637
FXUS61 KAKQ 050704
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
304 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY AND MONDAY.
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT LIKELY APPROACHES AND CROSSES
THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 304 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT.
AN EXPENSIVE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANITC INTO THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. THIS HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION, PROVIDING OPTIMAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOG HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING, WITH A FEW LAND-BASED OBSERVATION SITES REPORTING
DEGRADED VISIBILITIES. THE FOG HAS NOT YET BECOME WIDESPREAD OR
DENSE, SO NO FOG PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. WITH DEW
POINTS A LITTLE HIGHER TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT DROPPED
QUITE AS LOW AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS AND ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOME TODAY,
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F TODAY, LEADING
TO A WARMER EARLY OCTOBER DAY. SOME SCATTERED LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA/NE NC THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HEADING INTO TONIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG IS POSSIBLE SO HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST. WHEN IS BECOMES MORE CLEAR WHERE THE THICKEST FOG WILL
DEVELOP, THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE UPDATED TO INCLUDE AREAS OF
FOG/WIDESPREAD FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 304 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- CONTINUED MILD AND PLEASANT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS LATER TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, CONTINUING TO
BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP PUMP IN A
MORE MODIFIED AIRMASS, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. ALOFT, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PLANTED
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY, THOUGH A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND STARTING
TO NUDGE THIS RIDGE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY, THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE SHOVED OFFSHORE AND SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MILD BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 F, WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NE NC.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY
NIGHT AND LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASED MOISTURE FILTERING
IN, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD SOME AREAS OF FOG
ON MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER, SO FOG MAY BE
LESS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 304 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AS SHOWERS DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
- COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO END THE WEEK.
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS (50-60%) ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY, LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING, AS THE FRONT MOVES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE EXACT TIMING AND SPEED OF THE FRONT WILL
INFLUENCE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH A DELINEATION OF COOLER (NORTHWEST) AND WARMER
(SOUTHEAST) TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. THE FRONTAL TIMING
WILL ALSO DICTATE IF THERE WILL BE ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE SOME
RAINFALL AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, IT WILL NOT BE A PARTICULARLY
WET PASSAGE AS THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AT A GOOD CLIP
THROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT THERE IS SOME
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, WITH SOME MODELS HINTING
THAT SOME SORT OF LOW COULD SPIN UP ALONG A LINGERING COASTAL
TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY CHANGES AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS
NECESSARY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 135 AM EDT SUNDAY...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY PREVAILING AT MOST TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING, CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY START TO DETERIORATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS FOG DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPOS ARE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 09Z THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF LATER THIS MORNING, SCT CUMULUS
COULD WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE COASTAL TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN
FEELING THE INFLUENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE
WEAK FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENT,
HOWEVER. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS WEDNESDAY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.
MARINE
AS OF 304 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH RIP RISK CONTINUES TODAY.
- BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF AT LEAST SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT -
THURSDAY EVENING WITH NE WINDS.
EARLY THIS MORNING, ~1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS ARE VARIABLE, GENERALLY RUNNING AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS. SEAS RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 FT AND WAVES IN THE BAY GENERALLY 1 FT
OR LESS (UP TO 2 FT AT THE MOUTH).
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS NEAR THE AREA TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DRIFTING
OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY, BEFORE
BECOMING SE (~5 TO 10 KNOTS) TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE WATERS ON LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING, WITH
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER A MAJORITY OF THE WATERS (NE
WINDS). A PERIOD OF LOW-END GALE GUSTS IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME (ESPECIALLY OVER THE OCEAN), THOUGH PROBABILITIES HAVE
DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM EARLIER. SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY,
EVENTUALLY AVERAGING 2 TO 3 FT LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, BEFORE
BUILDING BACK TO 5 TO 7+ FT BY THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
RIP CURRENTS: THE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS ELEVATED TODAY DUE TO
CONTINUED LONG PERIOD SWELL BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SW/NB
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...SW/NB
LONG TERM...SW/NB
AVIATION...LKB/NB
MARINE...AJB/ERI
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