTAL TROUGH
LINGERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SE INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK, RIDGING INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE, A COASTAL LOW LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH MID-WEEK. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE COASTAL
LOW REMAIN UNCERTAIN, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN IMPACTS
FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE COAST POSSIBLE.
THE NBM CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH POPS AND NOW HAS 30-40% POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA MON NIGHT, INCREASING TO 35-45%
ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND WED. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA BY THU WITH POPS DECREASING TO 15-20%. THE EPS
CONTINUES TO SHOW 0.75-1" OF RAIN NORTH OF I-64 AND 1-1.7" SOUTH OF
I-64 (HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC). THE GEPS (CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE) LEANS TOWARDS TO THE EPS WITH >1" POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
VA/NC, HOWEVER, THE GEFS CONTINUES TO BE THE LOW OUTLIER AND ONLY
HAS <0.25" WEST OF I-95 AND 0.25-0.4" EAST OF I-95. AS SUCH,
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A BENEFICIAL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 1" OR MORE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE TEMPERATURE ASPECT OF THE
FORECAST. HIGHS TUE AND/OR WED MAY BE COOLER THAN THE MID-UPPER 70S
CURRENTLY FORECAST DEPENDING ON HOW PERSISTENT THE RAINFALL IS. IN
ANY CASE, COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUE AND WED WITH TEMPS
BEGINNING TO WARM BY THU INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY FRI AND SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
POSSIBLE FRI AND LOW TO MID 80S SAT.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 140 PM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS TO BEGIN THE 18Z/13 TAF
PERIOD. MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS INLAND, WITH INCREASING MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS OVER SE TERMINALS. ASIDE FROM INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
AND SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS ALONG THE COAST, RELATIVELY PLEASANT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. NE WINDS
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INLAND, CLOSER TO
10-15 KT SE COASTAL TERMINALS, ALONG WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL GROUND FOG AT SBY LATE TONIGHT, WITH SOME GROUND FOG
ALSO FORECAST AT PHF AFTER 04Z/MIDNIGHT EDT. ANOTHER COASTAL
LOW APPROACHES MON THROUGH MIDWEEK, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS, RAIN SHOWERS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CIGS,
ESPECIALLY FOR SE COASTAL TERMINALS (ECG/ORF/PHF).
MARINE
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR THE NORTHERN OBX, MAINLY
DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.
- A HIGH RIP RISK REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SOUTHERN BEACHES WITH A
MODERATE RIP RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY.
- SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BUT SEAS AROUND 5
FT ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. ELEVATED NE WINDS
ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS
ALLOWING FOR A ~15 KT NE WIND OVER THE SE VA/NE NC COASTAL WATERS,
WITH 10-15 KT WINDS OVER THE LOWER BAY, AND 5-10 KT OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA. SEAS ARE ~3 FT N AND 4-6 FT S. SCAS
REMAIN IN EFFECT (MAINLY FOR SEAS) FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
SOUTHWARD. OPTED TO EXTEND THE THE SOUTHERN-MOST COASTAL ZONE
OFF THE NC OBX INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE
KEEPS SEAS ABOVE 5 FT IN THIS AREA. SOME UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER
AS NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 15 KT THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY SUNDAY BUT MODELS MAINTAIN 5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL ZONE.
ANOTHER INCREASE IN NE WINDS (LIKELY TO SCA CRITERIA ACROSS MOST OF
THE MARINE AREA) IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW
LIKELY DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH AND POTENTIALLY LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE
COAST. 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING WINDS
INCREASING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. PEAK WIND SPEEDS (NE BETWEEN 15-25
KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KT) ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BUT THE LATEST GFS SHOWS THE LOW
LIFTING N ALONG THE COAST DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE THE REMAINDER OF
THE GUIDANCE HAS A MUCH WEAKER LOW STILL S OR SE OF THE LOCAL
AREA. ACCORDINGLY, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
STRENGTH/TRACK OF ANY POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW, SCAS APPEAR LIKELY
FOR AT LEAST THE OCEAN DUE TO SEAS, WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF A
PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 18+ KT WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER BAY, LOWER
JAMES RIVER, AND CURRITUCK SOUND AS WELL. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS WIDESPREAD 5-6 FT SEAS/3-5 FT WAVES BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
COULD DEFINITELY SEE SEAS A BIT HIGHER THAN 6 FT ACROSS THE SE
VA/NE NC COASTAL WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHERN BEACHES AND A MODERATE RISK FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES. SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED AT THE SOUTHERN BEACHES WITH AN 7-8 S PERIOD. THIS
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY (AND LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY).
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...MAM/RMM
NEAR TERM...MAM/RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...ERI/RHR
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