577
FXUS61 KAKQ 041023
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
623 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GRADUALLY MOVES
OFFSHORE LATER INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARM-UP IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND, WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
STRONG COLD FRONT LIKELY APPROACHES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 250 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS TODAY.
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE INLAND TONIGHT, ALONG WITH CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING, WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS SET-UP HAS PROMOTED OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S, MAKING FOR A CHILLIER SATURDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY, WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. OTHER THAN A WEAK SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST TURNING THE FLOW ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON,
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN
THE THE MID-UPPER 70S WILL LEAD TO A BEAUTIFUL EARLY OCTOBER DAY
TODAY! TONIGHT AGAIN LOOKS ON THE CHILLIER SIDE, WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. PATCHY FOG COULD ALSO BE ON THE TABLE AGAIN
FOR TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 250 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- REMAINING DRY AND COMFORTABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL
SLOWLY MODERATE AS AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY
SLIDES OVER THE EAST COAST AND THE SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODIFIED, DRY CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED AS A RIDGE AXIS BISECTING THE AREA ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUPPRESSED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 F SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ALONG WITH A SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKY. LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 250 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- CONTINUED WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MIDWEEK AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON TUESDAY, DRAGGING AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS OUR AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH WILL PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN, WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN NOW COMING LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL INFLUENCE THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A
DELINEATION OF COOLER (NORTHWEST) AND WARMER (SOUTHEAST)
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
ONLY A PORTION OF AREA. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BREAK THE RAIN-
FREE STREAK FOR MOST AREAS AS IT MOVES THROUGH, IT WILL NOT BE A
PARTICULARLY WET PASSAGE AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AT A GOOD
CLIP THROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 623 AM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, WITH THE COASTAL
TERMINALS LIKELY FEELING THE EFFECTS OF THE SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THIS LIGHT WIND REGIME AND WINDS BECOMING NE.
OUTLOOK: PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION, WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING EARLY MORNING SHALLOW GROUND FOG. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MARINE
AS OF 250 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH RIP RISK CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SEAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY.
- BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EARLY THIS MORNING, ~1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
AREA. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. SEAS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL FROM
THE OFFSHORE TROPICAL SYSTEMS EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS, SEAS ARE GENERALLY RUNNING AROUND 3 TO 4 FT AND 4
TO 6 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE GRADUALLY DRIFTING OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE BECOMING SE (~5 TO 10
KNOTS) SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE WATERS ON LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AM, WITH AT LEAST HIGH-END SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER A MAJORITY OF THE WATERS. SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TODAY, EVENTUALLY FALLING BELOW 5 FT IN THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING OR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, SEAS AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FT SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: WHILE SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY, THEY STILL REMAIN
ELEVATED (~3 TO 4 FT). THAT, PLUS A LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 10-13
SECONDS, WILL ALLOW A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY. RIP CURRENTS
REMAIN ELEVATED ON SUNDAY DUE TO CONTINUED LONG PERIOD SWELL.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW
NEAR TERM...AC/NB
SHORT TERM...SW/NB
LONG TERM...SW/NB
AVIATION...NB
MARINE...AJB
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