862
FXUS61 KAKQ 152335
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
735 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE IN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS LARGELY IN PLACE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A COASTAL LOW APPROACHES THE REGION THIS EVENING,
LINGERING THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN,
COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF WARMUP IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK BEFORE A
RETURN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 350 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DEEPENING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT,
BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.
- A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2- 4"+ IS POSSIBLE.
- THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE
VA EASTERN SHORE AND PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULAS. BREEZY NE
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH INLAND AND 35-45 MPH ALONG
THE BAY SOUTHERN BAY AND ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUE TUESDAY.
AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA
INTO NEW ENGLAND. ALOFT, AND UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE COASTAL LOW
LIFTING N AND THEN NW TONIGHT, AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OR MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY AS LONG AS IT IS DISPLACED FROM THE UPPER LOW. THE LATEST
MODELS SHOW THE TWO LOWS BECOMING VERTICALLY-STACKED BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING OR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLOW WEAKENING EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE SO FAR TODAY,
SHOWING ROBUST SUPERCELLS OVER THE GULF STREAM NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW. RAINFALL SPREADS N AND NW LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE FGEN
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW INTENSIFIES. EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS
THROUGH TONIGHT OF GENERALLY 1-2" ACROSS NE NC, 0.5-1.5" ACROSS SE
VA, AND <0.25" NW OF RICHMOND WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND TRAINING OF SHOWERS, WPC HAS PLACED INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC FOR TONIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE ENHANCED FGEN NORTH OF THE LOW ALLOWING FOR
A BELT OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND NEAR 70F DEW POINTS ALONG THE
COAST, SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
FAR SE VA/NE NC FOR TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING A QUICK, SPIN-
UP TORNADO. WILL NOTE THAT WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT IS LOW GIVEN
WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A STABLE SURFACE LAYER,
ELEVATED STORMS/THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY SE VA/NE
NC.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
AREAS WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG NE WIND ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED
NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULAS AS WELL AS
THE VA EASTERN SHORE. INLAND, WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS 20-25 MPH. AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST (ESPECIALLY S), WILL SEE
20-30 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH.
RAIN AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH THE FOCUS FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WPC HAS
INTRODUCED ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK ERO ON TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA. THE FLOOD WATCH BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES
UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL OF NE NC AND GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF I-85 AND SOUTH OF I-64. THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY ACROSS NE NC BUT WILL NOT MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE DAY, KEEPING
THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE/THETA-E FEED GOING INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL. SOME LOW/MID 70S ARE POSSIBLE FOR NE NC AND SE
VA WHERE MORE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN WARM ADVECTION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON'T SHOW MUCH INSTABILITY ALOFT WEST OF THE 95
CORRIDOR BUT HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO. THE LOW FILLS IN CONSIDERABLY AFTER
SUNSET TUESDAY BUT DOESN'T MOVE VERY MUCH, SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 350 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS LINGER WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE.
- LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.
THE COASTAL LOW WEAKENS ON WED WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP
TO ~0.5" POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL ON WED WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 60S INLAND (GENERALLY UPPER 60S ARE
FORECAST) AND LOW- MID 70S ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH
UPPER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC. WINDS BECOME N/NE AND
DIMINISH TO 5-10 MPH WED AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND THE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFFSHORE, WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WASHES OUT ACROSS THE REGION THU WITH THE
COASTAL LOW WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS NE. HOWEVER, CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN LINGER INTO THUR MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
WARMER ON THU WITH UPPER 70S FOR MOST. LOWS OVERNIGHT FALL INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 350 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMER FRIDAY AHEAD OF A BACK DOOR FRONT THAT DROPS SOUTH THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE EAST COAST FRI INTO SAT WITH A
WARMUP EXPECTED ON FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S POSSIBLE. A STRONG
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE INTO NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CAD POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING. AS SUCH, COOLER
WEATHER RETURNS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY AND INTO
THE 70S SUN AND MON.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 735 PM EDT MONDAY...
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND A STRONG AREA OF HIGH CENTERED OVER SE
CANADA, RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA. BKN-OVC SKIES ARE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE. WINDS
ARE OUT OF THE NNE BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 25 KT AS OF LATEST OBS. ACROSS THE SE SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF
30 TO 35 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS EVENING AS THE
COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. WHILE VFR HAS PREVAILED AT
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS CIGS AND VIS DROP TO
MVFR AND IFR. THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL OFFSHORE FOR
THE MOST PART, BUT A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT ONSHORE
AND INTO THE PIEDMONT. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE SE DROPPING CIGS AND VIS. FORECASTING
DEGRADING CONDITIONS FOR THE SE TERMINALS AS EARLY AS 03Z, THEN
BETWEEN 06-08Z FOR RIC AND SBY.
THE COASTAL LOW PUSHES INTO EASTERN NC TONIGHT AND LINGERS INTO
MIDWEEK, LEADING WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TUE THROUGH AT LEAST
WED AND REDUCED VIS ACROSS ALL AREA TERMINALS. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THURSDAY, WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY FRIDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 350 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MARINE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY, AS LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DEEPENS WHILE TRACKING TOWARD THE
MARINE AREA. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES BY
THIS EVENING. NE WINDS 15 TO 25 KT, INCREASE TO 20-30 KT W/FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 35-45 KT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A HIGH RIP RISK REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL BEACHES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW EVENING.
- WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FILLS IN.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC OUTER BANKS.
MEANWHILE, ~1028MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA AND THE NE CONUS
RIDGES SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS ARE N/NNE AT 15-25
KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. 12Z/15 TRENDS CONTINUE TO SLOW WITH
THE SPEED OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW, EXTENDING THE WINDOW OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DETERIORATE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY LEVELING OFF
TOWARD SUNRISE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS, WHILE WINDS INCREASE
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY FARTHER NORTH, AS THE WEAKENING LOW OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST DEEPENS AND LIFTS N TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 9-12 FT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, 5-8 FT OVER THE VA
CAPES TOWARD THE MD COAST. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE 2-3 FT, UP TO 4 FT
TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INLAND OVER EASTERN NC TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, GRADUALLY FILLING AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED AS IT LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. WINDS INCREASE TO 25-
35 KT ACROSS THE OCEAN, MIDDLE/LOWER BAY, LOWER JAMES, AND CURRITUCK
SOUND BY THIS EVENING. CAMS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHES
BAY ZONES NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT, EVEN SHOWING GUSTS TO 30-35 KT
FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE UPPER
RIVERS. HAVE THEREFORE ADDED GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL AREA WATERS FOR
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS
THE NC COASTAL WATERS TUE MORNING, BUT LIKELY REMAIN 25-30 KT WITH
30-40 KT GUSTS FARTHER NORTH BEFORE DROPPING TO HIGH-END SCA LEVELS
BY TUE EVENING-EARLY TUE NIGHT. WILL ALLOW GALE HEADLINES TO RUN
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, WITH THE IDEA THAT WE CAN
ADJUST BACK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THEREAFTER INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING BEFORE MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY WED NIGHT/THU, WHEN
WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH THE LOW LIFTING OUT AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXING. SUB-SCA WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SEAS WILL BUILD NORTH THIS EVENING, BECOMING 8-11 FT BY TONIGHT/TUE,
AND MAY EVEN BUILD A BIT MORE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. WAVES
BUILD TO 3-6 FT ON THE BAY, POTENTIALLY TO ~7 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE HIGH RIP RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
TUE/WED.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 350 PM EDT MONDAY...
WITH THE INCREASING NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS THROUGH TUE, TIDAL
ANOMALIES ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND SE VA/NE NC COAST ARE EXPECTED
INCREASE BY 1-1.5 FT. ANOMALIES ACROSS THE UPPER BAY WON'T INCREASE
AS MUCH (ESPECIALLY ON THE E SIDE OF THE BAY GIVEN THE NE WIND).
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF NUISANCE TO MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING ACROSS THE TIDAL POTOMAC/RAPPAHANNOCK/YORK/JAMES,
MIDDLE/LOWER BAY, AND SE VA/NE NC COAST. ETSS SHOWS SOLID TO HIGH-
END MINOR FLOODING ACROSS MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS, WITH PEAK WATER
LEVELS OCCURRING DURING THE TUESDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
MODERATE FLOODING NOW APPEARS LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING ALONG THE TIDAL
JAMES, SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND SE VA COAST. GIVEN
THE INCREASE IN WINDS, ETSS IS NOW WELL INTO MODERATE THRESHOLDS IN
THESE LOCATIONS DURING THE TUE EVENING'S HIGH TIDE. ALSO, THE 50TH
PERCENTILE IS NOW JUST IN THE 4.8 - 4.9 FT MLLW THRESHOLD RANGE AT
JAMESTOWN WITH THE 90TH PERCENTILE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE MAJOR
FLOOD THRESHOLD OF 5.0 FT MLLW. THESE PERCENTILES FROM THE P-ETSS
SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORECAST WINDS/SYNOPTIC PATTERN. AS SUCH,
COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN CONVERTED OVER TO WARNINGS FOR
JAMESTOWN TO NORFOLK/VA BEACH FOR THE TUESDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE WATCH ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
SOLID TO HIGH-END MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THROUGH WED MORNING'S TIDE
CYCLE.
GIVEN THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING (MAINLY LOW-END MINOR) BEGINS WITH
THE HIGH TIDE THIS AFTN/EVENING FROM LEWISETTA TO NORFOLK/VA BEACH,
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES RUN FOR THESE LOCALITIES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ADVISORIES ALSO CONTINUE FOR EASTERN CURRITUCK FOR TODAY,
AS WATER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO CREST BELOW MINOR THERE TONIGHT WITH
THE LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALSO, THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE
EASTERN SHORE MAY NEED A ROUND OF ADVISORIES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING'S CYCLE, BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW WITH WATER LEVELS EXPECTED
TO CREST BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
9/16 9/17
RIC 65/1959 61/2011
ORF 64/1963 65/1986
SBY 59/1963 63/1924
ECG 66/1963 65/2011
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MDZ025.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-
102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ102.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ079>082-087>090-
092-093-095>098-523>525.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ075>078-
085-521-522.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ083-084-
086-518-520-523.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
VAZ084-086-099-100-523-525.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ089-090-
093-096-524-525.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR VAZ089-090-093-096-524-525.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ095-097-
098.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ095-098.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
VAZ095-097-098.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ630-631-
635>637-650-652.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ630-631-650-652.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ632-634-638-654-656.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-658.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ635>637.
SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR/RMM
LONG TERM...RHR/RMM
AVIATION...AC/HET
MARINE...ERI/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
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