116
FXUS61 KAKQ 031419
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1019 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GRADUALLY MOVES
OFFSHORE LATER TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARM-UP IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND, WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT LIKELY APPROACHES BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1015 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SE TODAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE
INCREASED INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 F. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. CALM WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN CONTROL. LOWS TONIGHT DROP BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 50 CLOSER TO THE COAST. PATCHY
FOG MAY TRY TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
ALONG AND WEST OF I-95.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- REMAINING DRY AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND.
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH BUT LINGERS OFF THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S (HIGHEST
S). NOT QUITE AS COOL SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO TAKE ON A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, THOUGH
SOME UPPER 40S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COOLER RURAL LOCATIONS NW OF
RICHMOND AND SOME LOW 60S ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST IN NE NC
AND UP INTO THE VA BEACH VICINITY. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES
ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFFSHORE AND SE LOW
LEVEL WINDS DEVELOP. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED
WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT FALL
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CONTINUED WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK, WITH A CHANCE FOR
RAIN MIDWEEK AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN THE SIMILAR TO THE
WEEKEND WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE
SURFACE, BUT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA. THIS WILL SHOVE THE HIGH OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST, WHICH WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, LIKELY REACHING NEAR 80F INTO
THE LOWER 80S. THE NEXT BEST SHOT AT RAIN WILL BE LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 650 AM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE TAF SITES TO START OFF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE INLAND,
AND NE ~5-10 KNOTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. FEW TO SCT AFTERNOON CU
DEVELOPS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES ~4000 FT. WINDS REMAIN
~5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL SITES AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FURTHER INLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN
CONTROL. PATCHY FOG MAY TRY TO FORM LATE TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION, WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ANY EARLY MORNING SHALLOW GROUND FOG.
MARINE
AS OF 310 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY, LIKELY CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
- GRADUALLY IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
- BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR NE THIS
MORNING, AND IS SLOWLY SLIDING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN WATERS HAVE RESPONDED TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND HAVE
DROPPED CONSIDERABLY. MEANWHILE, THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS REMAINS TIGHTER AND WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED THERE.
MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS ARE RECORDING WINDS OF 5-10 KTS IN THE
NORTHERN WATERS, AND UP TO 15 KTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS
OF 6-7 FT ARE ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING, BUT SEAS OFF THE NC COAST ARE STRUGGLING TO DROP BELOW 8
FT. WAVES IN THE BAY RANGE FROM 1-3 FT, WITH 3-4 FT WAVES LINGERING
AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ALL COASTAL WATERS AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE DOWN THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST UNTIL IT IS ATOP THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE
REGION BY TONIGHT, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR
LESS. THE HIGH WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS WILL
PREVAIL. BY MONDAY AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL START TO SHOVE THE
HIGH INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AND WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS
WILL BE MID-LATE NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, WITH
POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO STRONG CAA. LINGERING SEAS AND SWELL FROM
THE COMBINATION OF HUMBERTO AND IMELDA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW 5 FT IN ALL COASTAL WATERS BY
SATURDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 3-4 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE BRIEFLY SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT MID-LATE
WEEK. WAVES WILL QUICKLY DROP TO 1-2 FT TONIGHT AS WINDS RELAX,
REMAINING IN THIS RANGE THROUGH MID WEEK.
GIVEN LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 10-11 SECONDS, NE WINDS, AND NEARSHORE
WAVES OF 4-6 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES AND 5-7 FT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BEACHES (PERHAPS UP TO 8 FT EARLY FRI MORNING ACROSS THE NC
BEACHES), A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.
WHILE SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND, THEY STILL REMAIN
ELEVATED (> 4 FT). THAT, PLUS A LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 10-13 SECONDS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WILL ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED (LIKELY
HIGH) RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 310 AM EDT FRIDAY...
MOST OF THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE DROPPED OFF DUE TO TIDAL
ANOMALIES LEVELING OFF AS WINDS START TO DECREASE. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING WILL LINGER FOR POINTS NORTH OF WINDMILL POINT INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON, SO HAVE CONTINUED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR
THESE AREAS AS WELL AS FOR THE AREA NEAR BISHOPS HEAD, MD. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TIDES TO SEE IF ADDITIONAL HEADLINES
ARE NEEDED OR IF THEY CAN BE CONVERTED TO A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT FOR TONIGHT'S TIDE. MEANWHILE, THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR WICOMICO AND SOMERSET COUNTIES HAS BEEN CONVERTED
TO A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT, AS SOME NUISANCE FLOODING LOOKS TO
LINGER THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ021.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ075-077.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ076-
078-521-522.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB/SW
SHORT TERM...AJB/RHR
LONG TERM...AJB/RHR
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...RMM/NB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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