758
FXUS61 KAKQ 011410
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1010 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HURRICANE IMELDA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MID TO LATE WEEK WITH COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER RETURNING. A WARM-UP IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1010 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY ALONG THE COAST WHERE GUSTS OF 25-35
MPH ARE EXPECTED.
HURRICANE IMELDA HAS MADE HER TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND IS
HEADED TOWARDS BERMUDA, WHILE A WEAKENING HUMBERTO IS ALSO MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST AND NEARING A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CLOUD
SHIELD FROM IMELDA STILL EXTENDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING,
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA EXTENDS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION AND THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
HIGH AND THE SYSTEMS REMAINS TIGHT. COASTAL AREAS ARE OBSERVING
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH THIS MORNING, AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 20
MPH INLAND. THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT IN DRIER, COOLER AIR OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS, WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 60S
(INLAND) TO THE LOWER 70S (ALONG THE COAST) AND DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
AS IMELDA CONTINUES HER TREK FURTHER OUT INTO THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC TODAY, THE EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP AT LEAST
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER ALONG THE COAST, BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD PREVAIL ELSEWHERE BY THIS EVENING. AS THE HIGH BUILDS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP ACROSS THE REGION AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT
REMAINS TIGHTENED BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND TROPICAL
CYCLONES. WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED INLAND, WITH
GUSTS OF 25 MPH TO AS HIGH AS 40 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.
TODAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES OF AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER,
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE
PIEDMONT AND IN THE 50S TO THE EAST. THIS COULD BE THE MOST
OPTIMAL NIGHT IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN
THE PIEDMONT, THOUGH IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON IF WINDS DECOUPLE
AND ALLOW AREAS TO RADIATE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 344 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BREEZES START TO DIMINISH THURSDAY, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL EXTEND INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO PUMP IN A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F
THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL FINALLY START TO COME DOWN ON THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS IMELDA MOVES WELL AWAY FROM THE U.S. AND THE
GRADIENT RELAXES. THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTHWARDS AND EJECTS INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OFF THE
NORTHEAST/MID- ATLANTIC COAST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 344 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE GRADUALLY SLIDES OVER THE EAST COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID-
UPPER 70S SATURDAY AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE BETWEEN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
INLAND TO THE AROUND 60 AT THE COAST. MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODIFIED, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 655 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THIS
MORNING, THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AT PHF
AND ORF. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS MORNING, WIT PERIODS MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN THE
LONGEVITY OF THE MVFR CIGS IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, SO HAVE
MAINTAINED SCT025- SCT030 FOR THE TIME BEING, BUT WILL AMEND IF
THEY BECOME MORE PROLONGED. NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF
20-30 KTS POSSIBLE (HIGHEST AT THE COASTAL SITES) THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE STARTING TO RELAX TO 15-25 KT.
OUTLOOK: PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 410 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY FOR THE EASTERN VA RIVERS
AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. A GALE WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, THE MOUTH OF CHESAPEAKE BAY,
AND THE CURRITUCK SOUND THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ONCE THE
GALE WARNINGS ARE LOWERED, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED OVER THESE AREAS INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
- DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS AND INCREASING NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT N OF THE REGION AS TROPICAL CYCLONES HUMBERTO AND
IMELDA MOVE WELL OFFSHORE.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW NOW-HURRICANE
IMELDA ABOUT 500 NM W-SW OF BERMUDA. MEANWHILE, HURRICANE
HUMBERTO IS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING, AND MOVING E-NE FARTHER OUT TO SEA. STRONG 1032+MB HIGH
PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY, ON CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, RIDGING INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DISTANT TROPICAL
SYSTEMS AND THE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY STRONG AND GUSTY NE WINDS TO THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY, BEFORE WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. LATEST OBS AND BUOY REPORTS REFLECT NE WINDS OF 15 TO
25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT, STRONGEST OVER THE MOUTH OF THE
CHES BAY AND OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST COASTAL ZONES. SEAS ARE 9-12
FT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, 8-10 FT FROM CAPE CHARLES
NORTHWARD. WAVES ARE 2-3 FT ON THE BAY, 3-5 FT AT THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
WATERS, WITH A GALE WARNING OVER THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY, THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE CURRITUCK SOUND.
NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON, AS COOLER, DRIER CANADIAN AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION ON GUSTY NNE WINDS, AIDED BY THE ALREADY-TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECTING WINDS TO PEAK WED MORNING WITH
~30KT OVER COASTAL WATERS, MOUTH OF THE BAY, AND CURRITUCK SOUND
(GUSTS TO 40KT) AND 20 TO 25KT (GUSTS AROUND 30KT) IN THE BAY
AND RIVERS. GALE WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS,
MOUTH OF THE BAY, AND CURRITUCK SOUND LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 10-12FT THROUGH MID DAY TOMORROW. WAVES
WILL BE 5-6FT IN THE LOWER BAY, 2-4FT ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL
STEADILY DIMINISH STARTING TOMORROW EVENING AS THE TROPICAL
SYSTEMS WEAKEN AND MOVE FURTHER FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES SOUTH. BY THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED, SHOULD BE PRIMARILY SCA ACROSS THE
WATERS. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL GIVEN THE ONSHORE WINDS AND
WILL ONLY BE DOWN TO 8-10FT BY THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
A BIT FASTER TO DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THAT HIGH
REALLY SETTLES IN. STILL OUT OF THE NE FRIDAY, BUT DOWN TO
10-15KT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT THE
REMAINING SWELL COMBINED WITH CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LIKELY MEAN SCAS FOR SEAS 5FT+ THROUGH SATURDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 410 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE STEADILY ON THE RISE AS EXPECTED, ALREADY
ON THE ORDER OF 1-1.5 ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL
ANOTHER 0.5 TO FT OF SURGE EXPECTED WITH THE TIDE CYCLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HIGHEST ACROSS THE LOWER BAY DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG NE WINDS AND WAVE ACTION/INCREASING SEAS
(DUE TO BOTH WIND WAVES AND SWELL).
TIDAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY FOR MANY OF OUR TIDAL SITES, WITH THE HIGHEST WATER
LEVELS OCCURRING DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE
THIS EVENING OVER THE LOWER BAY/TIDAL JAMES. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN THE TIDE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY EVENING'S FORECAST PACKAGE.
ANOTHER 2-3 CYCLES OF MAINLY MINOR FLOODING IS THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST AREAS FROM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BISHOP'S HEAD MAY APPROACH MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD
THRESHOLD ON THU, AS WINDS DIMINISH AND WATER POTENTIALLY GETS
STUCK IN THE CHES BAY.
AT SEWELLS POINT, THE 50TH PERCENTILE VALUE PER ETSS FOR THE WED
EVENING TIDE (5.1 FT MLLW) IS JUST ABOVE 5 FT, WITH THE 90TH
PERCENTILE VALUE (5.4 FT MLLW) JUST BELOW THE MODERATE FLOOD
THRESHOLD OF 5.5 FT MLLW. AT JAMESTOWN, 50TH PERCENTILE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON ETSS (4.6 FT), IS JUST ABOVE THE MODERATE
FLOOD THRESHOLD OF 4.5 FT MLLW, WITH THE 90TH PERCENTILE (4.9 FT
MLLW) JUST BELOW THE MAJOR FLOOD THRESHOLD OF 5.0 FT.
WITH THAT IN MIND, REGARDING HEADLINES...THERE IS ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE NOW TO ADD A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING OVER THE UPPER
TIDAL JAMES, GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST ETSS GUIDANCE.
HAVE ALSO ADDED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN CITY
AREA, AS WELL AS THE TIDAL RAPPAHANNOCK AND POTOMAC RIVERS FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES WERE EXTENDED OUT ALONG SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND
THE TIDAL YORK RIVER IN THE WEST POINT AREA.
FINALLY, WHILE THE NE WINDS WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS JUST BELOW
MINOR THRESHOLDS ON THE BAY SIDE OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, BISHOP'S HEAD WILL APPROACH OR PERHAPS EXCEED
MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLD. GIVEN THAT THE REST OF THE SITES
ALONG THE TIDAL WICOMICO AND CHOPTANK RIVERS REMAIN BELOW MINOR
THRESHOLD, HAVE ADDED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DORCHESTER
COUNTY FOR NOW.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ025.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ102.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR VAZ075>078-522.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR VAZ082-089-090-093.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR VAZ083-518-520.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR VAZ084>086-099-100-523.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ095>098-
524-525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ632-638.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-634-650-
652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ635>637.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/NB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...KMC/NB
AVIATION...NB
MARINE...AC/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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