281
FXUS61 KAKQ 030547
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
147 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GRADUALLY MOVES
OFFSHORE LATER TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARM-UP IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND, WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT LIKELY APPROACHES BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 140 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS TODAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING, ~1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED JUST
OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S INLAND AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ALONG THE
COAST (DUE TO A CONTINUED ONSHORE BREEZE AND SOME LINGERING
CLOUDS). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL WITH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOW 50S NEAR THE
COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SE TODAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY (LOW TO MID 70S). CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN CONTROL. LOWS TONIGHT DROP BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 50 CLOSER TO THE COAST. PATCHY
FOG MAY TRY TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
ALONG AND WEST OF I-95.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND.
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN RESULTING IN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(HIGHEST S). CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT RESULT
IN LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 50S NEAR
THE WATER. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPS
RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S (AGAIN HIGHEST S) WITH HIGH
PRESSURE NUDGING OFF THE COAST LATE. NOT QUITE AS COOL SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, THOUGH SOME UPPER 40S
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COOLER RURAL LOCATIONS NW OF RICHMOND AND SOME
LOW 60S ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST IN NE NC AND UP INTO THE VA
BEACH VICINITY. WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OFFSHORE AND SE LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOP. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONTINUED WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK, WITH A CHANCE FOR
RAIN MIDWEEK AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN THE SIMILAR TO THE
WEEKEND WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE
SURFACE, BUT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA. THIS WILL SHOVE THE HIGH OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST, WHICH WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, LIKELY REACHING NEAR 80F INTO
THE LOWER 80S. THE NEXT BEST SHOT AT RAIN WILL BE LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS A SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 140 AM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE TAF SITES TO START OFF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ORF (AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST) WHERE THERE IS SOME LINGERING STRATO-CU (~4000
FT). WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE INLAND, AND NE ~5-10
KNOTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. FEW TO SCT AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPS
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES ~4000 FT. WINDS REMAIN ~5 TO 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL SITES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FURTHER INLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL.
OUTLOOK: PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION, WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ANY EARLY MORNING SHALLOW GROUND FOG.
MARINE
AS OF 740 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY, LIKELY CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
- GRADUALLY IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
- BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED TO THE NE, BUILDS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. STILL HAVE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA TO
SUPPORT BREEZY NE WINDS ~15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT OVER MOST
OF THE LOCAL WATERS WITH 15-20 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AT 6 TO 8 FT FOR MOST OF THE
WATERS AND UP TO 10 FT ACROSS THE NC WATERS. WAVES WERE AT 1 TO
3 FT ACROSS MOST OF THE CHES BAY WITH 3-5 FT WAVES AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY. SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 10 AM FRI FOR THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY GIVEN LINGERING 3-5 FT WAVES. OTHERWISE, SCAS
REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SAT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THAT HIGH BUILDS SOUTH
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. BY TOMORROW MORNING,
EXPECTING NE WINDS TO BE DOWN TO 5-10 KT OVER MOST OF THE
WATERS AND UP TO 15 KT OVER THE NC COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE
SLOW TO DIMINISH GIVEN THE ONSHORE WINDS AND ANY LINGERING
SWELL FROM THE ARTISTS FORMERLY KNOWN AS IMELDA AND HUMBERTO.
EXPECTING SEAS TO STILL BE UP AT 5-7 FT TOMORROW MORNING (WITH
6-8 FT SEAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS). WINDS
DROP OFF LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO
~5 KT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH. SCAS MAY
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH, DUE TO THE SEAS BEING OVER 5 FT.
NORTHERN SEAS LIKELY DROP BELOW 5 FT SAT MORNING, BUT SOUTHERN
WATERS LINGER AT 5 FT INTO THE EVENING. BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GIVEN LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 10-11 SECONDS, NE WINDS, AND
NEARSHORE WAVES OF 4-6 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES AND 5-7 FT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES (PERHAPS UP TO 8 FT EARLY FRI
MORNING ACROSS THE NC BEACHES), A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
WEEKEND, THEY STILL REMAIN ELEVATED (> 4 FT). THAT PLUS A LONG
PERIOD SWELL OF 10-13 SECONDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED (LIKELY HIGH) RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 725 PM EDT THURSDAY...
STARTING TO SEE TIDAL ANOMALIES LEVEL OFF AT MOST SITES, WHICH
LINES UP WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS AND STRONG EBB TIDE AT THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY THAT OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY. THAT BEING SAID, STILL
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AT MANY OF THE
SITES WITH TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE. ADDED WESTERN ESSEX COUNTY TO
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AND ALSO EXTENDED A FEW COUNTIES BY
A COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE, COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE. SHOULD BE DONE WITH
COASTAL FLOODING (FOR NOW ANYWAY) IN THE LOWER BAY AFTER
TONIGHT, BUT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LOOKS TO LINGER FOR POINTS N
OF WINDMILL POINT INTO TOMORROW. DID NOT ISSUE ANYTHING FOR
TOMORROW'S TIDES, HOWEVER, SINCE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THAT WILL PLAY OUT GIVEN THE EBB TIDE
TODAY. WILL BE LOOKING TO SEE HOW TONIGHT'S TIDE GOES BEFORE
ISSUING ADDITIONAL HEADLINES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ021>023.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ075-077.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ076-078-521-522.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AC/RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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