952
FXUS61 KAKQ 051741
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
141 PM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY AND MONDAY.
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT LIKELY APPROACHES AND CROSSES
THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1035 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MID- ATLANTIC INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC THIS MORNING.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. ALOFT, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOME TODAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY. SOME SCATTERED LOW-
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA/NE NC THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HEADING
INTO TONIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE, SO HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MILDER COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S INLAND AND LOWER 60S
ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 304 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- CONTINUED MILD AND PLEASANT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS LATER TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, CONTINUING TO
BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP PUMP IN A
MORE MODIFIED AIRMASS, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. ALOFT, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PLANTED
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY, THOUGH A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND STARTING
TO NUDGE THIS RIDGE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY, THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE SHOVED OFFSHORE AND SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MILD BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 F, WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NE NC.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY
NIGHT AND LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASED MOISTURE FILTERING
IN, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD SOME AREAS OF FOG
ON MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER, SO FOG MAY BE
LESS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 304 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AS SHOWERS DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
- COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO END THE WEEK.
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS (50-60%) ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY, LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING, AS THE FRONT MOVES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE EXACT TIMING AND SPEED OF THE FRONT WILL
INFLUENCE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH A DELINEATION OF COOLER (NORTHWEST) AND WARMER
(SOUTHEAST) TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. THE FRONTAL TIMING
WILL ALSO DICTATE IF THERE WILL BE ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE SOME
RAINFALL AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, IT WILL NOT BE A PARTICULARLY
WET PASSAGE AS THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AT A GOOD CLIP
THROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT THERE IS SOME
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, WITH SOME MODELS HINTING
THAT SOME SORT OF LOW COULD SPIN UP ALONG A LINGERING COASTAL
TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY CHANGES AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS
NECESSARY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 140 PM EDT SUNDAY...
FEW-SCT CU HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE S/SW HALF OF
THE AREA WITH 3500-4500 FT CIGS. CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 KT, BECOMING CALM TONIGHT.
GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND
HIGHER DEW POINTS THAN LAST NIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG APPEARS PROBABLE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS OPTIMISTIC WITH VIS AND CIGS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT IFR/LIFR VIS AND/OR CIGS TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN COVERAGE OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS
AND LOW WITH RESPECT TO WHETHER IFR/LIFR VIS OR CIGS ARE
FAVORED. AS SUCH, TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED LATER
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MON MORNING. FOR NOW, HAVE ADDED PATCHY
FOG AND SCT002 CIGS TO THE TAFS UNTIL CONFIDENCE BECOMES
CLEARER. ANY FOG/STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY 14-15Z MON WITH
SOME FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON (CIGS
2500-3500 FT). WINDS REMAIN VARIABLE, INCREASING TO ~5 KT MON.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS A DRIER AIRMASS
MOVES IN.
MARINE
AS OF 304 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGH RIP RISK CONTINUES TODAY.
- BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF AT LEAST SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT -
THURSDAY EVENING WITH NE WINDS.
EARLY THIS MORNING, ~1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS ARE VARIABLE, GENERALLY RUNNING AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS. SEAS RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 FT AND WAVES IN THE BAY GENERALLY 1 FT
OR LESS (UP TO 2 FT AT THE MOUTH).
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS NEAR THE AREA TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DRIFTING
OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY, BEFORE
BECOMING SE (~5 TO 10 KNOTS) TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE WATERS ON LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING, WITH
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER A MAJORITY OF THE WATERS (NE
WINDS). A PERIOD OF LOW-END GALE GUSTS IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME (ESPECIALLY OVER THE OCEAN), THOUGH PROBABILITIES HAVE
DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM EARLIER. SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY,
EVENTUALLY AVERAGING 2 TO 3 FT LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, BEFORE
BUILDING BACK TO 5 TO 7+ FT BY THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
RIP CURRENTS: THE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS ELEVATED TODAY DUE TO
CONTINUED LONG PERIOD SWELL BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SW/NB
NEAR TERM...RMM/NB
SHORT TERM...SW/NB
LONG TERM...SW/NB
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJB/ERI
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