140
FXUS61 KAKQ 050027
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
827 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER REGION TONIGHT, GRADUALLY SHIFTS
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT LIKELY APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 815 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- CLEAR TONIGHT, WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
- MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY, PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
EVENING WX ANALYSIS INDICATES ~1025MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ALONG THE COAST OF SE VA/NE NC, RIDGING INLAND ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. THE SKY IS MAINLY CLEAR, WITH TEMPERATURES NOW PRIMARILY
IN THE LOW-MID 60S. NOTING THAT CURRENT DEW PTS ARE IN THE MID
50S TO AROUND 60F, ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO.
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED
TONIGHT, SO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ON TAP. LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION, OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER READINGS AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F. THESE VALUES ARE A
FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE NBM. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT,
AND PROBABLY WITH A HIGHER COVERAGE, EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT INLAND AND NEAR THE TIDAL RIVERS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HITTING PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SE VA AND NE NC THE HARDEST WITH A
MORE WIDESPREAD FOG BETWEEN ABOUT 08Z/4 AM AND 13Z/9 AM, WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE PATTERN AND THE TIME OF YEAR SO WILL NEED
TO MONITOR CLOSELY OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL
ISSUANCE OF SPS' AND/OR DENSE FOG ADVISORIES.
AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING FOG, VERY SIMILAR WX IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY, THOUGH MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER
COMPARED TO TODAY AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 F. THIS IS
AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS SOME. SKIES RANGE FROM SUNNY N TO MOSTLY-PARTLY
SUNNY S WITH A DEVELOPING SCT CU FIELD ACROSS SRN VA AND NE NC
IN THE AFTERNOON. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH IS NOT QUITE AS
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT WE SHOULD
STILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. FOG WILL ALSO AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- CONTINUED MILD AND PLEASANT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS LATER TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE AND JUST N OF BERMUDA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT FROM THE NW CONUS INTO THE
MIDWEST AS THE PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS EVOLUTION WILL GRADUALLY PUSH A
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION BY TUESDAY, BUT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE, REMAINING MILD BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 F, WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NE
NC. OVERNIGHT LOWS COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY NIGHT
AND LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY, THOUGH INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AS SHOWERS DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
- COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO END THE WEEK.
THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE
REMAINS SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH THE ECMWF/EPS SUITE A BIT FASTER THAN THE
GEFS/GFS. STILL, THE HIGHEST POPS (50-60%) ARE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL INFLUENCE THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A
DELINEATION OF COOLER (NORTHWEST) AND WARMER (SOUTHEAST)
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
ONLY A PORTION OF AREA. THE FRONTAL TIMING WILL ALSO DICTATE IF
THERE WILL BE ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY REFLECTED IN THE MODELS IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
THUS MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. WHILE
THIS FRONT LIKELY BREAKS THE RAIN-FREE STREAK FOR MOST AREAS AS IT
MOVES THROUGH, IT WILL NOT BE A PARTICULARLY WET PASSAGE AS THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AT A GOOD CLIP THROUGH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS SOME SORT OF LOW COULD SPIN UP ALONG A
LINGERING COASTAL TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW, BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 800 PM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING UNDER
A CLEAR SKY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED, HOWEVER, AND WITH
CALM CONDITIONS EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
RIC/PHF LOOK TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHC FOR SEVERAL HRS OF REDUCED
VSBYS, BUT HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS
AS WELL. VFR IS ANTICIPATED AFTER ANY FOG (AND POTENTIAL MIX W/
LOW STRATUS) BURNS OFF SUNDAY, WITH SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE
WEAK FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENT,
HOWEVER. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS WEDNESDAY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.
MARINE
AS OF 250 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH RIP RISK CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SEAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING-TONIGHT.
- BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT- THURSDAY EVENING WITH NE WINDS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED (3-4 FT N/4-5
FT S) DUE TO SWELL FROM DISTANT TROPICAL SYSTEMS.
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE GRADUALLY DRIFTING OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE BECOMING SE (~5 TO 10
KNOTS) SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SEASONALLY STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WHILE THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT, STILL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOLID-SCA CONDITIONS WITH
NE WINDS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF LOW-END
GALE GUSTS IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME (ESPECIALLY OVER THE OCEAN).
WILL ALLOW THE SCAS FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO RUN UNTIL 6 PM. SEAS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 5 FT BY MID TO LATE EVENING. SEAS
AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, BEFORE BUILDING BACK TO 6-
9 FT BY THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
RIP CURRENTS: THE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS ELEVATED ON SUNDAY DUE TO
CONTINUED LONG PERIOD SWELL BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...LKB/SW
SHORT TERM...SW/NB
LONG TERM...SW/NB
AVIATION...LKB/SW
MARINE...ERI
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