058
FXUS61 KAKQ 010744
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HURRICANE IMELDA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MID TO LATE WEEK WITH COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER RETURNING. A WARM-UP IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 344 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 25-35
MPH ARE EXPECTED.
HURRICANE IMELDA HAS MADE HER TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND IS
HEADED TOWARDS BERMUDA, WHILE A WEAKENING HUMBERTO IS ALSO MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST AND NEARING A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CLOUD
SHIELD FROM IMELDA STILL EXTENDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING,
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION AND THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
HIGH AND THE SYSTEMS REMAINS TIGHT. WHILE WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED
INLAND, COASTAL AREAS ARE OBSERVING WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH THIS
MORNING. THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT IN DRIER, COOLER AIR OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS, WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 60S (INLAND) TO THE
LOWER 70S (ALONG THE COAST) AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.
AS IMELDA CONTINUES HER TREK FURTHER OUT INTO THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC TODAY, THE EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AT LEAST
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER ALONG THE COAST, BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA,
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTENED BETWEEN THE HIGH
TO OUR NORTH AND TROPICAL CYCLONES. WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH ARE
EXPECTED INLAND, WITH GUSTS OF 25 MPH TO AS HIGH AS 40 MPH POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST. TODAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES OF AROUND OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN
THE PIEDMONT AND IN THE 50S TO THE EAST. THIS COULD BE THE MOST
OPTIMAL NIGHT IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE
PIEDMONT, THOUGH IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON IF WINDS DECOUPLE AND ALLOW
AREAS TO RADIATE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 344 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BREEZES START TO DIMINISH THURSDAY, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL EXTEND INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO PUMP IN A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F
THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL FINALLY START TO COME DOWN ON THURSDAY AS IMELDA
MOVES WELL AWAY FROM THE U.S. AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. THE HIGH TO
OUR NORTH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWARDS AND EJECTS INTO THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC OFF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 344 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE GRADUALLY SLIDES OVER THE EAST COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID-
UPPER 70S SATURDAY AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE BETWEEN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
INLAND TO THE AROUND 60 AT THE COAST. MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODIFIED, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THIS
MORNING, WITH ONLY HIGH UPPER-LEVEL STREAMING OVERHEAD. LATER
THIS MORNING, SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND COULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SCT025-SCT030 FOR THE TIME BEING, BUT WILL REASSESS DURING THE
NEXT TAF CYCLE IF PREVAILING BKN MVFR CIGS ARE NECESSARY. NNE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS POSSIBLE (HIGHEST AT
THE COASTAL SITES) THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE STARTING TO RELAX
TO 15-25 KT.
OUTLOOK: PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING FOR ALL MARINE ZONES.
- DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS AND INCREASING NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED,
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, PRIMARILY DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT N OF
THE REGION AS TROPICAL CYCLONES HUMBERTO AND IMELDA MOVE WELL
OFFSHORE. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN, MOUTH
OF CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND THE CURRITUCK SOUND.
- FOLLOW THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
REGARDING THE PROGRESS OF HUMBERTO AND IMELDA.
AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW TROPICAL CYCLONE
IMELDA TRAVELING EAST OFF THE COAST OF FL, HUMBERTO WELL OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF CANADA IS
BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
ALL OF THESE FEATURES HAS ALLOWED FOR ELEVATED WINDS OVER THE LOCAL
MARINE AREA TODAY. LATEST OBS INDICATE NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25KT. BUOYS SHOW SEAS OF 7 TO 9FT, WAVES OF 2 TO 3FT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES.
NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO TOMORROW. CAA FROM THE COOL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH AID THE ALREADY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN ACCELERATING WINDS. EXPECTING WINDS TO PEAK WED MORNING
WITH ~30KT OVER COASTAL WATERS, MOUTH OF THE BAY, AND CURRITUCK
SOUND (GUSTS TO 40KT) AND 20 TO 25KT (GUSTS AROUND 30KT) IN THE BAY
AND RIVERS. GALE WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS,
MOUTH OF THE BAY, AND CURRITUCK SOUND LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 10-12FT THROUGH MID DAY TOMORROW. WAVES WILL BE
5-6FT IN THE LOWER BAY, 2-4FT ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL STEADILY
DIMINISH STARTING TOMORROW EVENING AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS WEAKEN
AND MOVE FURTHER FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH. BY
THURSDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED, BUT DOWN TO 15-25KT.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL GIVEN THE ONSHORE WINDS AND WILL ONLY BE
DOWN TO 8-10FT BY THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE A BIT FASTER TO
DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THAT HIGH REALLY SETTLES IN.
STILL OUT OF THE NE FRIDAY, BUT DOWN TO 10-15KT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT THE REMAINING SWELL COMBINED WITH
CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY MEAN SCAS FOR SEAS 5FT+ THROUGH
SATURDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...
TIDAL DEPARTURES REMAIN MINIMAL WITH NO COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY WED. AFTER THAT, EXPECT ANOMALIES TO STEADILY
INCREASE BY ~1.5 FT WITH TIDE CYCLES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WED
NIGHT, HIGHEST ACROSS THE LOWER BAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
NE WINDS AND WAVE ACTION/INCREASING SEAS (DUE TO BOTH WIND WAVES AND
SWELL).
THE LATEST ETSS CONTINUES TO SHOW A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WED/THU FOR MOST OF OUR TIDAL SITES, WITH THE
HIGHEST WATER LEVELS OCCURRING DURING THE WED AFTN/EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE IN THE MIDDLE/LOWER BAY AND OCEAN (WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN THE
UPPER BAY ON THU). NOTE THAT THE HIGHEST ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER BAY/TIDAL JAMES. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE TIDE
FORECAST FROM THIS MORNING'S FORECAST PACKAGE. THE LATEST FORECAST
HAS MOST SITES CRESTING WELL INTO MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS, WITH
JAMESTOWN/SMITHFIELD, LYNNHAVEN, AND JAMESTOWN HAVING THE BEST
CHANCE TO EXCEED MODERATE THRESHOLDS BY A TENTH OR TWO WITH THE HIGH
TIDE CYCLE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN DOING MORE
THAN BARELY TOUCHING MODERATE AT JUST A FEW SITES. DID GO AHEAD AND
ISSUE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR MINOR FLOODING, THOUGH, FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF WINDMILL POINT (INCLUDING THE TIDAL JAMES AND YORK RIVERS)
SINCE THE PEAK HIGH TIDE IS IN A LITTLE OVER 24 HOURS NOW. ANOTHER
COUPLE OF CYCLES OF MAINLY MINOR FLOODING IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST AREAS LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BISHOP'S HEAD MAY APPROACH MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLD ON THU,
AS WINDS DIMINISH AND WATER POTENTIALLY GETS STUCK IN THE CHES
BAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ025.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ102.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR VAZ075>078-522.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR VAZ082-089-090-093.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR VAZ083-518-520.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR VAZ084>086-099-100-523.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR VAZ095>098-524-525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ632-638.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-634-650-
652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ635>637.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/NB
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...KMC/NB
AVIATION...RMM/NB
MARINE...AC/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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