467
FXUS61 KAKQ 070502
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
102 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE LATE
THIS WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A COASTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN RAIN AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR A PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 930 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
INTERIOR SE.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING, WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE SKY HAS BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE LOW-MID 60S.
OVERALL, EXPECT A BIT LESS COVERAGE OF FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE
SFC HIGH OFFSHORE, AND A BIT MORE MIXING AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW AS THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH TO OUR WEST APPROACHES. BEST
CHC FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC. LOWS
TONIGHT PRIMARILY FROM 55 TO 60F, WITH LOWER 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 220 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- CONTINUED MILD AND PLEASANT THROUGH TUESDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
ALOFT, A RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE BY TUE
NIGHT AS A TROUGH TAKES IT'S PLACE. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE TUE, ALLOWING FOR MILD AND DRY WEATHER TO
CONTINUE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S (LOCALLY MID 80S) CONTINUE TUE.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SE ACROSS THE AREA ON WED WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG IT. THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A BIT
FASTER TIMING OF THE FRONT. AS SUCH, POPS INCREASE TO 60-80% ACROSS
THE NW HALF OF THE FA TUE NIGHT, INCREASING TO 80-95% WED AS THE
LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES SE THROUGH THE DAY. RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH 0.25-0.75" OF RAIN (MOST AROUND 0.5")
EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 1" ARE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY, CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS, HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. GIVEN THE PRECIP, HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON WED
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F
ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC. MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARRIVE WED NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 40S NW TO UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F SE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 220 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
- A COASTAL LOW IS POSSIBLE BY THIS WEEKEND AND MAY BRING RAIN
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
ALOFT, A TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BY THE WEEKEND, A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BECOMES POSITIVELY
TILTED AND ORIENTS FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN A TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN (CENTERED ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND) LATE
THIS WEEK, GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S INLAND (UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70F ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC) THU AND FRI (LOWER 70S
ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC FRI). HIGHS HAVE TRENDED COOLER FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS EACH DAY.
LOWS WILL BE QUITE COOL AS WELL WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S NW TO
MID 50S SE (UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST) THU NIGHT, UPPER 40S NW TO
UPPER 50S SE (AROUND 60F ALONG THE COAST) FRI AND SAT NIGHTS, AND
LOW-MID 50S (UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST) MON NIGHT. WILL NOTE THAT
THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WITH UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE FAR NW
PIEDMONT. NBM 25TH PERCENTILE HAD UPPER 30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH
NBM 10TH PERCENTILE SHOWING ~35F ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT. AS SUCH,
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE TEMPS TREND COOLER, GIVEN THAT THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE TO FROST
FORMATION.
THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, WITH A
POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP GIVEN STRONG
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT, BUT THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW IS A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS IT ALONG OUR COAST, WHILE OTHERS
HAVE IT DISPLACED FURTHER OFFSHORE. PENDING THE TRACK OF THIS
COASTAL LOW, THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD SEE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST,
THIS WEEKEND. HAVE EXPANDED CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95 WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FARTHER INLAND. HOWEVER, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY MODEL TRENDS IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THIS DEVELOPING LOW CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND ADJUST THE
FORECAST AS NECESSARY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE POSITION OF THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE W/ AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TYPICALLY IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG, THOUGH
PATCHY FOG/GROUND FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH ~12Z, PRIMARILY ACROSS INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC. SCT CU,
ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH WINDS BECOMING S AT AROUND 10 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO STAY W
OF THE MAIN TERMINALS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: DEGRADED FLYING CONDITIONS ARRIVE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A BREEZY NNE WIND AT THE COAST
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 220 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF AT LEAST SOLID SCA CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NE WINDS.
- SCA CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY DUE TO SEAS) LIKELY CONTINUE FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY
IMPACTS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE LOCAL WATERS WITH
VARIABLE WINDS OF ~5 KT AND 2-3 FT SEAS/1-2 FT. BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING S AT 5-10 KT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE. SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT BY LATE TUESDAY WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS INCREASE FURTHER TO ~15 KTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH MARGINAL
SCA POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN BAY. THE STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND CROSSES THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WINDS BECOME N-NE AT 20-25 KT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING-NIGHT WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 KT EXPECTED. WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON
THURSDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF ~30 KT EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PROBABILITIES FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS REMAIN IN THE
10-20% RANGE FOR MOST OF THIS TIME. HOWEVER, WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR A SHORT (~3 HOUR) PERIOD OF 35 KT GUSTS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING
THE FROPA WEDNESDAY EVENING. COULD CERTAINLY SEE THE NEED FOR AN SMW
OR TWO. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALES IS LOW
DESPITE THE STRONG CAA AS 925-950MB WINDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 25-30 KT RANGE FROM WED NIGHT-THU. THEREFORE, NO GALE WATCHES
WERE ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT
THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS QUICKLY BUILD BACK TO 6-9 FT BY THURSDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.
WHILE WINDS MAY DIMINISH A BIT BY FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT, SEAS LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED. THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SE CONUS COAST AND DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS NE TOWARD
LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING ITS EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK. REGARDLESS, WINDS WILL
LIKELY PICK BACK UP ON SAT/SAT NIGHT (WITH ELEVATED WINDS LASTING
INTO SUNDAY). SOLID SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY WITH A PERIOD OF
GALES POSSIBLE. SEAS OF 8-10 FEET OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL
THIS WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: THE RIP CURRENT RISK GRADUALLY DECREASES EARLY THIS
WEEK. HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY WED
NIGHT/THU DUE TO SHORT PERIOD LARGE BREAKING WAVES.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 220 PM EDT MONDAY...
NO COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COMBINED WITH MODERATELY STRONG NE
WINDS, MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS ADJACENT TO THE LOWER
CHES BAY AND TIDAL YORK/JAMES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...LKB/RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM/NB
AVIATION...AJB/LKB
MARINE...ERI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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