945
FXUS61 KAKQ 010530
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
130 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HURRICANE IMELDA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OUT TO SEA. LIGHT RAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MID TO LATE WEEK
WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNING.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 745 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS
UP TO 25-35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
THE EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD OF HURRICANE IMELDA REMAINS OVER THE AREA
AS THE STORM MOVES FURTHER EAST OFF THE SE US COAST. ONLY ISOLATED
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW
PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH
THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH. DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. UNTIL THAT DRIER AIR MOVES IN,
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. TEMPERATURES AS OF 740 PM
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT, THE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NW
PIEDMONT WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER (LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ACROSS SE VA/NE NC).
OVERCAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND HURRICANE IMELDA WILL
TIGHTEN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND N-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
(MAINLY ALONG THE COAST) WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
AS HURRICANE IMELDA CONTINUES TO TREK FURTHER OFFSHORE INTO THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY, THE EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE
STILL LIKELY WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW ALONG THE COAST, BUT
SHOULD CLEAR OUT ELSEWHERE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS
THE AREA, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
IMELDA. WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED INLAND AND GUSTS
OF 25-35 MPH NEAR THE COAST. THESE BREEZY WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE
AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DECLINE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH COOLER LOWS IN THE MID 40S
TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT AND UPPER 50S TO THE EAST. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DOWN A COOLER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON THURSDAY IN AROUND 70F FOR THE
HIGH AND MID 40S TO UPPER 50S FOR THE LOW.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A WARM UP THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINATE OVER THE AREA WITH A COOLER
AIRMASS, FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL LOOSE ITS HOLD ON THE AREA AS AN
AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY SLIDES OVER THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP TO THE UPPER 70S
AND NEAR 80F THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE TO BE MORE MILD IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODIFIED, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE'S REIGN WILL BE
QUITE STRONG.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THIS
MORNING, WITH ONLY HIGH UPPER-LEVEL STREAMING OVERHEAD. LATER
THIS MORNING, SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND COULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SCT025-SCT030 FOR THE TIME BEING, BUT WILL REASSESS DURING THE
NEXT TAF CYCLE IF PREVAILING BKN MVFR CIGS ARE NECESSARY. NNE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS POSSIBLE (HIGHEST AT
THE COASTAL SITES) THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE STARTING TO RELAX
TO 15-25 KT.
OUTLOOK: PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING FOR ALL MARINE ZONES.
- DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS AND INCREASING NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED,
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, PRIMARILY DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT N OF
THE REGION AS TROPICAL CYCLONES HUMBERTO AND IMELDA MOVE WELL
OFFSHORE. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN, MOUTH
OF CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND THE CURRITUCK SOUND.
- FOLLOW THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
REGARDING THE PROGRESS OF HUMBERTO AND IMELDA.
AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW TROPICAL CYCLONE
IMELDA TRAVELING EAST OFF THE COAST OF FL, HUMBERTO WELL OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA IS
BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
ALL OF THESE FEATURES HAS ALLOWED FOR ELEVATED WINDS OVER THE LOCAL
MARINE AREA TODAY. LATEST OBS INDICATE NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25KT. BUOYS SHOW SEAS OF 7 TO 9FT, WAVES OF 2 TO 3FT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES.
NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO TOMORROW. CAA FROM THE COOL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH AID THE ALREADY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN ACCELERATING WINDS. EXPECTING WINDS TO PEAK WED MORNING
WITH ~30KT OVER COASTAL WATERS, MOUTH OF THE BAY, AND CURRITUCK
SOUND (GUSTS TO 40KT) AND 20 TO 25KT (GUSTS AROUND 30KT) IN THE BAY
AND RIVERS. GALE WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS,
MOUTH OF THE BAY, AND CURRITUCK SOUND LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 10-12FT THROUGH MID DAY TOMORROW. WAVES WILL BE
5-6FT IN THE LOWER BAY, 2-4FT ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL STEADILY
DIMINISH STARTING TOMORROW EVENING AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS WEAKEN
AND MOVE FURTHER FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH. BY
THURSDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED, BUT DOWN TO 15-25KT.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL GIVEN THE ONSHORE WINDS AND WILL ONLY BE
DOWN TO 8-10FT BY THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE A BIT FASTER TO
DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THAT HIGH REALLY SETTLES IN.
STILL OUT OF THE NE FRIDAY, BUT DOWN TO 10-15KT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT THE REMAINING SWELL COMBINED WITH
CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY MEAN SCAS FOR SEAS 5FT+ THROUGH
SATURDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...
TIDAL DEPARTURES REMAIN MINIMAL WITH NO COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY WED. AFTER THAT, EXPECT ANOMALIES TO STEADILY
INCREASE BY ~1.5 FT WITH TIDE CYCLES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WED
NIGHT, HIGHEST ACROSS THE LOWER BAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
NE WINDS AND WAVE ACTION/INCREASING SEAS (DUE TO BOTH WIND WAVES AND
SWELL).
THE LATEST ETSS CONTINUES TO SHOW A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WED/THU FOR MOST OF OUR TIDAL SITES, WITH THE
HIGHEST WATER LEVELS OCCURRING DURING THE WED AFTN/EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE IN THE MIDDLE/LOWER BAY AND OCEAN (WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN THE
UPPER BAY ON THU). NOTE THAT THE HIGHEST ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER BAY/TIDAL JAMES. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE TIDE
FORECAST FROM THIS MORNING'S FORECAST PACKAGE. THE LATEST FORECAST
HAS MOST SITES CRESTING WELL INTO MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS, WITH
JAMESTOWN/SMITHFIELD, LYNNHAVEN, AND JAMESTOWN HAVING THE BEST
CHANCE TO EXCEED MODERATE THRESHOLDS BY A TENTH OR TWO WITH THE HIGH
TIDE CYCLE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN DOING MORE
THAN BARELY TOUCHING MODERATE AT JUST A FEW SITES. DID GO AHEAD AND
ISSUE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR MINOR FLOODING, THOUGH, FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF WINDMILL POINT (INCLUDING THE TIDAL JAMES AND YORK RIVERS)
SINCE THE PEAK HIGH TIDE IS IN A LITTLE OVER 24 HOURS NOW. ANOTHER
COUPLE OF CYCLES OF MAINLY MINOR FLOODING IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST AREAS LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BISHOP'S HEAD MAY APPROACH MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLD ON THU,
AS WINDS DIMINISH AND WATER POTENTIALLY GETS STUCK IN THE CHES
BAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ102.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR VAZ078-084>086-100-523.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR VAZ082-083-089-090-518-520.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR VAZ093-095>098-524-525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631-
638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ632.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-634-650-
652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ635>637.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/NB
NEAR TERM...KMC/RMM
SHORT TERM...KMC/NB
LONG TERM...KMC/NB
AVIATION...RMM/NB
MARINE...AC/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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