979
FXUS61 KAKQ 101917
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
317 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH DRY AND
SENSIBLE WEATHER. A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY, TRACKING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HEAVY RAIN, WINDY CONDITIONS, AND
COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE COAST. THE LOW
LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, FINALLY MOVING AWAY
BY TUESDAY. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS AND PREVAILS FOR THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER OVERCAST SKIES. LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR NW TO THE MID 60S IN THE FAR SE.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE N HAS SLID OFF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. WELL TO THE S, LOW PRESSURE IS STARTING TO
SPIN UP OFF THE COAST OF FL, RESULTING IN A SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH
ALONG THE SE COAST. ALOFT, THERE'S ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES AND A SECONDARY DIP IN THE PATTERN OVER THE SE CONUS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS MOVED IN OVER THE FA, BUT
OTHERWISE A PLEASANT DAY WITH COMFORTABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
AIR. LATEST OBS SHOW TEMPS IN THE MID 60S. DESPITE ONSHORE WINDS,
DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT A BIT OF A BREEZE, GUSTING AROUND 15-
20MPH AT THE COAST.
THE LOW NEAR FL REALLY STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN
A MORE PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA BY MORNING.
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AS A RESULT. ALSO, THERE IS A
LOW-END POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES BY THE EARLY MORNING AS THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD FROM THE LOW INCHES CLOSER. BEST
CHANCE WOULD BE CLOSE TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. NOT QUITE AS CHILLY
TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S IN THE FAR SE TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR NW WITH MOST OF
THE AREA SEEING LOWS SOMEWHERE IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW IMPACTS THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING RAIN, WIND, AND
COASTAL FLOODING HAZARDS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE
GIVEN DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS, BUT AREAS NEAR THE COAST
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING IMPACTS.
DEGRADED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE FA
STARTS SEEING IMPACTS OF THE BREWING COASTAL STORM. THE TREND
FROM THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
THE LOW. HAVE BEEN LEANING ON THE GEFS AND THE EURO ENS SINCE
THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THOSE TWO COMPARED TO THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THIS WOULD PLACE THE SFC LOW OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN SLOWLY TRAVELING NE
FROM THERE INTO MONDAY. SAT MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE DRY FOR
MOST PEOPLE, BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE PRIMARILY E OF I-95 (~30% POP). PRECIP THEN INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE SE WHERE
POPS JUMP UP TO 60%+. PRECIP THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THINKING THAT THIS COULD BE
THE TIME PERIOD WHEN THE BULK OF THE RAIN FALLS. HIGHEST POPS
ARE E OF I-95 (80%+), BUT THE ENTIRE AREA HAS LIKELY POPS. GOING
INTO SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NE. SHOULD SEE A SLOW TAPERING OF RAIN FROM SW TO NE MON AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AND AN UL RIDGE SLIDES
EAST; SHOWERS COULD LINGER FOR NE COUNTIES INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
DID HAVE TO INCREASE THE QPF A TOUCH TO ACCOMMODATE THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW. LATEST THINKING PUTS A STRIP OF 2-3" RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST, 1.5-2" ELSEWHERE E OF I-95, THEN TAPERING DOWN TO
~0.7" BETWEEN I-95 AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA. THIS LINES UP
PRETTY WELL WITH BOTH THE GEFS AND EURO ENS. IT IS NOT OUTSIDE THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITY, THOUGH, FOR LOCALIZED AREAS OF 3-4" CLOSE TO
THE COAST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF FLOODING
ALONG THE COAST (IN ADDITION TO TIDAL FLOODING, SEE SECTION
BELOW), WHICH IS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE DAYS 2 AND 3 ERO FROM THE WPC.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS ELEVATED ONSHORE WINDS. NE
WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE SAT AND SUN, PEAKING SOMETIME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST AND BAY SATURDAY EVENING THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT (GUSTS TO 50MPH
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST) AND 20-30MPH FURTHER INLAND. WIND GUSTS
OF 50+MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE
COAST SUNDAY. REMAINING RATHER BREEZY ON MONDAY ONCE WINDS SWITCH
TO THE NW BUT LESS SO THAN SUNDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY, WITH COOLER TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AREAWIDE SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 60 F SATURDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CHANCES FOR RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS
THE COASTAL LOW LINGERS OFFSHORE.
- SLOWLY DRYING OUT TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY THE MIDDLE AND
END OF NEXT WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHEST IN THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME AS THE
LOW COULD EITHER REMAIN OFFSHORE AND SLOWLY SPIN DOWN OR POTENTIALLY
ROTATE BACK TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SHOULD THE LATER SCENARIO
MATERIALIZE, UNSETTLED, BREEZY, AND WET CONDITIONS WOULD
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. IF IT REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE, IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED BY LATER MONDAY. EITHER WAY, BY
THIS TIME, THE LOW SHOULD BE RATHER WEAK WITH ONLY LIGHTER
RAINFALL AND LOWER WINDS. STILL EXPECT IT TO BE QUITE BREEZY
MONDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE NW. THE BLENDED APPROACH FROM THE
NBM KEEPS CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL, THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND
SEE NO REASON TO ADJUST THESE VALUES.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS THEN IS FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD DOWN TOWARD
THE REGION FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK AS A MAINLY DRY
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THEREFORE, MORE SENSIBLE AND DRIER WX IS
EXPECTED BY THEN. FORECAST HIGHS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S, WITH THE BEST SHOT OF ANY 70S ACROSS
THE SE. THESE TEMPS ARE A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 133 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
ALL TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS WILL START CREEPING NORTHWARDS TOMORROW
MORNING, WITH AT LEAST ECG AND RIC LIKELY SEEING LOWERED CIGS LATE
TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES START TO INCREASE
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW IN TIMING AND LOCATION TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. NORTHEAST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COASTAL SITES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH 8-10 KT SUSTAINED WINDS
AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW AT
ECG, ORF, AND PHF AND WILL EXPAND TO SBY AND RIC TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR CIGS, ELEVATED WINDS, AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN ARE LIKELY AS WE HEAD INTO LATER SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY..
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY.
- LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FROM SATURDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY. GALE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR THE BAY, RIVERS, SOUND AND NC COASTAL WATERS. STORM
WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE VA-MD COASTAL WATERS.
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE (~1033 MB) IS CENTERED NNE OF THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND, RIDGING S INTO
THE REGION. NE WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS, BUT
SPEEDS ARE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP SCAS
ACROSS THE UPPER BAY AND MD COASTAL WATERS SHORTLY. ELSEWHERE,
SCAS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY (EVEN WITH A PERIOD
OF BRIEFLY LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT). WAVES IN THE BAY ARE 2-3 FT
N, 3-4 FT S, WITH SEAS OFFSHORE 4-5 FT N AND 5-8 FT S.
THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OFF
THE COAST OF FL/GA SATURDAY, WHICH WILL TRACK NORTHWARD OVER OR
CLOSE TO OUR WATERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THE LOW REMAINS OF LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT,
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED OVER YESTERDAY'S 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE. THE GFS
IS STILL SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER AT BRINGING THE SFC LOW UP TO THE
NE NC/SE VA COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY, WHILE THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, THEN DEVELOPING A
BROADER SFC LOW OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTN. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT STRONG WINDS DEVELOP, PEAKING SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK/INTENSITY
DETAILS, THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT MARINE
HAZARDS, INCLUDING HIGH WINDS (POTENTIALLY TO STORM FORCE FOR
VA-MD OCEAN WATERS) AND DANGEROUS SEAS. PEAK WIND GUSTS RANGE
FROM 45-50 KT ON THE VA-MD COASTAL WATERS (WHERE A STORM WATCH
IS IN EFFECT), 40-45 KT IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND NC COASTAL
WATERS, AND 35-40 KT IN THE UPPER TIDAL RIVERS. MADE VERY
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY. THE GRADIENT
FINALLY STARTS TO RELAX BY MID WEEK WITH IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE 13-17 FT RANGE (SIG
WAVE HEIGHT), WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES UP TO 20-25 FT. SIG WAVES
IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY RANGE BETWEEN 5-8 FT, WITH 9-10 FT
POSSIBLE AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. AS WINDS DECREASE NEXT WEEK,
SO WILL THE SEAS, BUT ONLY GRADUALLY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 500 AM EDT FRIDAY..
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MAINLY LOW-END MINOR TO
NUISANCE FLOODING ACROSS THE OCEAN S OF WACHAPREAGUE, AND THE
LOWER CHES BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS FOR
THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN.
OTHERWISE, TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING
THE SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTN HIGH TIDE ACROSS A SIMILAR
REGION AS THE CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY (HAVE NOT EXTENDED
THE CURRENT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS GIVEN THAT THE HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW MINOR LEVELS).
LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, AS NE WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASE,
LIKELY TO GALE FORCE BY EARLY SUNDAY, A RAPID RISE IN ANOMALIES
IS EXPECTED (A SURGE INCREASE OF 1-2 FT IN ~12 HRS). THE HIGH
TIDE CYCLE OCCURRING LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IS THE
LOWER ASTRO TIDE, SO EVEN WITH A SHARP INCREASE, GENERALLY ONLY
MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED SO HAVE OPTED AGAINST A COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THE FOLLOWING HIGH TIDE, OCCURRING
AROUND NOON SUNDAY ALONG THE OCEAN, AND THROUGH THE AFTN
ELSEWHERE IS THE ANTICIPATED TIME FOR PEAK WATER LEVELS WITH
THIS EVENT. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD FROM THE NORTHERN NECK
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE BAY AND INTO THE
RAPPAHANNOCK, YORK, AND JAMES RIVERS, AS WELL AS MOST LOCATIONS
ALONG THE OCEAN. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY WHEN THIS FALLS WITHIN 48 HRS OF ONSET. THE HIGHEST
PROBS FOR ACHIEVING MAJOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS WILL BE VA BEACH, AND
THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AREAS, AS WELL AS PORTIONS UP THE JAMES
RIVER. PRECISE WATER LEVELS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED WIND DIRECTION, BUT THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE AT SEEING AT LEAST MODERATE FLOODING. ADDITIONAL
FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO MONDAY, THOUGH THIS BECOMES MORE
UNCERTAIN GIVEN TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE SFC LOW LIFTING NE
OF THE REGION (WITH A NW LOW LEVEL FLOW LEADING TO FALLING WATER
LEVELS).
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ093-095>098-100-524-525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ630-631.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632-634-
652-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ633.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ633-658.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ650.
STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ650-652-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...SW/NB
MARINE...LKB/RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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