218
FXUS61 KAKQ 021915
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
315 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SETTLES
SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY. A WARM-UP IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- VERY PLEASANT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH LOW HUMIDITY.
AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS 1032MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH
BASES BETWEEN 4000-5000 FT. STILL RATHER BREEZY NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FROM VA BEACH SOUTHWARD WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS COMPRESSED. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT
THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS INLAND AND PERHAPS A FEW
MORE CLOUDS HANGING ON NEAR THE COAST. WINDS BECOME LIGHT INLAND
TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT BREEZE CONTINUING NEAR THE COAST. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL WITH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOW 50S NEAR THE
COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND.
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN RESULTING IN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(HIGHEST S). CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT RESULT
IN LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 50S NEAR
THE WATER. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPS
RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S (AGAIN HIGHEST S) WITH HIGH
PRESSURE NUDGING OFF THE COAST LATE. NOT QUITE AS COOL SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, THOUGH SOME UPPER 40S
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COOLER RURAL LOCATIONS NW OF RICHMOND AND SOME
LOW 60S ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST IN NE NC AND UP INTO THE VA
BEACH VICINITY. WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OFFSHORE AND SE LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOP. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONTINUED WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK, WITH A CHANCE FOR
RAIN MIDWEEK AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN THE SIMILAR TO THE
WEEKEND WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE
SURFACE, BUT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA. THIS WILL SHOVE THE HIGH OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST, WHICH WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, LIKELY REACHING NEAR 80F INTO
THE LOWER 80S. THE NEXT BEST SHOT AT RAIN WILL BE LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS A SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY...
1034MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTN.
VFR WITH SCT-BKN SC WITH BASES OF 3.5-4.5KFT. THE WIND IS NE
8-12KT, WITH GUSTS TO ~20KT AT ORF AND ECG. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE N. CLOUDS DIMINISH TONIGHT,
WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTN. THE
WIND BECOMES VERY LIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST TONIGHT, BUT REMAINS
NE 5-10KT AT ORF AND ECG. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE E TO NE
5-10KT FRIDAY AT MOST SITES, AND 8-12KT AT ORF AND ECG.
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION, WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ANY EARLY MORNING SHALLOW GROUND FOG.
MARINE
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GRADUALLY IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
- BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE, CENTERED TO THE NE, BUILDS INTO THE REGION. STILL HAVE
ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA TO SUPPORT BREEZY NE WINDS OF
15-20KT OVER THE LOWER BAY AND COASTAL WATERS (10-15KT ELSEWHERE).
SEAS ARE STILL RATHER ELEVATED AT 7 TO 9FT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS
AND UP TO 11FT IN THE NC WATERS. WAVES ARE AT 1 TO 3FT. SCAS ARE
STILL IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS, THE LOWER BAY AND LOWER
JAMES, AND CURRITUCK SOUND AS OF 3PM.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THAT HIGH BUILDS SOUTH
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS. BY TOMORROW MORNING, EXPECTING NE
WINDS TO BE DOWN TO 5-10KT OVER MOST OF THE WATERS AND UP TO 15KT
OVER THE NC COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH GIVEN THE
ONSHORE WINDS AND ANY LINGERING SWELL FROM THE ARTISTS FORMERLY
KNOWN AS IMELDA AND HUMBERTO. EXPECTING SEAS TO STILL BE UP AT 5-7FT
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS REALLY DROP OFF TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO ~5KT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH. SCAS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH, DUE TO THE SEAS BEING OVER 5FT.
NORTHERN SEAS LIKELY DROP BELOW 5FT SAT MORNING, BUT SOUTHERN WATERS
LINGER AT 5FT INTO THE EVENING. BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...
STARTING TO SEE TIDAL ANOMALIES LEVEL OFF OR DROP AT MOST
SITES, WHICH LINES UP WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS AND STRONG EBB TIDE
AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY THAT OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY. THAT BEING
SAID, STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AT
MANY OF THE SITES WITH TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE. DID NOT MAKE MANY
CHANGES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES PREVIOUSLY ISSUED, AND
THESE WILL GET US THROUGH THIS EVENING'S CYCLE. ONLY CHANGE WAS
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC/NORTHERN NECK FOR
THIS EVENING AFTER THE WARNING THERE EXPIRED. SHOULD BE DONE
WITH COASTAL FLOODING (FOR NOW ANYWAY) IN THE LOWER BAY AFTER
TONIGHT, BUT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LOOKS TO LINGER FOR POINTS N
OF WINDMILL POINT INTO TOMORROW. DID NOT ISSUE ANYTHING FOR
TOMORROW'S TIDES, HOWEVER, SINCE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THAT WILL PLAY OUT GIVEN THE EBB TIDE
TODAY. WILL BE LOOKING TO SEE HOW TONIGHT'S TIDE GOES BEFORE
ISSUING ADDITIONAL HEADLINES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ075>078-
522.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ082-
084>086-089-090-093-523.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ083-
518-520.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ095>098-524-525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632-
638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...RHR/NB
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR/NB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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