463
FXUS61 KAKQ 150001
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
801 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE IN A COASTAL LOW IMPACTING THE REGION LATE MONDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN, COOLER TEMPERATURES,
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. A WARMUP IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM SE TO NW TONIGHT.
AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS 1008MB LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AND A 1024MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO, RIDGING SOUTH INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. ALOFT, THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE
GA/FL COAST WITH A TALL/SKINNY RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH AND WEST AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER WITH
THE FAR NW COUNTIES GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S WHILE AREAS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A FEW LOW 70S PERSIST
INTO NE NC WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN THE THICKEST. NE WINDS
CONTINUE TONIGHT, STRONGEST SE WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
STEEPER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT
A FEW MID AND UPPER 60S ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST IN SE VA AND NE
NC. CLOUDS LOWER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
DRIFTS NORTHWARD.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY ON TUESDAY AND
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE
HAMPTON ROADS VICINITY INTO NE NC.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF INTO A
CLOSED LOW ON MONDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TOWARD CAPE HATTERAS BY THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING
ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEED BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH PW
VALUES INCREASING TO 1.8-2.0". 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS CONVERGED AND
NEARLY ALL MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ALONG THE NC COAST AND
THEN TURNING NW AND MOVING INLAND ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS TO THE SW OF THE SURFACE FEATURE. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE THAT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL IMPACT THE REGION ALONG WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. RAIN MOVES
INTO NE NC BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, SPREADING SLOWLY N AND W OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR CONFIGURATION TO TODAY'S
WITH THE RELATIVE WARMEST TEMPS NORTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND (NEAR 80
DEGREES) WITH MID AND UPPER 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND ACROSS NC.
WINDS LIKELY PEAK MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT QUITE CONFIDENT
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT FOR A WIND ADVISORY BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY THE
POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS AS THE GRADIENT WILL BE
QUITE STEEP BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO
THE NORTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON'T SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO HAVE REMOVED
THE MENTION OF THUNDER FROM MOST OF THE AREA DURING THESE PERIODS.
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS
SOME HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THE REGION BUT THIS WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE SE QUARTER OF THE AREA. IN AREAS TO THE N AND W, WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S BUT ROBUST
FRONTOGENESIS ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO.
FORECAST FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL LIFTS NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO MOVE BACK TO THE EAST AND
NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY WITH MANY PIEDMONT
LOCATIONS NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 60S WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG
THE COAST. HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BUT SUSPECT IT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA WHERE THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONFINED.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGE 1-3" ACROSS THE REGION (LOWEST NW
AND HIGHEST SE), THOUGH LOCALLY 4+ INCHES IS POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIP
COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WPC HAS INCLUDED NE NC IN A
MARGINAL ERO ON MONDAY, EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE HAMPTON ROADS
REGION ON TUESDAY. GIVEN VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE NEED FOR A TARGETED FLOOD WATCH IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
CYCLES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 335 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY WITH REBOUNDING
TEMPERATURES.
- A BACKDOOR FRONT POTENTIALLY MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CLOUDS.
PRECIP MOVES OUT OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WARM BACK INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH CLEARING SKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND 60 DEGREES INLAND AND MID 60S NEAR THE COAST.
DRY AND WARM ON FRIDAY WITH WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. HIGHS CLIMB INTO
THE LOW/MID 80S BEFORE A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE N OF THE REGION. LOWS OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. HIGHS
SATURDAY AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE 50S AND 60S.
BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME LOW END PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY BUT
NOT MUCH SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POPS THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 800 PM EDT SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED N OF THE REGION AS OF 00Z, WITH WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WELL E OF THE CAROLINA COAST. VFR UNDER SCT-BKN
CIRRUS WITH AN E TO NE WIND OF 5-10KT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED N OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS
LIKELY DEVELOP AT ECG BY MONDAY AFTN, AND POTENTIALLY AT ORF AND
PHF LATER MONDAY AFTN. LIGHT RAIN WITH POSSIBLE MVFR VSBY
DEVELOP AT ECG MONDAY AFTN, WITH A CHC OF LIGHT RAIN AND ORF AND
PHF LATER IN THE AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE AT RIC
AND SBY THROUGH MONDAY AFTN. THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE NE TONIGHT, AND THEN INCREASE TO 8-12KT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, BEFORE INCREASING TO 10-15KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT
INLAND, AND 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO ~25KT LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTN.
THE COASTAL LOW PUSHES INTO EASTERN NC MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS
INTO MIDWEEK, LEADING TO INCREASED CLOUDS, WIDESPREAD RAIN, AND
AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ACROSS ALL AREA
TERMINALS. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE THURSDAY, WITH DRY AND
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY FRIDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS REMAIN IN FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR 20-25 KT NE
WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS. SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT STARTING TODAY
FEET FOR NORTHERN WATERS AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF
WINDMILL POINT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE SE VA/NE NC COASTAL WATERS, THE LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND THE CURRITUCK SOUND.
- A HIGH RIP RISK REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SOUTHERN BEACHES WITH
A MODERATE RIP RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES THROUGH
MONDAY. THE RIP RISK INCREASES TO HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BEACHES ON TUESDAY.
- A PERIOD OF LOW-END GALE FORCE GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER BAY MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS 1018MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE
OF THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST CONUS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES COMPELLING
SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE E-NE AS OF THIS WRITING
10-15 KT, HIGHEST OVER THE SE VA/NE NC COASTAL WATERS MAINLY SOUTH
OF CAPE CHARLES, WITH WINDS CLOSER TO 10 KT OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS. SEAS ARE ~3-4 FT N AND 5-7 FT S.
THE BUILDING E-SE WIND WAVE ALLOW FOR SEAS TO REMAIN ELEVATED
(5-6 FT) OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS, AND SOUTH OF CAPE
CHARLES, AND THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN
MARGINAL, BUT LOOK TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, AND A SCA REMAINS IN PLACE THERE AS WELL. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOOKS TO BRIEFLY SLACKEN TO SOME EXTENT THIS EVENING,
BEFORE TIGHTENING ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
MARINE CONDITIONS STILL LOOK TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ON MONDAY, AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT, AS THE WEAK LOW OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST DEEPENS AND LIFTS NNE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. THE 14/12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND FROM
THE PAST FEW RUNS TOWARDS A STRONGER LOW THAT LIFTS CLOSER TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA BY
MORNING/MIDDAY MONDAY ACROSS THE LOWER BAY/LOWER JAMES AND SE VA/NE
NC COASTAL WATERS, WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS INCREASE FURTHER MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT MORE DUE TO THE APPROACHING LOW.
PEAK WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY (NE AROUND 25
KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 KT). LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR 34+ KT WIND GUSTS
HAVE INCREASED TO 60-80+% ALONG THE COAST AND 40-60% IN THE LOWER
CHES BAY. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED GALE WARNINGS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND, THE LOWER CHES BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT, THE LOWER JAMES AND THE CURRITUCK SOUND. GALE STARTS MONDAY
MORNING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS (WITH WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON), WITH THE GALES STARTING OVER THE REMAINING AREAS
REFERENCED MONDAY EVENING. BOTH RUN INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FARTHER
NORTH, SCA REMAIN IN EFFECT. GALE WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
FARTHER NORTHWARD IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.
WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM TUESDAY EVENING
INTO WEDNESDAY, AS THE VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW TRACKS OVER THE MARINE
AREA (RESULTING IN A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT). SUB-SCA WINDS
ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK. WITH THE INCREASING NE WINDS, SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT BY MON NIGHT/TUE WITH 3-5 FT WAVES ON THE BAY
(POTENTIALLY TO ~6 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY). HIGH SURF ADVISORIES
ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED FOR VA BEACH AND THE NE NC OUTER BANKS BY
MONDAY EVENING. THE HIGH RIP RISK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHERN
BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE RIP RISK IS MODERATE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BEACHES FROM THROUGH MONDAY, INCREASING TO HIGH ON TUE.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...
WITH THE INCREASING NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS MON NIGHT-TUE, TIDAL
ANOMALIES ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND SE VA/NE NC COAST ARE EXPECTED
INCREASE BY 1-1.5 FT. ANOMALIES ACROSS THE UPPER BAY WON'T INCREASE
AS MUCH. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING ACROSS THE TIDAL YORK/JAMES, MIDDLE/LOWER BAY, AND SE VA/NE
NC COAST. ETSS SHOWS SOLID TO HIGH-END MINOR FLOODING ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS, WITH PEAK WATER LEVELS OCCURRING DURING THE TUESDAY
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
MODERATE FLOODING AT JAMESTOWN/LYNNHAVEN, WITH THE 4.5 FT MLLW
THRESHOLD FALLING BETWEEN THE 50TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES IN THE NAEFS
BASED P-ETSS. PEAK WATER LEVELS FROM THE DETERMINISTIC ETSS TUESDAY
EVENING ALSO GENERALLY FALL BETWEEN THE 50TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE
FROM THE NAEFS-BASED P-ETSS.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
9/16 9/17
RIC 65/1959 61/2011
ORF 64/1963 65/1986
SBY 59/1963 63/1924
ECG 66/1963 65/2011
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ632-
634-638.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ633.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-
638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ650-652.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ654-
656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...RHR/RMM
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
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