852
FXUS61 KAKQ 061746
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
146 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE LATE THIS WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A COASTAL LOW MAY
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR A PORTION OF THE
LOCAL AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 135 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY.
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
RIDGING ALOFT HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO RISE TO AROUND 80F AS OF
130 PM. EXPECT HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER WITH MOST IN THE
LOW-MID 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. CLOUDS CLEAR THIS EVENING
WITH CALM WINDS ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS
MAINLY SE VA/NE NC AND POTENTIALLY THE EASTERN SHORE. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER 50S INLAND AND LOWER 60S ALONG THE
COAST ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 320 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- CONTINUED MILD AND PLEASANT THROUGH TUESDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. AS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DURING THE DAY, CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN
TODAY'S TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH
THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH OUR AREA, CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN MOST AREAS RECEIVING AROUND 0.5" OF RAIN
WITH A SWATH OF 0.5-0.75" POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, CAN'T RULE OUT A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HAVE MAINTAINED A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLIER,
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE LOWER, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND MID-UPPER 70S FOR FAR SE VA/NE NC. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING IN A DRIER AIRMASS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. CLOUD COVER WILL WANE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL PLUMMET INTO THE
MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH 50S EXPECTED IN
SE VA/NE NC
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 320 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
- A COASTAL LOW IS POSSIBLE BY THIS WEEKEND AND MAY BRING RAIN
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
THURSDAY WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME OF THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON THUS FAR THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, WITH 50S ACROSS FAR SE VA AND COASTAL NE NC. IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES THAT SOME AREAS IN THE PIEDMONT COULD
DROP AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S. THE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL
GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AND THE
AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA WILL MODIFY SLIGHTLY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIALLY RAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, WITH A
POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP, BUT THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS
IT ALONG OUR COAST, WHILE OTHERS HAVE IT DISPLACED FURTHER OFFSHORE.
PENDING THE TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW, THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT WE
COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, THIS WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND, BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY MODEL TRENDS IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THIS DEVELOPING LOW CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NECESSARY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 145 PM EDT MONDAY...
SCT CU HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS
AROUND 4000FT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, VARIABLE 5-10 KT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME CALM
TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS COULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS MAINLY SE VA/NE NC
AND POTENTIALLY THE EASTERN SHORE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TONIGHT THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. AS SUCH, HAVE ONLY ADDED FOG TO THE ECG TAF AT THIS
TIME. SCT CU REDEVELOP TUE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING S 5-10
KT.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUE WITH
DEGRADED FLYING CONDITIONS ARRIVING TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON WED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WED NIGHT
INTO THU AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN.
MARINE
AS OF 320 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A GOOD CHANCE
OF AT LEAST SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NE WINDS.
- SCA CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY DUE TO SEAS) LIKELY CONTINUE FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
- THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS MODERATE AT ALL BEACHES TODAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE AND EXTENDS
BACK INTO THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS ARE LIGHT (~5 KNOTS) AND GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SE. SEAS RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 FT AND WAVES IN THE BAY 1 TO 2
FT.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
WINDS ~10 KT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT BY LATE TUESDAY WELL
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS INCREASE FURTHER TO
~15 KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY, WITH MARGINAL SCA POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN BAY. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS BECOME N-NE AT 20-25 KT BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING-NIGHT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 KT EXPECTED. WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF ~30 KT EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE A PERIOD
OF LOW-END GALE GUSTS IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME,
PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW ~15% FOR GALE GUSTS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE, AND ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 2-3 FT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SEAS QUICKLY BUILD BACK TO 5-8 FT BY THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
WHILE WINDS MAY DIMINISH A BIT BY FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT, SEAS LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFFSHORE. REGARDLESS,
WINDS MAY PICK BACK UP WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING.
RIP CURRENTS: THE RIP CURRENT RISK GRADUALLY DECREASES EARLY THIS
WEEK. HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY WED
NIGHT/THU DUE TO SHORT PERIOD LARGE BREAKING WAVES.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 320 AM EDT MONDAY...
NO COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COMBINED WITH MODERATELY STRONG NE
WINDS, AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS ADJACENT TO THE
LOWER CHES BAY/TIDAL JAMES ON THURSDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM/NB
SHORT TERM...RMM/NB
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJB/ERI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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