498
FXUS61 KAKQ 012340
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
740 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 740 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- CONTINUED BREEZY ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, BUT
OTHERWISE PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTED ~1032MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER QB THIS EVENING, EXTENDING S INTO THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE, HURRICANE IMELDA IS TRACKING ENE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS IS CREATING A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH A NE WIND GUSTING UP TO 25-35 MPH TOWARD AND
ALONG THE COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S TONIGHT AS
IMELDA MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. CLEARING AND DECOUPLING SHOULD
ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER THE PIEDMONT
TONIGHT, WITH UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN, AND UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST
WHERE A 10-15 MPH NE WIND AND CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ~1032MB AND BECOMES CENTERED
NEAR CAPE COD THURSDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70F ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY, BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST WITH A NE WIND GUSTING TO
20-25 MPH, BUT OVERALL, LESS WIND THAN TODAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUMP IN A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S, WITH MID 50S TO NEAR 60F AT THE COAST.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F INLAND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH MID 50S TO AROUND 60F AT THE COAST.
HIGHS SATURDAY MODERATE INTO THE MID 70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 344 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS AN AMPLIFIED
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY SLIDES OVER THE EAST COAST.
HIGHS SUNDAY WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AFTER MORNING LOWS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. EVEN WARMER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME
MODIFIED, DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 735 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SCT CU ACROSS SE VA/NE NC WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SE THROUGH ~6Z
THU BEFORE BUILDING BACK INLAND AFTER 6Z. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY VFR INLAND WITH MVFR OR VFR CIGS POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE
COAST ACROSS SE VA/NE NC LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THU. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THAT SCT CU ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN BKN/OVC
MVFR CIGS. THEREFORE KEPT SCT 3000-4000 FT CIGS FOR NOW IN THE
TAFS. ADDITIONALLY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
TONIGHT INTO THU. HOWEVER, NE WINDS 12-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KT WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AT ECG AND ORF THROUGH THU
AFTERNOON. WILL NOTE THAT FEWER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AT ECG
TONIGHT COMPARED TO ORF. FARTHER INLAND, NE WINDS DIMINISH TO ~5
KT TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 5-10 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT THU.
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE AREA (BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT).
MARINE
AS OF 255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS DUE TO ELEVATED NE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 5-10FT. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.
- GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND, THEN
PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW TROPICAL SYSTEM
IMELDA WELL OFFSHORE TO THE SE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE N. NE WINDS ARE ELEVATED DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES AS WELL AS CAA OVER THE WARM WATERS. LATEST
OBS INDICATE WINDS OVER COASTAL WATERS AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY ARE
AT ~25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT. SINCE OBS HAVE BEEN UNDER GALE WARNING
THRESHOLDS FOR A FEW HOURS, ALL GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED
AND REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. OVER THE BAY, CURRITUCK
SOUND, AND RIVERS, WINDS ARE ~20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT. SCAS ARE
STILL IN EFFECT FOR THESE WATERS. SEAS ARE 10-12FT BASED ON LATEST
BUOY OBS, WAVES 2-4FT.
REMAINING BREEZY OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW, THOUGH NOT AS WINDY AS
TODAY. EXPECTING THE NE WINDS TO BE DOWN TO 15-20KT IN THE BAY AND
20-23KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY THURS MORNING. WINDS ARE QUICKER
TO DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THAT HIGH PRESSURE REALLY
SETTLES IN. WINDS SHOULD BE DOWN TO 10-15KT BY LATE THURS NIGHT,
THEN 5-10KT BY FRIDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO DIMINISH DUE
TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING SWELL FROM THE
OFFSHORE TROPICAL SYSTEMS. EXPECTING SEAS UPWARDS OF 9FT IN THE
COASTAL ZONES THURS EVENING AND 5-7FT FRIDAY MORNING. WILL
LIKELY SEE 5FT+ SEAS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE WEEKEND. FOR THIS
REASON, DID GO AHEAD AND SET THE END TIME OF THE COASTAL WATER
SCAS TO SATURDAY MORNING WITH EXTENSIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH MORE
PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE STEADILY ON THE RISE AS EXPECTED, ALREADY
ON THE ORDER OF 1-1.5 ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL
ANOTHER 0.5 TO FT OF SURGE EXPECTED WITH THE TIDE CYCLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HIGHEST ACROSS THE LOWER BAY DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG NE WINDS AND WAVE ACTION/INCREASING SEAS
(DUE TO BOTH WIND WAVES AND SWELL).
TIDAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY FOR MANY OF OUR TIDAL SITES, WITH THE HIGHEST WATER
LEVELS OCCURRING DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE
THIS EVENING OVER THE LOWER BAY/TIDAL JAMES. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN THE TIDE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY EVENING'S FORECAST PACKAGE.
ANOTHER 2-3 CYCLES OF MAINLY MINOR FLOODING IS THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS MOST AREAS FROM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. BISHOP'S HEAD MAY APPROACH MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD
THRESHOLD ON THU, AS WINDS DIMINISH AND WATER POTENTIALLY GETS
STUCK IN THE CHES BAY.
AT SEWELLS POINT, THE 50TH PERCENTILE VALUE PER ETSS FOR THE WED
EVENING TIDE (5.1 FT MLLW) IS JUST ABOVE 5 FT, WITH THE 90TH
PERCENTILE VALUE (5.4 FT MLLW) JUST BELOW THE MODERATE FLOOD
THRESHOLD OF 5.5 FT MLLW. AT JAMESTOWN, 50TH PERCENTILE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON ETSS (4.6 FT), IS JUST ABOVE THE MODERATE
FLOOD THRESHOLD OF 4.5 FT MLLW, WITH THE 90TH PERCENTILE (4.9 FT
MLLW) JUST BELOW THE MAJOR FLOOD THRESHOLD OF 5.0 FT.
WITH THAT IN MIND, REGARDING HEADLINES...MAINTAINING A COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING OVER THE UPPER TIDAL JAMES, GIVEN THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND LATEST ETSS GUIDANCE. ALSO MAINTAINING A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN CITY AREA, AS WELL AS THE TIDAL
RAPPAHANNOCK AND POTOMAC RIVERS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE, COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WERE EXTENDED OUT
ALONG SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND THE TIDAL YORK RIVER IN THE
WEST POINT AREA.
FINALLY, WHILE THE NE WINDS WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS JUST BELOW
MINOR THRESHOLDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAY SIDE OF THE MD EASTERN
SHORE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BISHOP'S HEAD AND CRISFIELD WILL
APPROACH OR PERHAPS EXCEED MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLD. DID
EXPAND THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT TO INCLUDE WICOMICO AND
SOMERSET GIVEN THAT CRISFIELD IS NOW EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR
FLOOD.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ075>078-
522.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ082-
089-090-093.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ083-518-
520.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ084>086-099-100-523.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ095>098-
524-525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ632-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/NB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/RMM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/NB
LONG TERM...AJZ/NB
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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