984
FXUS61 KAKQ 020648
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
248 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MID TO LATE WEEK WITH COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER RETURNING. A WARM-UP IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 740 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- CONTINUED BREEZY ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, BUT
OTHERWISE PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTED ~1032MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER QB THIS EVENING, EXTENDING S INTO THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE, HURRICANE IMELDA IS TRACKING ENE
WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS IS CREATING A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH A NE WIND GUSTING UP TO 25-35 MPH TOWARD AND
ALONG THE COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S TONIGHT AS
IMELDA MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. CLEARING AND DECOUPLING SHOULD
ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S OVER THE PIEDMONT
TONIGHT, WITH UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN, AND UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST
WHERE A 10-15 MPH NE WIND AND CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ~1032MB AND BECOMES CENTERED
NEAR CAPE COD THURSDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70F ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY, BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST WITH A NE WIND GUSTING TO
20-25 MPH, BUT OVERALL, LESS WIND THAN TODAY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUMP IN A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S, WITH MID 50S TO NEAR 60F AT THE COAST.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F INLAND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH MID 50S TO AROUND 60F AT THE COAST.
HIGHS SATURDAY MODERATE INTO THE MID 70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 344 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS AN AMPLIFIED
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY SLIDES OVER THE EAST COAST.
HIGHS SUNDAY WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AFTER MORNING LOWS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. EVEN WARMER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME
MODIFIED, DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 126 AM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE, WITH POTENTIALLY A SCT CLOUD DECK MOVING
ACROSS ECG/PHF/ORF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATER THIS MORNING, SCT
CIGS WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS, WITH
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY LOWERED
MVFR CIGS, SO HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-25 KTS (MAINLY AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GUSTS DROP
OFF IN THE EVENING.
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE AREA (BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT).
MARINE
AS OF 250 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS DUE TO ELEVATED NE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-10FT.
- SCAS FOR THE LOWER CHES BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND THE
CURRITUCK SOUND LOOK TO COME DOWN LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
- GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND, THEN
PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LATEST WEATHER ANALYSIS REVEALS 1032+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH OF QC/NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE
CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING. TROPICAL CYCLONE IMELDA WAS
VISIBLE ON EARLY MORNING IR/WV SATELLITE NEAR BERMUDA, AND WILL
MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE ISLAND THROUGH TODAY. LOCALLY E-NE WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED, BUT HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS, AS THE GRADIENT SLOWLY SLACKENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
IMELDA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS. SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE, COMPRISED OF MAINLY E 10-12
SECOND SWELL. WAVES ARE 1-2 FT ON THE UPPER BAY, RIVERS AND
SOUND, WITH 2-6 FT IN THE LOWER BAY, HIGHEST AT THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF NEW
POINT COMFORT, BUT CONTINUE FOR THE LOWER CHES BAY, ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER. THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN IN SCA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
MAINLY FOR SEAS. THE CURRITUCK SOUND, LOWER JAMES RIVER AND
ADJACENT BAY ZONE SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
REMAINING BREEZY THIS MORNING, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE DAY, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY SLACKENS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. NE WINDS 10-15 KT NORTH,
15-20 KT SOUTHERN WATERS, WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT THIS MORNING
SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. THAT TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS SHOULD BE
DOWN TO 10-15KT TONIGHT, THEN 5-10KT BY FRIDAY EVENING. SEAS
WILL BE HELD UP MAINLY DUE TO THE LINGERING SWELL FROM THE
OFFSHORE TROPICAL SYSTEMS AND ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECTING SEAS
STILL IN THE 7-10FT RANGE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, SUBSIDING TO 5-8FT BY FRIDAY MORNING. SCA SHOULD FINALLY
COME DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
MORE BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE JUST
OFFSHORE.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 900 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE RISEN TO 1-2 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
THIS EVENING, WITH WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, TIDAL RIVERS, AND ATLANTIC COAST.
LOCALIZED MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AT JAMESTOWN AND MAY
OCCUR AT BISHOP'S HEAD/LEWISETTA/TAPPAHANNOCK LATER THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN WITH THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
ADDED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE BAY SIDE OF THE MD
EASTERN SHORE (THROUGH 4 AM FRIDAY AM). WATER LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO CREST AT ~3.7 FT MLLW AT CAMBRIDGE, BISHOP'S HEAD,
AND CRISFIELD WITH THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. OTHERWISE,
HAVE MAINTAINED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING OVER THE UPPER TIDAL
JAMES WITH COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES IN MOST OTHER TIDAL
LOCATIONS. WATER LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND
LOWER BAY LATER TONIGHT, THURSDAY, AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
REMAIN STEADY OR RISE A BIT IN THE UPPER BAY AS WINDS DECREASE
AND WATER BECOMES TRAPPED. ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE BAY EXCEPT ACCOMACK/NORTHAMPTON
COUNTIES. MAINLY NUISANCE FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE ATLANTIC
COAST WITH SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDES, SO NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES HERE (ALTHOUGH STATEMENTS ARE
POSSIBLE).
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ075>078-
522.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ082-
084>086-089-090-093-523.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ083-
518-520.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ095>098-524-525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632-
638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/NB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/RMM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/NB
LONG TERM...AJZ/NB
AVIATION...NB
MARINE...AC/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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